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Chart: Brexit Costs Nearly Match UK's Total EU Contributions

34 points by laktak 7y ago

CtrlAltEngage 7y ago
It's almost like it was a terrible idea that no one with a brain would have voted for...
- arethuza 7y ago
  I'm a pretty passionate Remainer, but characterising people on the other side of the argument like that really doesn't help.
  - tasubotadas 7y ago
    Doesn't help but it still is an accurate description.
    - frereubu 7y ago
      Not necessarily. Some of them just had different priorities - giving the political establishment a kicking - after a decade of unneccessary austerity. I strongly disagree with those priorities, and think they shot themslves in the foot in the most terrible way, but to characterise 52% of the people who voted as stupid is to miss the point.
      - makomk 7y ago
        It also wasn't entirely inappropriate as a way of giving the UK political establishment a good kicking, given that they'd been using the EU for decades as a way of pushing through laws they knew voters didn't want without that pesky business of having to publicly back them and get MPs to do the same. Remain supporters love to point to the fact that many unpopular EU laws were actually pushed for by the UK government as proof Leave supporters are stupid to blame the EU, but I don't think that argument flies.
    - roenxi 7y ago
      It is pretty obvious that a large number of people disagree with the characterisation. Rather than hurling abuse, why not go a little further and explain what your objections are? Then maybe they'll change their minds instead of writing off opinions such as yours and the thread parent. It is rare to persuade people by throwing in the towel on explaining. Add some reasons.
      - tasubotadas 7y ago
        >change their minds instead of writing off opinions such as yours and the thread parent. >It is rare to persuade people by throwing in the towel on explaining. TBH, I don't think you can reason with people like that. If that's your cup of tea, please do. Maybe you will make the world a better place. In the meantime, I'll be definitely making my world better, by avoiding brexiters, antivaxers, flat-earthers and other crazies. >Rather than hurling abuse Technically, I don't think that that matters, as I am not going and I am not insulting anybody specifically (if somebody takes an offence about such a general statement on the internet, it's kinda their problem). But if anybody would ask me to support their stance on pro-brexit, I would gladly call them (brexiters) an idiot. It really takes audacity to defend such a "move" where everybody loses.
    - _Understated_ 7y ago
      Your comment is the first one I've ever downvoted on here. It's not an accurate description. Far from it. I consider myself to be smart. I sought out as much data as I could before deciding to vote leave and I am sure I was not the only one. The EU pact was originally trade-related. It wasn't about governance. That's all I want. Edit: To the person or people that downvoted me, any chance of an explanation?
      - frereubu 7y ago
        I voted remain, but can understand your specific viewpoint despite not wanting what you do. But I'm curious - did you think that was what you were voting for when you voted to leave? Vote Leave's campaign was so nebulous that it felt really hard to understand what they were actually campaigning for. Also, political realities aside, would you (like Jacob Rees-Mogg did before the referendum) be interested in the results of a second referendum now that we know what the actual terms of the deal are? Edit: the downvote didn't come from me.
        _Understated_ 7y ago
        First, I'm from Scotland and I also voted against independence, fwiw. I don't watch the news, too stage-managed and depressing but I still seek out information when I need to as I still know what's going on at a high level: I just don't see all the death and daily politicking (sp?). My issue with the EU (Now, I understand the nuances with the European Commission etc. but let's take it as "the EU" for the purposes of argument) is accountability. We have 650 MP's here in the UK deciding our fate for us. We don't need any more. The EU pact was originally about trade deals. I get governance from my locally elected MP's, I don't need anyone in Brussels deciding the fate of my country. It wasn't xenophobia as many MP's painted it, it was about accountability and governance. For me, at least. In terms of the deal we would get when we left? I didn't care and I still don't. We'll be fine. The 350 million bullshit was just that... bullshit! I knew it at the time. Both sides would have probably lied through their teeth or stretched the truth way beyond reality: we saw that with the first Scottish independence referendum where the SNP figures were based on an oil price that