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I would not be surprised by that at all. Every Asia-focused analyst will tell you that the only aspect of China's state-reported numbers you can assume with a

I would not be surprised by that at all. Every Asia-focused analyst will tell you that the only aspect of China's state-reported numbers you can assume with a high degree of confidence is that they're heavily massaged for PR purposes.

sterlind 7y ago
Official numbers yes, but sometimes behavior leaks. What are wealthy/well-connected Chinese businesspeople and officials doing? Maybe there's some insider trading or money moving that could shed light on the real situation?
- bobthepanda 7y ago
  IIRC people used to look at things like electricity and energy use to determine real Chinese GDP growth, but I would imagine this has become less useful as the Chinese economy transitions away from heavy polluting industry and towards higher energy efficiency.
  - handedness 7y ago
    That transition is still a ways off.
  - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
    That is actually called the Li Keqiang index. Unfortunately, Li Keqiang has been mostly sidelined by Xi Jinping.
yorwba 7y ago
Sometimes it's also possible to draw inferences by observing how the numbers were massaged. For example if you look at the red graph of confirmed cases at [1], there's a very noticeable jump from 1-17 to 1-18. Coincidentally, the third session of the 13th Hubei Provincial People's Congress concluded on January 17. [2] [1] https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia [2] http://en.hubei.gov.cn/news/newslist/202001/t20200119_2006424.shtml http://en.hubei.gov.cn/news/newslist/202001/t20200119_200642...
- dis-sys 7y ago
  That jump was explained in details when it happened - test kits were made available shortly before that date. To be more specific, first batch of test kits were delivered to Wuhan on the 16th Jan [1]. [1] http://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_5588213 http://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_5588213
  - yorwba 7y ago
    That explains why the speed of diagnosis increased, thanks. Do you have a similarly good explanation for why the lab tests that, starting with 59 cases of unknown origin on January 5 [1], had confirmed 41 cases of coronavirus by January 11 [2] failed to detect any new cases until the better test kits arrived? [1] http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020010509020 http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020010509020 [2] http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020011109035 http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020011109035

sterlind 7y ago

Official numbers yes, but sometimes behavior leaks. What are wealthy/well-connected Chinese businesspeople and officials doing? Maybe there's some insider trading or money moving that could shed light on the real situation?

bobthepanda 7y ago
IIRC people used to look at things like electricity and energy use to determine real Chinese GDP growth, but I would imagine this has become less useful as the Chinese economy transitions away from heavy polluting industry and towards higher energy efficiency.
- handedness 7y ago
  That transition is still a ways off.
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  That is actually called the Li Keqiang index. Unfortunately, Li Keqiang has been mostly sidelined by Xi Jinping.

yorwba 7y ago

Sometimes it's also possible to draw inferences by observing how the numbers were massaged. For example if you look at the red graph of confirmed cases at [1], there's a very noticeable jump from 1-17 to 1-18. Coincidentally, the third session of the 13th Hubei Provincial People's Congress concluded on January 17. [2] [1] https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia [2] http://en.hubei.gov.cn/news/newslist/202001/t20200119_2006424.shtml http://en.hubei.gov.cn/news/newslist/202001/t20200119_200642...

dis-sys 7y ago
That jump was explained in details when it happened - test kits were made available shortly before that date. To be more specific, first batch of test kits were delivered to Wuhan on the 16th Jan [1]. [1] http://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_5588213 http://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_5588213
- yorwba 7y ago
  That explains why the speed of diagnosis increased, thanks. Do you have a similarly good explanation for why the lab tests that, starting with 59 cases of unknown origin on January 5 [1], had confirmed 41 cases of coronavirus by January 11 [2] failed to detect any new cases until the better test kits arrived? [1] http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020010509020 http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020010509020 [2] http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020011109035 http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020011109035