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> the US can't stop China from taking Taiwan; if they move on Taiwan, they're getting anything left standing, including fabs I’ve seen this repeated in this th

> the US can't stop China from taking Taiwan; if they move on Taiwan, they're getting anything left standing, including fabs I’ve seen this repeated in this thread, is there any evidence of this apart from conjecture?

adventured 7y ago
Sure, I think it's quite technically obvious when you look at any aspect of the matter. Taiwan is five feet from mainland China and they have a massive military that is increasingly quite advanced technologically (clearly the overall #2 military in the world in both capability and technology at this point; Russia is superior to China in a few categories, but not overall; China is rapidly rising, Russia's military is rusting) and they have an increasingly potent navy. They can stand off US carriers effectively and are building multiple carriers of their own. They can rapidly, massively resupply locally, whereas the US would have the British Empire problem of trying to supply a conflict very far away (and facing non-stop Chinese harassment & losses in attempting to resupply into Asia). US bombing capability is far too limited in volume now versus a target as massive as modern China's manufacturing and military (we can't take it down effectively or fast enough; and we couldn't easily consistently penetrate their territory air defenses anyway; Russia would very happily feed them volumes of S missile systems, which would severely restrict US bombing efforts). US military resupply is wildly expensive, Chinese military resupply is not (specifically on such a local/regional basis). My god the resupply capabilities of a full war footing modern China in the local region - just get the fuck out of the way of that. Picture WW2 scale US manufacturing arms output capability and then double it. What is the US going to do, lose a couple hundred thousand soldiers and a large number of naval ships trying to save Taiwan, which is an impossible task long-term. No chance the American public goes for that unless the mainland US is at risk or unless China makes the mistake of killing a large number of US soldiers in eg South Korea or Japan. Taiwan is an ally, it isn't necessary for US national well-being. If China gets Taiwan, and the US keeps its manufacturing-import relationship with China/Taiwan for its domestic economy benefit, the US public will have little appetite for an actual war with China. Where's the US public self-interest otherwise? Do you kill everyone in China, alternatively (not plausible, as that's all out nuclear warfare between the two nations)? Because that's the only way to permanently stop them from taking Taiwan if they want it. They have an authoritarian system, truly epic scale manufacturing capabilities of all sorts, a rapidly advancing military, and 1.4 billion people to throw at problems (with only minimum regard for killing large numbers of them if it's regarded as absolutely necessary for national goals; China will tolerate losses far better than the US, authoritarian systems have demonstrated that repeatedly in the prior century).
- Scarbutt 7y ago
  This has been proved with Syria and Russia. The U.S. didn't try to stop or go to war with Russia for losing Syria to them, they accepted the loss of Russia "keeping" Syria and moved on. U.S. best weapon today is economic sanctions, but is not too effective against China.
  - ottolin 7y ago
    Actually I think it's the reverse; it is quite effective against China. China needs huge amount of USD for supporting its internal needs for food, resources, etc. That's why Hong Kong is so important to China as she is the only city in China which can raise USD funds via the stock market. A 'still ok' economy is the only thing to keep the legitimacy for the current authoritarian regime. If the economy turns bad, people will start challenging the regime internally.
    - jbay808 7y ago
      China grows way more than enough food to feed its people and its neighbours too.
      - konstmonst 7y ago
        That's not true anymore. Everyone moves to the cities. Then you have this pig plague. China imports more food now.
- myrandomcomment 7y ago
  This is more obvious scenario. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-wi... Any invasion plans would require a ton of perpetration that would be seen months before. The US Military is a logistic machine. No President would sit by and watch the preparations and do nothing. The death of a US carrier group in defense would ensure that the US would not backdown. Think of the US after Pearl Harbor. It would end with nukes and the US would “win” for some definition of the word win at that point. The Russians would op out hoping to come out the untouched as the US and a China destroy themselves. Because of this a well reasoned response risk wise would be for the US just to go nuclear day one and decapitate China before they saw it coming. That’s far more likely.

adventured 7y ago

Sure, I think it's quite technically obvious when you look at any aspect of the matter. Taiwan is five feet from mainland China and they have a massive military that is increasingly quite advanced technologically (clearly the overall #2 military in the world in both capability and technology at this point; Russia is superior to China in a few categories, but not overall; China is rapidly rising, Russia's military is rusting) and they have an increasingly potent navy. They can stand off US carriers effectively and are building multiple carriers of their own. They can rapidly, massively resupply locally, whereas the US would have the British Empire problem of trying to supply a conflict very far away (and facing non-stop Chinese harassment & losses in attempting to resupply into Asia). US bombing capability is far too limited in volume now versus a target as massive as modern China's manufacturing and military (we can't take it down effectively or fast enough; and we couldn't easily consistently penetrate their territory air defenses anyway; Russia would very happily feed them volumes of S missile systems, which would severely restrict US bombing efforts). US military resupply is wildly expensive, Chinese military resupply is not (specifically on such a local/regional basis). My god the resupply capabilities of a full war footing modern China in the local region - just get the fuck out of the way of that. Picture WW2 scale US manufacturing arms output capability and then double it. What is the US going to do, lose a couple hundred thousand soldiers and a large number of naval ships trying to save Taiwan, which is an impossible task long-term. No chance the American public goes for that unless the mainland US is at risk or unless China makes the mistake of killing a large number of US soldiers in eg South Korea or Japan. Taiwan is an ally, it isn't necessary for US national well-being. If China gets Taiwan, and the US keeps its manufacturing-import relationship with China/Taiwan for its domestic economy benefit, the US public will have little appetite for an actual war with China. Where's the US public self-interest otherwise? Do you kill everyone in China, alternatively (not plausible, as that's all out nuclear warfare between the two nations)? Because that's the only way to permanently stop them from taking Taiwan if they want it. They have an authoritarian system, truly epic scale manufacturing capabilities of all sorts, a rapidly advancing military, and 1.4 billion people to throw at problems (with only minimum regard for killing large numbers of them if it's regarded as absolutely necessary for national goals; China will tolerate losses far better than the US, authoritarian systems have demonstrated that repeatedly in the prior century).

Scarbutt 7y ago
This has been proved with Syria and Russia. The U.S. didn't try to stop or go to war with Russia for losing Syria to them, they accepted the loss of Russia "keeping" Syria and moved on. U.S. best weapon today is economic sanctions, but is not too effective against China.
- ottolin 7y ago
  Actually I think it's the reverse; it is quite effective against China. China needs huge amount of USD for supporting its internal needs for food, resources, etc. That's why Hong Kong is so important to China as she is the only city in China which can raise USD funds via the stock market. A 'still ok' economy is the only thing to keep the legitimacy for the current authoritarian regime. If the economy turns bad, people will start challenging the regime internally.
  - jbay808 7y ago
    China grows way more than enough food to feed its people and its neighbours too.
    - konstmonst 7y ago
      That's not true anymore. Everyone moves to the cities. Then you have this pig plague. China imports more food now.
myrandomcomment 7y ago
This is more obvious scenario. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-wi... Any invasion plans would require a ton of perpetration that would be seen months before. The US Military is a logistic machine. No President would sit by and watch the preparations and do nothing. The death of a US carrier group in defense would ensure that the US would not backdown. Think of the US after Pearl Harbor. It would end with nukes and the US would “win” for some definition of the word win at that point. The Russians would op out hoping to come out the untouched as the US and a China destroy themselves. Because of this a well reasoned response risk wise would be for the US just to go nuclear day one and decapitate China before they saw it coming. That’s far more likely.