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Yang's campaign has been consistently growing and growing as other campaigns have dropped out. He raised $16.5M last quarter. Polls show him at 5%+ with an up a

Yang's campaign has been consistently growing and growing as other campaigns have dropped out. He raised $16.5M last quarter. Polls show him at 5%+ with an up arrow attached to it. And that's not counting that polls don't capture his base (first-time voters, independents, disaffected conservatives). As for the article, I'll address it in another comment.

dragonwriter 7y ago
> Yang's campaign has been consistently growing and growing as other campaigns have dropped out. His support is consistently enough nonzero across multiple polls that you can say he has some support, but it's often within the margin of error of zero on individual polls. He's not gaining enough to have a welk's chance in a supernova of winning. On the other hand, he generally leads NY Times-endorsed Klobuchar (and yet, pollsters are less likely to include him in their polls), so there's that.
- ilaksh 7y ago
  Most recent poll has Yang at 8% nationally, beating Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar. And Yang has been left of several polling questions entirely (whereas Klobuchar and Buttgieg always included) and left out of several graphics on TV. Which is to say, he has been written off prematurely and in fact is gaining massively.
  - dragonwriter 7y ago
    > Most recent poll has Yang at 8% nationally, beating Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar. Paying attention to individual polls produces more noise than useful information; you get more value (though less cherry-picking opportunities) from a poll aggregator like 538s. But if you want to play that game, the most recent national primary poll I can find that includes Yang has him at 3%, the best recent polling was at 5% in a couple of polls about two weeks ago. [0] The only 8% for him I can find is a poll of voters under 30. [1] > Which is to say, he has been written off prematurely and in fact is gaining massively. No, Bloomberg—who started much later and actually is polling in the neighborhood of 8% now—is gaining massively. Yang's been bouncing around between 2-5% with no real trend since October; he's not gaining or losing anything that isn't small enough to be obscured by noise. [0] see the list of polls here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary... [1] https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/new-danger-younger-voters-not-jazzed-about-democrats-yang-8-buttigieg-3 https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/new-da...
    - hanniabu 7y ago
      If he is left out of numerous polls, then I don't see how an aggregate would be very accurate to portray his numbers.
      - dragonwriter 7y ago
        A naive aggregate (e.g., a simple or recency-weighted average) wouldn't, but 538 and some others aren't using naive aggregates.
    - ilaksh 7y ago
      Bloomberg has spent $250 million and is still trailing Yang in the latest Emerson Poll. Which you would have found if you were looking for it.
      - dragonwriter 7y ago
        > Bloomberg has spent $250 million and is still trailing Yang in the latest Emerson Poll. Bloomberg is also at over 3x Yang's support in the Ipsos poll that covers the same time as that Emerson poll, and ahead of Yang by a similar amount in most othere recent polls that are within a couple days of that Emerson poll. Now, it could be that the Emerson poll is showing a real phenomenon that appeared suddenly and that Ipsos missed, but its vastly more likely that its just a statistical outlier blip.

dragonwriter 7y ago

> Yang's campaign has been consistently growing and growing as other campaigns have dropped out. His support is consistently enough nonzero across multiple polls that you can say he has some support, but it's often within the margin of error of zero on individual polls. He's not gaining enough to have a welk's chance in a supernova of winning. On the other hand, he generally leads NY Times-endorsed Klobuchar (and yet, pollsters are less likely to include him in their polls), so there's that.

ilaksh 7y ago
Most recent poll has Yang at 8% nationally, beating Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar. And Yang has been left of several polling questions entirely (whereas Klobuchar and Buttgieg always included) and left out of several graphics on TV. Which is to say, he has been written off prematurely and in fact is gaining massively.
- dragonwriter 7y ago
  > Most recent poll has Yang at 8% nationally, beating Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar. Paying attention to individual polls produces more noise than useful information; you get more value (though less cherry-picking opportunities) from a poll aggregator like 538s. But if you want to play that game, the most recent national primary poll I can find that includes Yang has him at 3%, the best recent polling was at 5% in a couple of polls about two weeks ago. [0] The only 8% for him I can find is a poll of voters under 30. [1] > Which is to say, he has been written off prematurely and in fact is gaining massively. No, Bloomberg—who started much later and actually is polling in the neighborhood of 8% now—is gaining massively. Yang's been bouncing around between 2-5% with no real trend since October; he's not gaining or losing anything that isn't small enough to be obscured by noise. [0] see the list of polls here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary... [1] https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/new-danger-younger-voters-not-jazzed-about-democrats-yang-8-buttigieg-3 https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/new-da...
  - hanniabu 7y ago
    If he is left out of numerous polls, then I don't see how an aggregate would be very accurate to portray his numbers.
    - dragonwriter 7y ago
      A naive aggregate (e.g., a simple or recency-weighted average) wouldn't, but 538 and some others aren't using naive aggregates.
  - ilaksh 7y ago
    Bloomberg has spent $250 million and is still trailing Yang in the latest Emerson Poll. Which you would have found if you were looking for it.
    - dragonwriter 7y ago
      > Bloomberg has spent $250 million and is still trailing Yang in the latest Emerson Poll. Bloomberg is also at over 3x Yang's support in the Ipsos poll that covers the same time as that Emerson poll, and ahead of Yang by a similar amount in most othere recent polls that are within a couple days of that Emerson poll. Now, it could be that the Emerson poll is showing a real phenomenon that appeared suddenly and that Ipsos missed, but its vastly more likely that its just a statistical outlier blip.