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Australia fires: Misleading maps and pictures go viral

165 points by pionerkotik 7y ago

e40 7y ago
I'm a big fan of https://www.memeorandum.com/ https://www.memeorandum.com/ but I saw a story on there that "almost 200 people had been arrested for setting fires" ... only to find Alex Jones was one of the sources. Crikey.
- vondur 7y ago
  Well, it does seem to be semi factual, 183 people had been arrested, "only 24 of them for arson: 24 people have been charged over alleged deliberately-lit bushfires 53 people have had legal actions for allegedly failing to comply with a total fire ban, and 47 people have had legal actions for allegedly discarding a lighted cigarette or match on land. Source: https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_src=%2BdXJsPWh0dHBzJTNBJTJGJTJGZWJpenByZC5wb2xpY2UubnN3Lmdvdi5hdSUyRm1lZGlhJTJGODIyNjQuaHRtbCZhbGw9MQ%3D%3D https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_s...
  - johnbrodie 7y ago
    No one issuing these clarifications seems to also impart that those are only NSW numbers. Do we know what the totals are across the entire country?
    - lazyasciiart 7y ago
      They should also be including previous years data - I’ve seen a lot of people who appear to think arson was invented this summer. And a mind blowing few who think it was invented by people desperate to keep the climate change hoax going :/
      - mcantelon 7y ago
        24 people being charged with arson, deliberately setting forest fires, during this season seems like a lot.
        lazyasciiart 7y ago
        I'm sure it does, to people who don't realize what the usual numbers are. That's why it should only be presented with the context of data from previous years. And that data says >The Australian Productivity Commission has calculated that between 2001–02 and 2006–07, [there was] an average of nearly 54,000 fires per year (SGRSP 2008). ... It is estimated that 50 percent of fires are either deliberately lit or suspicious in origin as shown in Figure 1. https://aic.gov.au/publications/bfab/bfab059 https://aic.gov.au/publications/bfab/bfab059 edit: and to compare arson charges specifically, the same article says that between 2001 and 2006 there were 133 convicted bushfire arsonists in New South Wales - or about 20 per year convicted in a single state. Since there probably isn't a 100% conviction rate, I'd expect the total number charged each year for the whole country is along the order of 50 people.
        mcantelon 7y ago
        That's pretty crazy... if there's 133 convicted in that time span then the actual number of folks doing this might be considerably larger. This seems like a subject worth someone doing a documentary about given this is likely, if it's happening in Australia, happening in many other places.
        lazyasciiart 7y ago
        Of course it's larger, its tens of thousands of fires deliberately lit each year. There are books, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a documentary somewhere.
      - rrrhys 7y ago
        It's just a deflection point from certain media. Commented elsewhere: Arson has been stable for 24 months to September 2019, it's a shame the data capture stops there. It's made up to deflect. https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/RCS-Quarterly/NSW_Recorded_Crime_Sept_2019.pdf https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/RCS-Quarterly/NSW_Re... crime / 2018 / 2019 / Trend Arson / 5,692 / 4,934 / Stable
  - WilTimSon 7y ago
    I think their complaint isn't about the story not being factual but about the fact that Alex Jones is an insane person/outrage feeder who shouldn't be quoted as a source. Instead, they could have quoted, well, the source you give. It's much more credible, after all.
    - reaperducer 7y ago
      The problem is that even a broken clock is correct twice a day. And for the sort of people who follow conspiracy theory whackjobs, that's all they need.
      - manicdee 7y ago
        A STOPPED clock is correct twice a day, as long as you already know what the time is you can tell that the clock is right at this time. A broken clock will always be wrong. Even if you already know what the time it, the fact that the broken clock looks like it is working will lead you to wanting to believe that it might be right just this once.
        HeWhoLurksLate 7y ago
        Stopped clocks are generally considered to be a subset of broken clocks.
        manicdee 7y ago
        My apologies for not being extremely pedantic about my definitions in an allegory.
