Neil Ferguson, an epidemologist at Imperial College, suggested that the 2019 novel coronavirus’ Basic Reproduction Number (R0) [1] is about 2.5, which aligns wi

Neil Ferguson, an epidemologist at Imperial College, suggested that the 2019 novel coronavirus’ Basic Reproduction Number (R0) [1] is about 2.5, which aligns with figures from other research groups. The 1918 pandemic-causing flu’s R0 was between 2 and 3 [1] while seasonal flu’s figure is only 1.3 [2]. This is not to say everyone should panic as the strict containment policy that China and the Chinese adopted should help reduce the R0 significantly. However, the asymptomatic period is long, thus it remains to be seen what the full impact of this virus will be. Other countries may need a better policy to track high-risk individuals already in their territories. “Neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson R0 estimates for flu pandemics lie in the 1.5-2.5 range. Yes, Measles is much higher (10-15). An epidemic with an R0 of 2.5 could still infect between 60% and 90% of the population, depending on contact patterns and assuming no prior immunity. Not all might be symptomatic though.” https://mobile.twitter.com/neil_ferguson/with_replies https://mobile.twitter.com/neil_ferguson/with_replies [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number [2] https://www.newscientist.com/article/2231333-what-are-the-symptoms-of-the-new-coronavirus-and-how-deadly-is-it/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/2231333-what-are-the-sy...