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To put this in perspective, imagine this hypothetical conversation happening a century ago: "I have this new auto-mobile concept which doesn't require a horse

To put this in perspective, imagine this hypothetical conversation happening a century ago: "I have this new auto-mobile concept which doesn't require a horse and which can go fast; I envision up to fifty miles per hour. It will require a smooth, hardened road surface, but that will be achievable someday." "Forget about it. We already have millions of miles of roads, which are bumpy, made of dirt, and hard to build and maintain. Who will do the extra work to smooth them? Harden them? Maintain them? What if some jerk digs a hole in one as a prank? Maybe this could happen in a limited way in cities, but this is overall a pipe dream." My point is, it isn't a question of whether this is feasible, it's a question of incentives. If the incentives lead society in this direction, it will happen.

umvi 7y ago
Cobblestone/bumpy/muddy/dirt streets still exist today. I could see autonomous vehicles working in a city, but not out in the country where a driveway might be an unmarked dirt path.
- _greim_ 7y ago
  Yes but these things are already problems for human-operated cars. You just need to drive slow and be careful on some roads. You need training, instructions, markers, specialized vehicles, or prior experience on some patches of terrain. These solutions have analogs in the automated driving realm.
- fastball 7y ago
  What features of an unmarked dirt path make it "driveable" that you can pick out but a camera cannot?
megablast 7y ago
Yes, imagine that world. We wouldn’t have a million direct deaths every year, a million more caused by pollution. We wouldn’t waste trillions a year on roads, hospitals, signs, sprawl, and so much more. Just so someone can get a donut at 3am.
joe_the_user 7y ago
You can compare these levels of progress, sure but that doesn't mean the comparison is valid. Lots of people dismissed flying cars in the 60s and heck, they were right, the problem is fundamentally different. The difference because the horse-to-auto transition and the auto-to-self-driving-auto is that autonomous cars solutions are inherently fragile and cars reasonably robust. (Flying cars are inherently fragile too - the problem isn't get a car-like-thing to fly, it's getting it to not hit things).
skywhopper 7y ago
What are the incentives, though? There’s not actually that much money to be made here, despite dreams of self driving taxis (something that could never be possible). Maybe in the trucking industry, but the tech doesn’t exist and is nowhere close to being reliable enough consistently enough.
- colordrops 7y ago
  Many many many incentivrs... Cars that can drive at double the speed and much closer together, meaning a much higher throughput. Productivity while commuting. Ability to serve content and ads to people while commuting. Virtual public transport through large automated vehicles. Much cheaper, full time delivery of goods. Lower death rates. Ability to live in the suburbs and commute 4 hours a day without wanting to shoot yourself into the head. Ability to punch in a destination across the country, then sleep in your car while it drives all night. the list goes on and on
- wisty 7y ago
  People could more safely play on their phones while 'driving'.
tim333 7y ago
Of course cars did happen and worked with the crappy roads of the time. Self driving cars will probably have to do the same - work with existing crappy roads including dirt tracks and the like.
needs 7y ago
I think the key point is the amount of energy and resources necessary to make self driving cars a reality. With the ongoing climate change and projected energy crisis, humanity may not have the physical resources to build and maintain self driving cars. If somehow the energy problem is solved and climate change does not bring chaos, I can see true self driving car before 2100.
hartator 7y ago
Well. Old cars - and new ones - can run on the old roads. It’s just as comfortable as a caleche. Changes were way more incremental.

umvi 7y ago

Cobblestone/bumpy/muddy/dirt streets still exist today. I could see autonomous vehicles working in a city, but not out in the country where a driveway might be an unmarked dirt path.

_greim_ 7y ago
Yes but these things are already problems for human-operated cars. You just need to drive slow and be careful on some roads. You need training, instructions, markers, specialized vehicles, or prior experience on some patches of terrain. These solutions have analogs in the automated driving realm.
fastball 7y ago
What features of an unmarked dirt path make it "driveable" that you can pick out but a camera cannot?

megablast 7y ago

Yes, imagine that world. We wouldn’t have a million direct deaths every year, a million more caused by pollution. We wouldn’t waste trillions a year on roads, hospitals, signs, sprawl, and so much more. Just so someone can get a donut at 3am.

joe_the_user 7y ago

You can compare these levels of progress, sure but that doesn't mean the comparison is valid. Lots of people dismissed flying cars in the 60s and heck, they were right, the problem is fundamentally different. The difference because the horse-to-auto transition and the auto-to-self-driving-auto is that autonomous cars solutions are inherently fragile and cars reasonably robust. (Flying cars are inherently fragile too - the problem isn't get a car-like-thing to fly, it's getting it to not hit things).

skywhopper 7y ago

What are the incentives, though? There’s not actually that much money to be made here, despite dreams of self driving taxis (something that could never be possible). Maybe in the trucking industry, but the tech doesn’t exist and is nowhere close to being reliable enough consistently enough.

colordrops 7y ago
Many many many incentivrs... Cars that can drive at double the speed and much closer together, meaning a much higher throughput. Productivity while commuting. Ability to serve content and ads to people while commuting. Virtual public transport through large automated vehicles. Much cheaper, full time delivery of goods. Lower death rates. Ability to live in the suburbs and commute 4 hours a day without wanting to shoot yourself into the head. Ability to punch in a destination across the country, then sleep in your car while it drives all night. the list goes on and on
wisty 7y ago
People could more safely play on their phones while 'driving'.

tim333 7y ago

Of course cars did happen and worked with the crappy roads of the time. Self driving cars will probably have to do the same - work with existing crappy roads including dirt tracks and the like.

needs 7y ago

I think the key point is the amount of energy and resources necessary to make self driving cars a reality. With the ongoing climate change and projected energy crisis, humanity may not have the physical resources to build and maintain self driving cars. If somehow the energy problem is solved and climate change does not bring chaos, I can see true self driving car before 2100.

hartator 7y ago

Well. Old cars - and new ones - can run on the old roads. It’s just as comfortable as a caleche. Changes were way more incremental.