    - mcantelon 7y ago
      Insane people/outrage feeders will only be tolerated if they serve an establishment agenda.
      - __jal 7y ago
        No, but even if the crazy person is correct in this instance, I'm still not relying on them for political/personal safety/vitamin/any other information of any consequence.
  - madeofpalk 7y ago
    Also, IIRC the number refers to people who were arrested as late as three months before the current fires.
    - SlowRobotAhead 7y ago
      That’s 24 caught. How many were not caught? https://m.dw.com/en/australia-police-arrest-man-accused-of-starting-bushfires/a-51234527 https://m.dw.com/en/australia-police-arrest-man-accused-of-s... I’m not sure what would possess someone to do this. As if the earth needs any more “help” from idiots, right!?
  - cmroanirgo 7y ago
    As an aside, I didn't realise we had explicit laws for smoking: > Light or use a tobacco product within 15metres of any stack of grain, hay corn, straw or any standing crop, dry grass or stubble field – up to a $5500 fine. Mum grew up on a wheat station (meaning: huge farm/ranch) and always said that the wheat fires moved pretty quickly, so I suppose that's where this law comes from.
  - e40 7y ago
    The item I put in quotes is very specific and not at all like what you quoted.
- Maxious 7y ago
  This figure is wrong, although Donald Trump Jr didn't round up the 183 to 200. https://twitter.com/jason_a_w/status/1214581876838428672 https://twitter.com/jason_a_w/status/1214581876838428672 The original police statement was "The NSW Police Force has taken legal action against more than 180 people for bushfire-related offences since late last year." of which only "24 people have been charged over alleged deliberately-lit bushfires". https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_src=%2BdXJsPWh0dHBzJTNBJTJGJTJGZWJpenByZC5wb2xpY2UubnN3Lmdvdi5hdSUyRm1lZGlhJTJGODIyNjQuaHRtbCZhbGw9MQ%3D%3D https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_s... Most of the offenses are for having a barbeque/campfire during a "total fire ban" day or discarding a lit cigarette - these receive formal cautions or fines > Discarding a cigarette from a vehicle can attract a fine for littering of $250, the NSW Environmental Protection Authority states. If it’s lit and tossed away, the fine is $660, which doubles on a day of total fire ban to $1320. > Lighting a fire on a day of total fire ban attracts an on the spot fine of $2200. If the matter goes to court, you could face a fine of up to $5500 or 12 months behind bars.
- elfexec 7y ago
  > only to find Alex Jones was one of the sources. Crikey. Was he right or wrong? I love the "appeal to authority" and "ad hominem" arguments made by people. Would you rather a lie from an "authoritative" source or a truth from a "wacko"?
  - ticmasta 7y ago
    >> Would you rather a lie from an "authoritative" source or a truth from a "wacko" Well, an authoritative source can still be wrong but by definition does not lie, while a wacko can get it right occasionally without being truthful. It kind of feels like you're confusing single-roll probability with cumulative odds; who are you going to bet on over the long term?
    - elfexec 7y ago
      > Well, an authoritative source can still be wrong but by definition does not lie That's the type of thing I imagine someone in north korea saying. By definition does not lie? That's news to me and certainly not true of any "authoritative sources". Every authoritative sources has lied. Even more, every autoritative sources was created specifically to lie. If you think I'm wrong, go read about the creation of these "authoritative sources". Who created them and why? Even the hallowed BBC by definition told lies. Orwell worked for the BBC Eastern Service as a propagandist. It was one of his inspirations for 1984. You might have heard of him. > who are you going to bet on over the long term? Neither - especially when it comes to important issues. As I said the slavish "appeal to authority". It's the basis of all tyranny.