hit a one-day high (I believe... it was a while back!). If people trust their politicians to tell them the truth, or to put their interests at heart then that's the problem right there imo. And as for the second referendum, I'm not sure I would. People get cold feet. Also, people are easily swayed. I'm not afraid to say that I wouldn't want another one as I may not get the result I wanted. But that aside... we voted. We took a legal vote and the result is in. There would be the same shenanigans, lies and bullshit next time round anyway! Edit: I forgot about something. Sir Tom Hunter commissioned a study on the effects of leaving the EU. It was from scholars and such. So it was based (hopefully) on data more than rhetoric, votes and soundbites. It didn't pick a side, it just gave all the info it could to allow an informed decision. I'd made my mind up by then but it was informative but, to be honest, still quite speculative as there very little actual data to go on. I trusted something like that far more than anything from a politician. Edit2: Guys, the downvotes. C'mon! This isn't Reddit. By all means downvote but let's hear your argument. There are very few places you can go to get both sides of an argument where both parties don't resort to calling each other Nazi's. Even if you don't agree with me, tell me why please
    - uncle_j 7y ago
      No it isn't. The money argument isn't a valid argument for the vast majority of people that voted to Leave. The people that voted leave just didn't think the economic argument is as important as you think it is. That doesn't make them stupid it simply means they have different priorities then you do.
      - arethuza 7y ago
        "No it isn't. The money argument isn't a valid argument for the vast majority of people that voted to Leave." The 350 million a week message was a vital part of the Vote Leave strategy - and given that it was Dominic Cummings in charge there would have been hard data to support its appeal.
        uncle_j 7y ago
        I don't think that would have swayed as many votes as you think it does. England has been euro-skeptic since Henry VIII. David Starky actually does some really good lectures about it. It is part of the Zeitgeist of this country.
- dekrg 7y ago
  If actually believe that chart then it just might be that you are the one without a brain.
  - thomasedwards 7y ago
    Sorry if facts hurt you, but if you look at the source and reference, it’s pretty clear it’s a disaster.
    - dekrg 7y ago
      What facts would those be? There are no facts there about brexit costs only speculation by Bloomberg about potential lost economic growth.
- valdiorn 7y ago
  It's the Dictator Problem from game theory; in general, if humans feel like you're not getting an fair slice of the pie, they would rather destroy the whole pie and make sure nobody gets anything, than to accept their unreasonably small share, even though logic dictates that you should always accept whatever small amount you're offered, because the alternative is getting nothing at all. Brexit is analogous to this, where a fair share of the population felt their slice of the pie was so offensively small that they'd rather destroy the system than to put up with it anymore.
  - raxxorrax 7y ago
    > even though logic dictates that you should always accept whatever small amount you're offered I think this conclusion is invalid since it could be reasoned that by destroying the pie, a new one could prosper. So the logic is reductive because the model is. I wouldn't want to apply this here though.
- oddeyed 7y ago
  I realise that it can be tempting to try and wave this around as proof that leavers are silly and us remainers are so much cleverer than them. However, if you haven't realised by now that people who want to leave the EU want it for reasons other than budget contributions then you are the silly one. Not every political decision is based only on economics.
  - kolp 7y ago
    The fact that leave voters were motivated by non-economic factors (xenophobia, nationalism, sovereignty, etc.) doesn't detract from the fact that their vote was irrational in terms of its effect on their wellbeing. Anecdotally, from watching shows like Question Time on the BBC, I strongly believe that leave voters are thick and we needn't tip toe around this issue. Here are two studies showing the correlation between votes and education level. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/0... https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-201...
    - uncle_j 7y ago
