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Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New Coronavirus
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- guerrilla 7y agoWuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Global Cases (by Johns Hopkins CSSE) [1] 1. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
- inferiorhuman 7y agoGoogle's put the document on lockdown so if you want to save a copy of the data yourself this will get you an ODS file (for now): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yZv9w9zRKwrGTaR-YzmAqMefw4wMlaXocejdxZaTs6w/export?format=ods https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yZv9w9zRKwrGTaR-YzmA...
- Animats 7y agoUS State Department advisories: Travel Alert Level 4 Do Not Travel to Hubei - Tue, 28 Jan 2020 Travel Alert Level 3 Reconsider Travel to China - Tue, 28 Jan 2020 Health Alert Update – Novel Coronavirus in China - Sun, 26 Jan 2020 China Travel Advisory Update: Level 4 – Do Not Travel to Hubei Province - Fri, 24 Jan 2020
- roryrjb 7y agoSo reading or watching the news makes all this sound very worrying, but if you look up the amount of deaths from influenza every year, "Up to 650,000 respiratory deaths per year"[0] then this will just become a run-of-the-mill thing, or am I missing something here? 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza
- officialjunk 7y agoit might be less, the same or more. we don't know yet. it has potential to be more deadly than the flu because of the unknowns, including prevention and treatment.
- inferiorhuman 7y agoYes. The normal flu is very widespread and has a mortality rate of around 0.1%. The official figures out of Hubei are down to about 3.6% (closer to 5% yesterday). There are too few deaths outside of Hubei to draw any meaningful conclusion. To make an apples to oranges comparison you'd be looking on the order of tens of millions of deaths annually if we don't get the mortality and/or infection rate down.
- kenneth 7y agoThe Spanish flu has a similar mortality rate as this and managed to kill 5% of the world's entire population.
- NhanHo 7y agoI've been trying to understand the number from the Spanish flu and it seems utterly confusing for some reasons. The consensus seems to be 30% population of the world was infected, with a case-fatality rate of 2.5% (which is another commonly quoted number), it doesn't add up to 5% of the world's population. The case-fatality rate will have to be around 20% for it to kill that many people. This happens even in the same academic paper (for example: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291398/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291398/ ) > An estimated one third of the world's population (or ≈500 million persons) were infected and had clinically apparent illnesses (1,2) during the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. The disease was exceptionally severe. Case-fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other influenza pandemics (3,4). Total deaths were estimated at ≈50 million (5–7) and were arguably as high as 100 million (7). ?! Can anyone more knowledgable explain what is going on with all those numbers?
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- alperakgun 7y agoI'm afraid it won't be contained - and similar to other tough viruses it will kill millions in coming years.
- kenneth 7y agoI've been following this closely since Jan 2nd. This is looking like it will be far worse than SARS and MERS, and far harder to contain. I imagine it'll look a lot closer to the Spanish flu. I wonder what absolutely drastic measures China could implement to get this under control. Short of a total curfew of the country for a few weeks, I don't know what they can do to prevent a full blown pandemic at this stage.
- gexla 7y agoI believe we're only a couple days out from the total confirmed cases of Coronavirus to match the total confirmed cases of SARS. At that point, SARS will still have far more deaths. There's a lot of graphs on projections vs actual numbers since this thing started being heavily tracked. I don't know what sources are most authoritative. Each seem to work on different timelines but all show fast growth.
- kenneth 7y agoStatement and statistical model of the epidemic from HKU researchers. They're quite pessimistic. • Likely ~75k infections in China already • Chongqing likely the next big city to experience full uncontained outbreak • Drastic measures required to prevent full pandemic, including a drastic reduction in mobility (no large group gathering, no travel, etc) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwXMPsbxFfo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwXMPsbxFfo
- xorfish 7y agoA positive effect of a higher number of infection is, that it would reduce the fatality rate of the virus.
- kenneth 7y agoIndeed, but there's also very credible rumors saying that the number of dead patients in Wuhan is severely underreported. For example, this video shows someone walking around a hospital in Wuhan, where you see dead bodies in the hallways just sitting around. That doesn't happen when you only have 100 deaths in the province. That happens when you're so overwhelmed with dead patients that you just can't deal with it fast enough. If this is true, which I'm inclined to believe, then we're very likely looking at thousands of deaths already. https://twitter.com/ezracheungtoto/status/1220641000063848448 https://twitter.com/ezracheungtoto/status/122064100006384844...
- internet_user 7y agoNobody blockades 10 cities and quarantines 50 million people over 100 deaths. Shanghai closed all non essential businesses. Schools closed until Feb 17th. Hongkong is in state of emergency. Several military medical battalions have been deployed overnight in China. This is not a drill.
- orf 7y agoIsn’t it more likely that they are asleep than dead?
- carlmr 7y agoIsn't it already to late? It has two weeks incubation time roughly, it's already been observed in Europe and America? It's not contained in a small area in China anymore. I would bet that enough people are infected with it as we speak that it can sustain itself and no amount of quarantining will save us from it. The only option would be an instant complete travel, logistics and congregation ban around the world. Which is I without a global government.
- gexla 7y agoI don't think we know the answer to this yet. Without an answer, it pays to be paranoid.
- rimliu 7y agoIf I got it right there is not a single case of transmission outside of China reported. Yet.
- cstejerean 7y agoGive it another 2 weeks and we’ll know for sure. If those that returned from Wuhan to say the US were contagious prior to showing symptoms then anyone they infected prior to them showing symptoms won’t be symptomatic just yet. We’ll find out soon enough how bad this is.
- carlmr 7y agoGermany has a patient near munich that didn't travel to China.
- klohto 7y agoThis one is the worst one. The guy contracted it from a lady who was at training in the company. She contracted it when her parents from Wu-chan visited back in China. The guy has been in contact with 40 people apparently. No idea about the woman. This alone yields huge figures if the spread while in incubation period is confirmed.
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- gexla 7y agoIt would be interesting to see what the process is for testing for this, costs involved and what the bottlenecks are. For example, you might not even get treated in the Philippines if you don't bring money with you or don't have insurance. Once a panic sets in, can a hospital in a developing country even continue testing? Or do they start turning people away? Do hospitals in developing countries have the resources to mass test people? How much total cost is involved? Given the challenges, I imagine these confirmed cases are going to be seriously constrained vs actual cases which might even go to the hospital to get checked.
- crimsonalucard 7y agoWhy isn't quarantining all flights to and from china not an option? Lose a couple months of GDP vs. dying is not worth it?
- robjan 7y agoRemember that people travel to and from China. I'm pretty sure it's illegal for a country to prevent its own citizens from returning to their homeland.
- crimsonalucard 7y agoThis is what I don't understand. A global pandemic of epic proportions is about to occur and you're concerned about legality? Ship them back on a one way trip.
- timbit42 7y agoYou're assuming preventing death is a priority of the China government.
- crimsonalucard 7y agoNot talking about China. Talking about OTHER countries. https://www.google.com/flights?lite=0#flt=SFO./m/0l3cy.2020-02-17*/m/0l3cy.SFO.2020-03-02;c:USD;e:1;sd:1;t:f https://www.google.com/flights?lite=0#flt=SFO./m/0l3cy.2020-... Here flights to WUHAN brought to you be the USA. I'm assuming preventing death is the priority of ALL governments.
- ngcc_hk 7y agohttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...