5 ms·

qe is just overnight rate maintenance in the post-2008 world if you're looking for a 'black swan' economic collapse event, look for a lot of outstanding debt a

qe is just overnight rate maintenance in the post-2008 world if you're looking for a 'black swan' economic collapse event, look for a lot of outstanding debt and the possibility of an interest rate spike on that debt

blackrock 7y ago
A lot of outstanding debt? Student Loans. You need to make as much money as a doctor to afford housing. So did everyone become a doctor in the past 10 years? Personal Auto Loans, although this seems rather localized. Business Loans used for stock buy-backs, so executives could pay themselves a nice bonus. Can some of these businesses really pay back those loans? Municipal bonds used for funding construction in areas with no economical viability.
- uwuhn 7y ago
  >You need to make as much money as a doctor to afford housing. So did everyone become a doctor in the past 10 years? Plenty of people who aren't doctors can make doctor money now. Just look at tech.
  - blaser-waffle 7y ago
    > Plenty of people who aren't doctors can make doctor money now. Just look at tech. > Plenty Plenty of tech folks make north of six-figures and often do better than most, but neurosurgeons make $800k, and plenty of mid-level medical types can pull $300K+. I personally know a dentist making "in the ballpark of 400" (his words) in the Washington DC 'burbs. There are certainly IT/CS gigs paying north of $600K -- they're discussed all the time here on HN -- but those don't really exist outside of SV and maybe a handful of other areas, and generally require a pedigree that, while not a Med School, are still fairly non-trivial. Your ITT-Tech trained Active Directory Admin isn't going to make anything near GP or Dermatologist money -- most tech, even with real degrees and certs, wont.
    - uwuhn 7y ago
      Specialized surgeons in the US are the top 1% of the field, especially if they own their own practice. That's really not a fair comparison. Especially when you account for artificial control/capture of supply and demand through the American medical system, which includes everything from schooling through residencies, all the way up to employment and licensing. Lots of doctors make under $200k. I would say the majority do, because the majority don't own their own practices (partly nor in whole). Most doctors in the US are just salaried internists. I think more than 10% of SWE with experience in the US are making that much or more when you account for compensation that is not pure salary.
      - wayoutthere 7y ago
        > I think more than 10% of SWE with experience in the US are making that much or more when you account for compensation that is not pure salary. I live in a big US city. We have one large tech employer which pays engineers ~125-150k (they max out at 200k for principals in specialized areas). At almost every other company in town, the going salary for a developer is 80-100k. The latter type of job is far more representative of engineering jobs in the country. We told everyone "go do STEM and make bank at Google!" Meanwhile there aren't enough of those top-end jobs to go around, and a lot of folks who didn't go to a name-brand university or have friends in the right places work for (comparatively) little money.
      - moneywoes 7y ago
        Physician average was $300k in the US https://www.medscape.com/slideshow/2019-compensation-overview-6011286 https://www.medscape.com/slideshow/2019-compensation-overvie.... I hate to say it as someone in the tech field but they have us best in compensation. Any suggestions how I can bump up my compensation as a junior developer in low col area without a fancy uni degree?
  - blackrock 7y ago
    The problem with comparing doctors to techs, is that while a senior software developer may make as much as a doctor’s salary (from 10 years ago), instead, the doctor’s salary (of today) has easily kept up with inflation. An Anesthesiologist makes over $250,000 annually. Try making that as a senior tech. A Physician’s Assistant makes over $170,000 annually. Easily beating an average senior software engineer. And they’re not even medical doctors. Nurses make over $125,000 easily, especially with their mandatory overtime schedules baked into their union agreement. And here’s the kicker: because women make up a larger share of medical professionals, then you have a situation where doctors end up marrying other doctors or nurses. Which is good for them, but guess what they do? They buy up the expensive houses. And then they buy their second or third houses, thus pricing normal people out of that also.
    - mywittyname 7y ago
      > Nurses make over $125,000 easily Maybe in California, but most of the US is not union and most nurses do not make anywhere close to this. $30-40/hr is much more typical. That salary is far about the top 10% of nursing salaries (which is $106k). https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/registered-nurses.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/registered-nurses.htm
    - Ancalagon 7y ago
      Where are you getting these numbers? I have a number of PA and Nurse friends and NONE of them make that kind of money.
      - blackrock 7y ago
        Where do you live, and how much do they make?
- rayiner 7y ago
  > Student Loans. You need to make as much money as a doctor to afford housing. So did everyone become a doctor in the past 10 years? Only in a handful of cities.
  - heavyset_go 7y ago
    The jobs that pay well enough to afford housing elsewhere are in those cities.
    - rayiner 7y ago
      Not at all. Median household income in Kansas City is $45,000. The median home price is $192,000 (4x income). Median income in San Francisco is slightly over double at $95,000. But the median house price is more than quadruple, at $1.7 million (18x income). Median household income in Manhattan is $85,000. Median home price is $1,000,000 (11x income). DC is a bit better. Median income is $85,000 and median home price is around $620,000 (7x income). Of course it goes without saying the median house in Kansas City is bigger than the median houses in those cities. Also, the income difference is less than a factor of two for the same person. 57% of people in San Francisco have a college degree, versus 45% of people in Kansas City. So part of the difference in median income is due to the difference in education, not the difference in local salaries.
      - moneywoes 7y ago
        Knowing this, do most people just move to the Bay for a short period of time?
        imtringued 7y ago
        Americans are moving away from the bay area. Those who stay have immigrated from another country.
      - thedaemon 7y ago
        I don't think anyone chooses Kansas or Missouri (depending on which Kansas City you are talking about) as a place to move to.
- kortilla 7y ago
  > Business Loans used for stock buy-backs, so executives could pay themselves a nice bonus. Can some of these businesses really pay back those loans? That’s not a thing. The debt taken on for a stock buyback would depress the stock price as much as the purchase would increase the price.