      > xenophobia This is a smear to demonise leave voters and dismiss any valid concerns they may have. The UK is generally not xenophobic. > Anecdotally, from watching shows like Question Time on the BBC, I strongly believe that leave voters are thick and we needn't tip toe around this issue. I've watched plenty of question time and tbh the people that appear the stupidest are usually the politicians. So it is completely subjective. > Here are two studies showing the correlation between votes and education level. This is outright fallacious. I know plenty of people that have a PhD that can barely function outside of academia. Having a higher education level really doesn't mean much once you leave academia and doesn't mean you are any more or less informed on a particular issue.
- starfallg 7y ago
  A lot of it is due to the press we have in the UK reinforcing misconceptions and mistrust of European institutions.
frereubu 7y ago
Remember that the UK's contributions weren't just going into a black hole, so this isn't a zero-sum game. The UK also received an enormous amount back for those contributions despite being a net contributor, such as EU project funding in deprived areas, access to the single market, a strong position in global trade deals as part of the EU negotiating team and so on. The sums are much, much worse if you take that into account.
- uncle_j 7y ago
  What people keep on forgetting is that Leaving the EU was never about money. Micheal Caine said it best "I'd rather be a poor master than a rich slave".
  - arethuza 7y ago
    £350 million a week for the NHS? https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/10/the-350m-line-on-the-brexit-bus-was-wrong-the-real-figure-is-higher/ https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/10/the-350m-line-on-the-b...
    - uncle_j 7y ago
      https://ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/peoples-stated-reasons-for-voting-leave-or-remain/ https://ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/peoples-stated-reasons... > This report includes several different surveys and opinion polls asking Britons why they voted the way they did in the EU referendum. It identifies that the two main reasons people voted Leave were ‘immigration’ and ‘sovereignty’, whereas the main reason people voted Remain was ‘the economy’. No mention of the Bus anywhere or the NHS. So no.
  - frereubu 7y ago
    I agree, and I've said that elsewhere in the comments. Thing is, this is going to come back and bite many of the people who think they're voting for more freedom. Poverty doesn't make you free.
    - 7y ago
waisbrot 7y ago
Calling this a "chart" is a bit of a stretch. Several sentences and a picture of two flags.
CHsurfer 7y ago
I came away with a very negative reaction to this infographic. I mean visually, not the data. Some how I come away feeling very underwhelmed. The embedded flags, which are at the same height, draw my eye and make it harder to gauge the relative heights of the bars. Also, there is too little white space between the subheading and the graphic. Same for the footnote. I'm far from a competent graphic designer, but I think Statista could have done better with this one.
samwillis 7y ago
There are already comments on this post about leave voting people having no brain or being stupid. This is exactly the kind of rhetoric that only makes the situation worse! Let’s not forget that over half the country voted for it, calling these voters stupid only makes the divisions in what has become a divided country worse. We have to except the decision has been made and move forward. Continuing to argue about who was right and wrong only holds us back, and I say that as a passionate remain voter. Let’s make the best of the new direction the country has taken!
- wastedhours 7y ago
  I hold the Remain campaign in as much contempt as the Leave one personally. You don't get anywhere by complacent insults, and what did we get - people rebelled against complacency and being insulted. In record numbers. "Making the best of it" though is a bitter-sweet pill. There are a lot of futures that have been made much more difficult/impossible. You can't "make the most" of something you're no longer allowed to do. Humans don't tend to like regression to a shittier state, that's one of the reasons climate change is such a tough nut to crack too.
- Piskvorrr 7y ago
  I take this as a proof that it is an immense Monty Python sketch. "Let's not bicker and argue about who killed whom: this is supposed to be a happy celebration!" ;)
wastedhours 7y ago
Brexit isn't about economics, macro-economics rarely has an influence at the individual level. It's the story that wraps around the numbers and emotion that's important. That's why Leave won. Not about net contributions, billions for science experiments most people don't understand. It won on the back of "money for more nurses to take care of your nan", "control of our borders to stop illegals taking your mate Dan's job". So for an anecdote: if the UK pulls out of the EU data-roaming regulations, I'd have spent more on mobile data in just one holiday last year than my yearly total EU contribution from my tax (and that's with a very fair operator travel plan).

