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I think it's pretty clear that mass transit and (e-)bikes--not cars--should become the primary modes of transportation, at least in urban areas, if for no other

I think it's pretty clear that mass transit and (e-)bikes--not cars--should become the primary modes of transportation, at least in urban areas, if for no other reason than that they're inherently more sustainable. I would be concerned that self-driving cars will only arrive after Peak Automobile has already come and gone.

amelius 7y ago
How about mass transit using a fleet of self driving cars? I can see that this isn't a future a VW exec would dream of, since it would mean far fewer cars per person.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- jasonhansel 7y ago
  Buses are always going to be more efficient than cars for that purpose (less weight per person). An adequately funded, high-quality bus system would, in my view, make self-driving cars redundant for almost all purposes.
  - hn_throwaway_99 7y ago
    Sorry, but I think this point of view really does not take into account the reality of the situation in many US cities (or, more importantly, many US suburbs). I would love it if I could take a highly quality bus instead of be stuck in traffic driving, but it's simply not feasible given where I live. Driving downtown to work takes about 20 mins with no traffic, about 35 mins during rush hour, and even if there was a bus that I could take (there isn't) given the additional stops it would still take longer than that, even though it can take the 'express' lane. Where I live self-driving cars, even if "highway only", IMO are much more feasible than an adequate public transportation system that would cost billions to construct.
- lispm 7y ago
  The business model changes then from car sales to a mix of car sales and being a mobility provider. VW would need to be able to move into those directions.
unlinked_dll 7y ago
I can't see bikes taking over in urban area with actual climate. Even the biggest enthusiasts in Chicago or New York will tell you it sucks during the winter. And I can't see mass transit being viable when our biggest cities with the money and initiative to improve it plan these projects over the scale of decades and billions per mile. Self driving cars or trolleys on the existing road surface is probably the most realistic form of mass transit out there. We have the vehicles and the infrastructure already. It doesn't have to be self driving at first either. Uber's forays into mass transit with shared rides and fixed pickup locations was always pretty solid for me and reasonably priced.
rmtech 7y ago
Self-driving cars, vans and buses are better than mass transit that operates on fixed lines and schedules in nearly every respect, including energy use. Mass transit on fixed routes is a fossil and it will increasingly be phased out in favor of self-driving transport networks where the route, the timing and the size of the vehicle adapts to needs.

amelius 7y ago

How about mass transit using a fleet of self driving cars? I can see that this isn't a future a VW exec would dream of, since it would mean far fewer cars per person.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
jasonhansel 7y ago
Buses are always going to be more efficient than cars for that purpose (less weight per person). An adequately funded, high-quality bus system would, in my view, make self-driving cars redundant for almost all purposes.
- hn_throwaway_99 7y ago
  Sorry, but I think this point of view really does not take into account the reality of the situation in many US cities (or, more importantly, many US suburbs). I would love it if I could take a highly quality bus instead of be stuck in traffic driving, but it's simply not feasible given where I live. Driving downtown to work takes about 20 mins with no traffic, about 35 mins during rush hour, and even if there was a bus that I could take (there isn't) given the additional stops it would still take longer than that, even though it can take the 'express' lane. Where I live self-driving cars, even if "highway only", IMO are much more feasible than an adequate public transportation system that would cost billions to construct.
lispm 7y ago
The business model changes then from car sales to a mix of car sales and being a mobility provider. VW would need to be able to move into those directions.

unlinked_dll 7y ago

I can't see bikes taking over in urban area with actual climate. Even the biggest enthusiasts in Chicago or New York will tell you it sucks during the winter. And I can't see mass transit being viable when our biggest cities with the money and initiative to improve it plan these projects over the scale of decades and billions per mile. Self driving cars or trolleys on the existing road surface is probably the most realistic form of mass transit out there. We have the vehicles and the infrastructure already. It doesn't have to be self driving at first either. Uber's forays into mass transit with shared rides and fixed pickup locations was always pretty solid for me and reasonably priced.

rmtech 7y ago

Self-driving cars, vans and buses are better than mass transit that operates on fixed lines and schedules in nearly every respect, including energy use. Mass transit on fixed routes is a fossil and it will increasingly be phased out in favor of self-driving transport networks where the route, the timing and the size of the vehicle adapts to needs.