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Wheels are really awesome at fighting gravity when the engine dies so I’m not sure I ever see a time people are flying around in personal aircraft en masse. I’

Wheels are really awesome at fighting gravity when the engine dies so I’m not sure I ever see a time people are flying around in personal aircraft en masse. I’ve seen enough try to drive on the ground.

awb 7y ago
Planes and drones are getting pretty good at autonomous flight. You might not need pilots by the time this tech is mature.
- dmitrygr 7y ago
  They said the same about doctors, and yet heart surgery is done by real people. All your NNs are entirely completely utterly pointless when faced with inputs they have never been trained on. They always suck at extrapolating, and almost always suck at interpolating as well. So when an unexpected emergency happens, what exactly are they going to do? And outside of NNs, The only thing we have are autopilots. They sometimes fail, and that is why real pilots mainly just babysit them as their main job.
  - godelski 7y ago
    Just an FYI, planes already regularly fly by themselves. Auto landing has even been around since the late 60's.
    - nradov 7y ago
      Yes but there are still trained human pilots monitoring the auto landing systems, ready to abort if anything goes wrong. It general autonomous systems are incapable of coping with unexpected failure modes.
      - godelski 7y ago
        Sorry, to be clear, planes are not level 5. But to also be clear, there are different levels of autonomy. I'm not trying to suggest they are level 5 though.
    - VBprogrammer 7y ago
      The idea that airplanes fly themselves is spectacularly overstated in the public consciousness. The reality is closer to multidimensional cruise control than the pilots are just there for decoration.
elamje 7y ago
Additionally, people forget the extra energy cost of fighting gravity. It takes a lot more energy to use a motor and prop to directly resist gravity, rather than using a static object like a wheel. Energy loss fighting gravity with a propeller >> energy loss fighting wheel friction.
- garkin 7y ago
  Energy is not the only thing you should care about freight and human logistics. Logistical resources of cities are scarce and it already badly affects labor market there.
godelski 7y ago
Just an FYI, helicopters can land without engine power by autorotation. I'm assuming these things, if you're putting people in them, would do the same. Additionally, autonomous flight is fairly common right now. There's less going on in the air than on the ground (or rather less surprises with small response time and high consequences). Planes even land and take off by themselves. The first plane to actually be certified to autoland was in 1968[0]. The tech has been around for awhile and been making serious development this entire time. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoland
- nradov 7y ago
  Those powered lift aircraft don't have enough rotor inertia to perform autorotation. They will have to rely on redundant power systems plus ballistic recovery parachutes. Autonomous flight is still quite rare. And even when it is used, there are still human pilots standing by to take over in case anything goes wrong.
  - godelski 7y ago
    > Autonomous flight is quite common. When it is used, there are still human pilots standing by to take over in case anything goes wrong. FTFY. I'm just saying that comparing autonomous flight to autonomous driving isn't fair. Flying is a lot easier for a machine. You already have tons of data streaming in from airports, other planes, and lots of equipment on the vehicle itself.
    - nradov 7y ago
      That's completely wrong. Sure machines can control take off, navigation, and landing as long as everything works. However they are unable to cope with unexpected system failures. A lot of things can go wrong on even the simplest aircraft and it's impossible to anticipate and code for all of them.
      - godelski 7y ago
        There's different levels of autonomy, just to be clear. I'm not saying they are level 5.

awb 7y ago

Planes and drones are getting pretty good at autonomous flight. You might not need pilots by the time this tech is mature.

dmitrygr 7y ago
They said the same about doctors, and yet heart surgery is done by real people. All your NNs are entirely completely utterly pointless when faced with inputs they have never been trained on. They always suck at extrapolating, and almost always suck at interpolating as well. So when an unexpected emergency happens, what exactly are they going to do? And outside of NNs, The only thing we have are autopilots. They sometimes fail, and that is why real pilots mainly just babysit them as their main job.
- godelski 7y ago
  Just an FYI, planes already regularly fly by themselves. Auto landing has even been around since the late 60's.
  - nradov 7y ago
    Yes but there are still trained human pilots monitoring the auto landing systems, ready to abort if anything goes wrong. It general autonomous systems are incapable of coping with unexpected failure modes.
    - godelski 7y ago
      Sorry, to be clear, planes are not level 5. But to also be clear, there are different levels of autonomy. I'm not trying to suggest they are level 5 though.
  - VBprogrammer 7y ago
    The idea that airplanes fly themselves is spectacularly overstated in the public consciousness. The reality is closer to multidimensional cruise control than the pilots are just there for decoration.

elamje 7y ago

Additionally, people forget the extra energy cost of fighting gravity. It takes a lot more energy to use a motor and prop to directly resist gravity, rather than using a static object like a wheel. Energy loss fighting gravity with a propeller >> energy loss fighting wheel friction.

garkin 7y ago
Energy is not the only thing you should care about freight and human logistics. Logistical resources of cities are scarce and it already badly affects labor market there.

godelski 7y ago

Just an FYI, helicopters can land without engine power by autorotation. I'm assuming these things, if you're putting people in them, would do the same. Additionally, autonomous flight is fairly common right now. There's less going on in the air than on the ground (or rather less surprises with small response time and high consequences). Planes even land and take off by themselves. The first plane to actually be certified to autoland was in 1968[0]. The tech has been around for awhile and been making serious development this entire time. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoland

nradov 7y ago
Those powered lift aircraft don't have enough rotor inertia to perform autorotation. They will have to rely on redundant power systems plus ballistic recovery parachutes. Autonomous flight is still quite rare. And even when it is used, there are still human pilots standing by to take over in case anything goes wrong.
- godelski 7y ago
  > Autonomous flight is quite common. When it is used, there are still human pilots standing by to take over in case anything goes wrong. FTFY. I'm just saying that comparing autonomous flight to autonomous driving isn't fair. Flying is a lot easier for a machine. You already have tons of data streaming in from airports, other planes, and lots of equipment on the vehicle itself.
  - nradov 7y ago
    That's completely wrong. Sure machines can control take off, navigation, and landing as long as everything works. However they are unable to cope with unexpected system failures. A lot of things can go wrong on even the simplest aircraft and it's impossible to anticipate and code for all of them.
    - godelski 7y ago
      There's different levels of autonomy, just to be clear. I'm not saying they are level 5.