34 points by laktak 7y ago

CtrlAltEngage 7y ago

It's almost like it was a terrible idea that no one with a brain would have voted for...

arethuza 7y ago
I'm a pretty passionate Remainer, but characterising people on the other side of the argument like that really doesn't help.
- tasubotadas 7y ago
  Doesn't help but it still is an accurate description.
  - frereubu 7y ago
    Not necessarily. Some of them just had different priorities - giving the political establishment a kicking - after a decade of unneccessary austerity. I strongly disagree with those priorities, and think they shot themslves in the foot in the most terrible way, but to characterise 52% of the people who voted as stupid is to miss the point.
    - makomk 7y ago
      It also wasn't entirely inappropriate as a way of giving the UK political establishment a good kicking, given that they'd been using the EU for decades as a way of pushing through laws they knew voters didn't want without that pesky business of having to publicly back them and get MPs to do the same. Remain supporters love to point to the fact that many unpopular EU laws were actually pushed for by the UK government as proof Leave supporters are stupid to blame the EU, but I don't think that argument flies.
  - roenxi 7y ago
    It is pretty obvious that a large number of people disagree with the characterisation. Rather than hurling abuse, why not go a little further and explain what your objections are? Then maybe they'll change their minds instead of writing off opinions such as yours and the thread parent. It is rare to persuade people by throwing in the towel on explaining. Add some reasons.
    - tasubotadas 7y ago
      >change their minds instead of writing off opinions such as yours and the thread parent. >It is rare to persuade people by throwing in the towel on explaining. TBH, I don't think you can reason with people like that. If that's your cup of tea, please do. Maybe you will make the world a better place. In the meantime, I'll be definitely making my world better, by avoiding brexiters, antivaxers, flat-earthers and other crazies. >Rather than hurling abuse Technically, I don't think that that matters, as I am not going and I am not insulting anybody specifically (if somebody takes an offence about such a general statement on the internet, it's kinda their problem). But if anybody would ask me to support their stance on pro-brexit, I would gladly call them (brexiters) an idiot. It really takes audacity to defend such a "move" where everybody loses.
  - _Understated_ 7y ago
    Your comment is the first one I've ever downvoted on here. It's not an accurate description. Far from it. I consider myself to be smart. I sought out as much data as I could before deciding to vote leave and I am sure I was not the only one. The EU pact was originally trade-related. It wasn't about governance. That's all I want. Edit: To the person or people that downvoted me, any chance of an explanation?
    - frereubu 7y ago
      I voted remain, but can understand your specific viewpoint despite not wanting what you do. But I'm curious - did you think that was what you were voting for when you voted to leave? Vote Leave's campaign was so nebulous that it felt really hard to understand what they were actually campaigning for. Also, political realities aside, would you (like Jacob Rees-Mogg did before the referendum) be interested in the results of a second referendum now that we know what the actual terms of the deal are? Edit: the downvote didn't come from me.
      - _Understated_ 7y ago
        First, I'm from Scotland and I also voted against independence, fwiw. I don't watch the news, too stage-managed and depressing but I still seek out information when I need to as I still know what's going on at a high level: I just don't see all the death and daily politicking (sp?). My issue with the EU (Now, I understand the nuances with the European Commission etc. but let's take it as "the EU" for the purposes of argument) is accountability. We have 650 MP's here in the UK deciding our fate for us. We don't need any more. The EU pact was originally about trade deals. I get governance from my locally elected MP's, I don't need anyone in Brussels deciding the fate of my country. It wasn't xenophobia as many MP's painted it, it was about accountability and governance. For me, at least. In terms of the deal we would get when we left? I didn't care and I still don't. We'll be fine. The 350 million bullshit was just that... bullshit! I knew it at the time. Both sides would have probably lied through their teeth or stretched the truth way beyond reality: we saw that with the first Scottish independence referendum where the SNP figures were based on an oil price that hit a one-day high (I believe... it was a while back!). If people trust their politicians to tell them the truth, or to put their interests at heart then that's the problem right there imo. And as for the second referendum, I'm not sure I would. People get cold feet. Also, people are easily swayed. I'm not afraid to say that I wouldn't want