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I couldn't have wished for a more exciting opening to this game. Watson just shot right off into the lead like there was no tomorrow, jetting ahead by thousands
by cryptoz 16y ago
I couldn't have wished for a more exciting opening to this game. Watson just shot right off into the lead like there was no tomorrow, jetting ahead by thousands! I was blown away. Then he slowly started to crumble a bit and his answers were faulty more and more. But his strategy is amazing! He hops from category to category, while most humans pick a category and stick with it. I wonder if IBM has him do that purely because it might throw the humans off a bit. Totally awesome. I can't wait for tonight's show!
- shkb 16y agoI suspect the hopping categories was to try and buy time to calculate what sort of questions would be asked in each. But it's first move of getting into the lead (and the daily double) I would say is a combination of good strategy and PSYOP.
- joezydeco 16y agoI thought Watson was searching for the daily double spot to jump ahead $1000 right away.
- ugh 16y agoAnd also to steal the humans their chance for a late comeback in the game.
- joezydeco 16y agooooh, good strategy.
- orangecat 16y agoThe daily double is equally likely to be under any unrevealed spot, so jumping between categories has no effect on the probability of hitting it.
- orangecat 16y agoOk, this is wrong. Ken Jennings said in an interview that the DDs are more likely to be in the bottom rows, so you actually can hunt for it.
- foresterh 16y agoIt looked like he went to the 4th row to find the daily double, then just went through all the cheapest questions, as he was most likely to answer those. He finished all of the $200s, then went to the $400s, etc. I don't think it was to trip up his opponents, I think it was to have a better chance at answering.
- AgentConundrum 16y agoHe hops from category to category, while most humans pick a category and stick with it. I noticed the same thing, but I really hoped it was unintentional. It doesn't feel like it's a fair fight otherwise, since it means he's exploiting a weakness intrinsic to his competitors. The whole point of this competition is to show that a computer can compete and win at a human level. If it weren't, then why force him to physically push a button to ring in? If Watson is intentionally jumping categories to confuse humans, then it sort of feels like he's cheating a bit. As I write this, I realize a lot of this comment is motivated by my bruised human ego, but it just doesn't feel quite right to me.
- steveklabnik 16y agoThe first rule of competitive game playing is that anything in the rules is... game. If it helps your bruised human ego, another human player could attempt to exploit this exact same weakness. (I don't know if Watson is programmed to do this or if it is an actual weakness of human players.)
- barrkel 16y agoI think this is precisely the thing about AI which makes it so interesting. An intelligence which is not a mere emulation of the human will be alien, and through its strangeness we can learn more both our limitations, as well as complement our own abilities.
- yock 16y agoI wonder if the Watson developers did this because they were unable to simulate the benefit human players get by graduating through progressively difficult questions in a category.
- hallman76 16y agoIt doesn't feel like it's a fair fight otherwise, since it means he's exploiting a weakness intrinsic to his competitors Late in the first round you can see Jennings change his strategy a bit -- he starts ringing in before he knows the answer. Jennings is exploiting the fact that Watson won't ring in until it has confidence in an answer.
- estel 16y agoI've seen elsewhere it was suggested that whereas humans will want to get used to the question style of each category and learn from each one as they progress to harder answers, Watson has no such issues with jumping straight for high-value questions in all categories.
- thangalin 16y agoIncorrect. Watch the IBM video where they explicitly state that Watson learns the category, as well.
- T-hawk 16y ago> He hops from category to category, while most humans pick a category and stick with it. Ken Jennings himself did that for the express reason of throwing off his opponents. As the category selector he would have an extra couple seconds to start thinking in that direction. Totally fair game for Watson to do too. I agree that Watson started with a higher value clue in order to look for the Daily Double. Statistically the fourth row has the highest concentration of them. DDs are valuable not just because of the opportunity to double up or bet more than the clue's actual value, but also because you get exclusive access to the question without buzzer competition. As for Watson's early lead, that happened because the clues chosen early happened to be the types of questions it could answer quickly and reliably. Computers are great at stuff like 4-letter words and searching Beatles song lyrics. Computers are less great at clues where the hint drives the answer, like the one about "don't name Voldemort" or the "Final" category where the hint is in the category name. It just so happened that those harder clues for Watson came after the easier clues.
- thangalin 16y agoA while back, before the game, I wrote to Ken about one of the videos IBM made about Watson. In it, someone said that Watson "learns" the category. The best strategy for humans, then, is to start at the highest value questions. When Ken jumped into a category, notice that he started at the highest values.
- T-hawk 16y ago> The best strategy for humans, then, is to start at the highest value questions. Also because doing that searches for Daily Doubles, which are concentrated at the higher value clues.