blackrock 7y ago

A lot of outstanding debt? Student Loans. You need to make as much money as a doctor to afford housing. So did everyone become a doctor in the past 10 years? Personal Auto Loans, although this seems rather localized. Business Loans used for stock buy-backs, so executives could pay themselves a nice bonus. Can some of these businesses really pay back those loans? Municipal bonds used for funding construction in areas with no economical viability.

uwuhn 7y ago
>You need to make as much money as a doctor to afford housing. So did everyone become a doctor in the past 10 years? Plenty of people who aren't doctors can make doctor money now. Just look at tech.
- blaser-waffle 7y ago
  > Plenty of people who aren't doctors can make doctor money now. Just look at tech. > Plenty Plenty of tech folks make north of six-figures and often do better than most, but neurosurgeons make $800k, and plenty of mid-level medical types can pull $300K+. I personally know a dentist making "in the ballpark of 400" (his words) in the Washington DC 'burbs. There are certainly IT/CS gigs paying north of $600K -- they're discussed all the time here on HN -- but those don't really exist outside of SV and maybe a handful of other areas, and generally require a pedigree that, while not a Med School, are still fairly non-trivial. Your ITT-Tech trained Active Directory Admin isn't going to make anything near GP or Dermatologist money -- most tech, even with real degrees and certs, wont.
  - uwuhn 7y ago
    Specialized surgeons in the US are the top 1% of the field, especially if they own their own practice. That's really not a fair comparison. Especially when you account for artificial control/capture of supply and demand through the American medical system, which includes everything from schooling through residencies, all the way up to employment and licensing. Lots of doctors make under $200k. I would say the majority do, because the majority don't own their own practices (partly nor in whole). Most doctors in the US are just salaried internists. I think more than 10% of SWE with experience in the US are making that much or more when you account for compensation that is not pure salary.
    - wayoutthere 7y ago
      > I think more than 10% of SWE with experience in the US are making that much or more when you account for compensation that is not pure salary. I live in a big US city. We have one large tech employer which pays engineers ~125-150k (they max out at 200k for principals in specialized areas). At almost every other company in town, the going salary for a developer is 80-100k. The latter type of job is far more representative of engineering jobs in the country. We told everyone "go do STEM and make bank at Google!" Meanwhile there aren't enough of those top-end jobs to go around, and a lot of folks who didn't go to a name-brand university or have friends in the right places work for (comparatively) little money.
    - moneywoes 7y ago
      Physician average was $300k in the US https://www.medscape.com/slideshow/2019-compensation-overview-6011286 https://www.medscape.com/slideshow/2019-compensation-overvie.... I hate to say it as someone in the tech field but they have us best in compensation. Any suggestions how I can bump up my compensation as a junior developer in low col area without a fancy uni degree?
- blackrock 7y ago
  The problem with comparing doctors to techs, is that while a senior software developer may make as much as a doctor’s salary (from 10 years ago), instead, the doctor’s salary (of today) has easily kept up with inflation. An Anesthesiologist makes over $250,000 annually. Try making that as a senior tech. A Physician’s Assistant makes over $170,000 annually. Easily beating an average senior software engineer. And they’re not even medical doctors. Nurses make over $125,000 easily, especially with their mandatory overtime schedules baked into their union agreement. And here’s the kicker: because women make up a larger share of medical professionals, then you have a situation where doctors end up marrying other doctors or nurses. Which is good for them, but guess what they do? They buy up the expensive houses. And then they buy their second or third houses, thus pricing normal people out of that also.
  - mywittyname 7y ago
    > Nurses make over $125,000 easily Maybe in California, but most of the US is not union and most nurses do not make anywhere close to this. $30-40/hr is much more typical. That salary is far about the top 10% of nursing salaries (which is $106k). https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/registered-nurses.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/registered-nurses.htm
  - Ancalagon 7y ago
    Where are you getting these numbers? I have a number of PA and Nurse friends and NONE of them make that kind of money.
    - blackrock 7y ago
      Where do you live, and how much do they make?
rayiner 7y ago
> Student Loans. You need to make as much money as a doctor to afford housing. So did everyone become a doctor in the past 10 years? Only in a handful of cities.
- heavyset_go 7y ago
  The jobs that pay well enough to afford housing elsewhere are in those cities.
  - rayiner 7y ago
    Not at all. Median household income in Kansas City is $45,000. The median home price is $192,000 (4x income). Median income in San Francisco is slightly over double at $95,000. But the median house price is more than quadruple, at $1.7 million (18x income). Median household income in Manhattan is $85,000. Median home price is $1,000,000 (11x income). DC is a bit better. Median income is $85,000 and median home price is around $620,000 (7x income). Of course it goes without saying the median house in Kansas City is bigger than the median houses in those cities. Also, the income difference is less than a factor of two for the same person. 57% of people in San Francisco have a college degree, versus 45% of people in Kansas City. So part of the difference in median income is due to the difference in education, not the difference in local salaries.
    - moneywoes 7y ago
      Knowing this, do most people just move to the Bay for a short period of time?
      - imtringued 7y ago
        Americans are moving away from the bay area. Those who stay have immigrated from another country.
    - thedaemon 7y ago
      I don't think anyone chooses Kansas or Missouri (depending on which Kansas City you are talking about) as a place to move to.
kortilla 7y ago
> Business Loans used for stock buy-backs, so executives could pay themselves a nice bonus. Can some of these businesses really pay back those loans? That’s not a thing. The debt taken on for a stock buyback would depress the stock price as much as the purchase would increase the price.