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The odds of this naturally occurring in China are probably close to 1 in 4. And the odds of it happening in Wuhan are probably close to 3%. The odds of the Chi

The odds of this naturally occurring in China are probably close to 1 in 4. And the odds of it happening in Wuhan are probably close to 3%. The odds of the Chinese government making a super virus based on Coronavirus seem smaller than that, and the odds of it escaping the laboratory might be decent, but when you combine them, it's pretty slim. If this were some super strain of Smallpox, that would make a more convincing conspiracy. The odds of there being some plausible conspiracy by now are high.

TeMPOraL 7y ago
> The odds of the Chinese government making a super virus based on Coronavirus seem smaller than that, and the odds of it escaping the laboratory might be decent, but when you combine them, it's pretty slim. I don't think anyone is arguing that this is an outbreak of an unusually dangerous virus. It's just an unexpected outbreak of a new flu-levels-of-dangerous virus, and it happened suspiciously close to a BSL-4 facility. A facility like that stores dangerous viruses and works on them, it's not at all implausible somebody fucked up and something escaped containment.
- verroq 7y ago
  It’s funny because bats (and bat caves) are reservoirs of many viruses contained in BSL-4 facilities and they have no containment and frequently come into human contact.
  - TeMPOraL 7y ago
    I didn't even realize that until now.
- treis 7y ago
  >I don't think anyone is arguing that this is an outbreak of an unusually dangerous virus. It's not unusually dangerous. Viruses kill lots and lots of people every year. This one doesn't seem to be more dangerous than any other. It's just new.
- Supermancho 7y ago
  > it happened suspiciously close to a BSL-4 facility This facility is more likely placed because of opportunity for study in a high risk area. The consumption of random "sweet jungle meat" at the local markets likely has a legacy notoriety for such outbreaks.
CydeWeys 7y ago
I really hope nobody is working on the (insanely irrational) idea of creating a super virus. There's no way in hell you could use that as a weapon of war because there's no way you could ensure it doesn't leave the target country. And even the act of trying to make one is insanely dangerous; if it accidentally gets out, which is easily possible, now you're killing all your own people. I want to say that all government see the logic of this and haven't so much as attempted it. I don't think China would be this foolish.
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  There are powers definitely working on it. "Super" just doesn't mean "kills as much people as efficiently as possible". Ability to control the destruction is a crucial feature of any weapon. In the past, this perhaps meant viruses that fizzle out quickly, so they could be deployed on enemy territory. Today, with recent breakthroughs in genetic engineering, that likely means aiming for high selectivity - targeting ethnicity or lineage. Ultimately, people will be working on it no matter what, because bioweapons are to molecular biology as nuclear weapons are to nuclear physics. A crude and violent application of a field of knowledge of vital, cross-cutting importance to many areas of life.
  - CydeWeys 7y ago
    Do you have a source about people working on it? Or is this a blacks op kind of thing so no one would admit to it publicly anyway, thus making it an unfalsifiable statement?
    - TeMPOraL 7y ago
      I don't have a source per se, just somewhat high level of confidence based on the following (weak, circumstantial) evidence: - There was a lot of bioweapons R&D done in the XX century[0]; it all seems to have been abandoned between the 70s and the 90s, but since the desire for it is not gone, it would be atypical for humanity if it really all ended; - Biological sciences keep progressing; each year, developing bioweapons is easier than it was the year before, and since our control over biological systems grow, so (I believe) the allure of a controlled bioweapon. - You have people like John Sotos - Intel's Chief Medical Officer and a colonel in the Air National Guard - delivering talks like [1], going all serious about the threat of future bioweapons. He seems to think that this is a real danger. - My general tried and true heuristic that if something is within realms of technological feasibility and promises a clear economic or political benefit, it will be attempted, no matter how horrible it is. -- [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_warfare#List_of_BW_institutions,_programs,_projects_and_sites_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_warfare#List_of_BW_... [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKQDSgBHPfY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKQDSgBHPfY
rdtsc 7y ago
China has had wet markets since forever basically, how often do outbreaks of this magnitude occur in other such markets in other cities without those kind of labs. If this was a regular occurrence it might not be significant.

TeMPOraL 7y ago

> The odds of the Chinese government making a super virus based on Coronavirus seem smaller than that, and the odds of it escaping the laboratory might be decent, but when you combine them, it's pretty slim. I don't think anyone is arguing that this is an outbreak of an unusually dangerous virus. It's just an unexpected outbreak of a new flu-levels-of-dangerous virus, and it happened suspiciously close to a BSL-4 facility. A facility like that stores dangerous viruses and works on them, it's not at all implausible somebody fucked up and something escaped containment.

verroq 7y ago
It’s funny because bats (and bat caves) are reservoirs of many viruses contained in BSL-4 facilities and they have no containment and frequently come into human contact.
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  I didn't even realize that until now.
treis 7y ago
>I don't think anyone is arguing that this is an outbreak of an unusually dangerous virus. It's not unusually dangerous. Viruses kill lots and lots of people every year. This one doesn't seem to be more dangerous than any other. It's just new.
Supermancho 7y ago
> it happened suspiciously close to a BSL-4 facility This facility is more likely placed because of opportunity for study in a high risk area. The consumption of random "sweet jungle meat" at the local markets likely has a legacy notoriety for such outbreaks.

CydeWeys 7y ago

I really hope nobody is working on the (insanely irrational) idea of creating a super virus. There's no way in hell you could use that as a weapon of war because there's no way you could ensure it doesn't leave the target country. And even the act of trying to make one is insanely dangerous; if it accidentally gets out, which is easily possible, now you're killing all your own people. I want to say that all government see the logic of this and haven't so much as attempted it. I don't think China would be this foolish.

TeMPOraL 7y ago
There are powers definitely working on it. "Super" just doesn't mean "kills as much people as efficiently as possible". Ability to control the destruction is a crucial feature of any weapon. In the past, this perhaps meant viruses that fizzle out quickly, so they could be deployed on enemy territory. Today, with recent breakthroughs in genetic engineering, that likely means aiming for high selectivity - targeting ethnicity or lineage. Ultimately, people will be working on it no matter what, because bioweapons are to molecular biology as nuclear weapons are to nuclear physics. A crude and violent application of a field of knowledge of vital, cross-cutting importance to many areas of life.
- CydeWeys 7y ago
  Do you have a source about people working on it? Or is this a blacks op kind of thing so no one would admit to it publicly anyway, thus making it an unfalsifiable statement?
  - TeMPOraL 7y ago
    I don't have a source per se, just somewhat high level of confidence based on the following (weak, circumstantial) evidence: - There was a lot of bioweapons R&D done in the XX century[0]; it all seems to have been abandoned between the 70s and the 90s, but since the desire for it is not gone, it would be atypical for humanity if it really all ended; - Biological sciences keep progressing; each year, developing bioweapons is easier than it was the year before, and since our control over biological systems grow, so (I believe) the allure of a controlled bioweapon. - You have people like John Sotos - Intel's Chief Medical Officer and a colonel in the Air National Guard - delivering talks like [1], going all serious about the threat of future bioweapons. He seems to think that this is a real danger. - My general tried and true heuristic that if something is within realms of technological feasibility and promises a clear economic or political benefit, it will be attempted, no matter how horrible it is. -- [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_warfare#List_of_BW_institutions,_programs,_projects_and_sites_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_warfare#List_of_BW_... [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKQDSgBHPfY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKQDSgBHPfY

rdtsc 7y ago

China has had wet markets since forever basically, how often do outbreaks of this magnitude occur in other such markets in other cities without those kind of labs. If this was a regular occurrence it might not be significant.