another one as I may not get the result I wanted. But that aside... we voted. We took a legal vote and the result is in. There would be the same shenanigans, lies and bullshit next time round anyway! Edit: I forgot about something. Sir Tom Hunter commissioned a study on the effects of leaving the EU. It was from scholars and such. So it was based (hopefully) on data more than rhetoric, votes and soundbites. It didn't pick a side, it just gave all the info it could to allow an informed decision. I'd made my mind up by then but it was informative but, to be honest, still quite speculative as there very little actual data to go on. I trusted something like that far more than anything from a politician. Edit2: Guys, the downvotes. C'mon! This isn't Reddit. By all means downvote but let's hear your argument. There are very few places you can go to get both sides of an argument where both parties don't resort to calling each other Nazi's. Even if you don't agree with me, tell me why please
  - uncle_j 7y ago
    No it isn't. The money argument isn't a valid argument for the vast majority of people that voted to Leave. The people that voted leave just didn't think the economic argument is as important as you think it is. That doesn't make them stupid it simply means they have different priorities then you do.
    - arethuza 7y ago
      "No it isn't. The money argument isn't a valid argument for the vast majority of people that voted to Leave." The 350 million a week message was a vital part of the Vote Leave strategy - and given that it was Dominic Cummings in charge there would have been hard data to support its appeal.
      - uncle_j 7y ago
        I don't think that would have swayed as many votes as you think it does. England has been euro-skeptic since Henry VIII. David Starky actually does some really good lectures about it. It is part of the Zeitgeist of this country.
dekrg 7y ago
If actually believe that chart then it just might be that you are the one without a brain.
- thomasedwards 7y ago
  Sorry if facts hurt you, but if you look at the source and reference, it’s pretty clear it’s a disaster.
  - dekrg 7y ago
    What facts would those be? There are no facts there about brexit costs only speculation by Bloomberg about potential lost economic growth.
valdiorn 7y ago
It's the Dictator Problem from game theory; in general, if humans feel like you're not getting an fair slice of the pie, they would rather destroy the whole pie and make sure nobody gets anything, than to accept their unreasonably small share, even though logic dictates that you should always accept whatever small amount you're offered, because the alternative is getting nothing at all. Brexit is analogous to this, where a fair share of the population felt their slice of the pie was so offensively small that they'd rather destroy the system than to put up with it anymore.
- raxxorrax 7y ago
  > even though logic dictates that you should always accept whatever small amount you're offered I think this conclusion is invalid since it could be reasoned that by destroying the pie, a new one could prosper. So the logic is reductive because the model is. I wouldn't want to apply this here though.
oddeyed 7y ago
I realise that it can be tempting to try and wave this around as proof that leavers are silly and us remainers are so much cleverer than them. However, if you haven't realised by now that people who want to leave the EU want it for reasons other than budget contributions then you are the silly one. Not every political decision is based only on economics.
- kolp 7y ago
  The fact that leave voters were motivated by non-economic factors (xenophobia, nationalism, sovereignty, etc.) doesn't detract from the fact that their vote was irrational in terms of its effect on their wellbeing. Anecdotally, from watching shows like Question Time on the BBC, I strongly believe that leave voters are thick and we needn't tip toe around this issue. Here are two studies showing the correlation between votes and education level. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/0... https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-201...
  - uncle_j 7y ago
    > xenophobia This is a smear to demonise leave voters and dismiss any valid concerns they may have. The UK is generally not xenophobic. > Anecdotally, from watching shows like Question Time on the BBC, I strongly believe that leave voters are thick and we needn't tip toe around this issue. I've watched plenty of question time and tbh the people that appear the stupidest are usually the politicians. So it is completely subjective. > Here are two studies showing the correlation between votes and education level. This is outright fallacious. I know plenty of people that have a PhD that can barely function outside of academia. Having a higher education level really doesn't mean much once you leave academia and doesn't mean you are any more or less informed on a particular issue.
starfallg 7y ago
A lot of it is due to the press we have in the UK reinforcing misconceptions and mistrust of European institutions.

frereubu 7y ago

Remember that the UK's contributions weren't just going into a black hole, so this isn't a zero-sum game. The UK also received an enormous amount back for those contributions despite being a net contributor, such as EU project funding in deprived areas, access to the single market, a strong position in global trade deals as part of the EU negotiating team and so on. The sums are much, much worse if you take that into account.

uncle_j 7y ago
What people keep on forgetting is that Leaving the EU was never about money. Micheal Caine said it best "I'd rather be a poor master than a rich slave".
- arethuza 7y ago
  £350 million a week for the NHS? https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/10/the-350m-line-on-the-brexit-bus-was-wrong-the-real-figure-is-higher/ https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/10/the-350m-line-on-the-b...
  - uncle_j 7y ago
    https://ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/peoples-stated-reasons-for-voting-leave-or-remain/ https://ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/peoples-stated-reasons... > This report includes several different surveys and opinion polls asking Britons why they voted the way they did in the EU referendum. It identifies that the two main reasons people voted Leave were ‘immigration’ and ‘sovereignty’, whereas the main reason people voted Remain was ‘the economy’. No mention of the Bus anywhere or the NHS. So no.
- frereubu 7y ago
  I agree, and I've said that elsewhere in the comments. Thing is, this is going to come back and bite many of the people who think they're voting for more freedom. Poverty doesn't make you free.
  - 7y ago

waisbrot 7y ago

Calling this a "chart" is a bit of a stretch. Several sentences and a picture of two flags.

CHsurfer 7y ago

I came away with a very negative reaction to this infographic. I mean visually, not the data. Some how I come away feeling very underwhelmed. The embedded flags, which are at the same height, draw my eye and make it harder to gauge the relative heights of the bars. Also, there is too little white space between the subheading and the graphic. Same for the footnote. I'm far from a competent graphic designer, but I think Statista could have done better with this one.

samwillis 7y ago

There are already comments on this post about leave voting people having no brain or being stupid. This is exactly the kind of rhetoric that only makes the situation worse! Let’s not forget that over half the country voted for it, calling these voters stupid only makes the divisions in what has become a divided country worse. We have to except the decision has been made and move forward. Continuing to argue about who was right and wrong only holds us back, and I say that as a passionate remain voter. Let’s make the best of the new direction the country has taken!

wastedhours 7y ago
I hold the Remain campaign in as much contempt as the Leave one personally. You don't get anywhere by complacent insults, and what did we get - people rebelled against complacency and being insulted. In record numbers. "Making the best of it" though is a bitter-sweet pill. There are a lot of futures that have been made much more difficult/impossible. You can't "make the most" of something you're no longer allowed to do. Humans don't tend to like regression to a shittier state, that's one of the reasons climate change is such a tough nut to crack too.
Piskvorrr 7y ago
I take this as a proof that it is an immense Monty Python sketch. "Let's not bicker and argue about who killed whom: this is supposed to be a happy celebration!" ;)

wastedhours 7y ago

Brexit isn't about economics, macro-economics rarely has an influence at the individual level. It's the story that wraps around the numbers and emotion that's important. That's why Leave won. Not about net contributions, billions for science experiments most people don't understand. It won on the back of "money for more nurses to take care of your nan", "control of our borders to stop illegals taking your mate Dan's job". So for an anecdote: if the UK pulls out of the EU data-roaming regulations, I'd have spent more on mobile data in just one holiday last year than my yearly total EU contribution from my tax (and that's with a very fair operator travel plan).