  - mcantelon 7y ago
    The mainstream media can push conspiracy theories, such as Russiagate, until the cows come home but people are generally fine with that. During Russiagate numerous establishment outlets pushed blatantly false stories, such as Buzzfeed's story, refuted pretty much immediately by Mueller, about Trump supposedly directing Michael Cohen to lie to Congress and the Guardian's story about Manafort allegedly meeting with Assange at the Ecuadorian embassy (a meeting that likely never actually happened given there were no records of it at the embassy). Neither of these two example stories were retracted IIRC.
ggm 7y ago
The Guardian has a visualisation of the total area burned in this fire season, which can be overlayed on google maps to any location. It is not the size of 'currently burning' but is the size of 'burning, or burnt' https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2019/dec/07/how-big-are-the-fires-burning-on-the-east-coast-of-australia-interactive-map https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-inter...
savethefuture 7y ago
Didn't the same thing happen with the Amazon fires recently?
- reaperducer 7y ago
  Yes. Celebrities were spreading photos of fires on other continents and other years and claiming that it was the end of the world. Their apologists will claim they were "just raising awareness" or "drawing attention to the tragedy," but in reality they're doing more harm than good.
  - throwaway5752 7y ago
    Interesting, I think that climate change, slash and burn agricultural practices on marginal land, and the inability of the biome to re-establish itself is what is doing the harm. I never even once gave a single thought to what "celebrities" or other people that were wrong are saying, just like how I deal with right wingers that deny climate change is occurring.
    - mcantelon 7y ago
      Celebrities actually do have influence, horrifying as that is.
      - throwaway5752 7y ago
        And I would argue that it's hard to overstate the harm of global warming, so a few ignorant celebrities being incorrect against the mountains of well fund misinformation is not doing more harm than good. They are wrong on the scientifically correct side of the issue, and that matters. They are unlikely to cause harm to anyone, like climate change denier or Jenny McCarthy on vaccines.
        shard972 7y ago
        And then people like yourself scream and rage when you see a result like Boris Johnston being elected and wonder why anyone would vote for such a "liar". When you are at the point of openly arguing with people that as long as "fact" supports the right cause, truth be damned, how on earth can you blame people for not trusting you? The worst part is that people like yourself are too blind to see that the only people who buy into these bullshit overstatements are already on your side, your just perpetuating your own doom.
jefft255 7y ago
Some have been intentionally sensationalist, but the main lesson here is that maps are hard. Both making and reading them.
- wutbrodo 7y ago
  I'm not sure that is the lesson. I don't doubt that maps are hard, but there are plenty of capable people making decent ones all the time (the OP article contains a link to BBC's own visualizations). All of the issues described in the linked article are complete sloppiness or dishonesty, not mistakes due to the difficulties of map visualizations.
JorgeGT 7y ago
I advise knowledgeable people to look at the data themselves! Nowadays anyone can browse, download and process open access satellite data (Landsat, Sentinel, Terra, Aqua, Suomi-NPP, etc.) with open source tools (QGIS, Python, etc.). In this specific topic I recommend taking a look at the work of Pierre Marcuse: https://pierre-markuse.net/2018/04/30/visualizing-wildfires-burn-scars-sentinel-hub-eo-browser/ https://pierre-markuse.net/2018/04/30/visualizing-wildfires-... I have to admit, my grandpa was a wildfire firefighter coordinator and still, I wasn't really aware of wildfires being this very thin front behaving like a fractal until I saw this kind of satellite data: https://twitter.com/Pierre_Markuse/status/1194998777234513921 https://twitter.com/Pierre_Markuse/status/119499877723451392...
sagichmal 7y ago
This article is manipulative, bordering on malicious. Its claim boils down to "Data visualization techniques can't be interpreted literally" -- which is obvious -- but is titled and written in such a way to provide ammunition to climate change deniers that "the other side" is being loose with facts, or something. Absolute and insulting garbage. Whoever wrote this, edited it, approved it for release, and whoever posted it here, should be ashamed.
- mc32 7y ago
  Not really. It does the cause (ecological) harm when obviously misleading maps are posted as representations of fire damage. It gives the impression Australia is a burnt cinder with no unburnt areas left.
  - sagichmal 7y ago
    > obviously misleading maps are posted as representations of fire damage The maps referenced in the article aren't "obviously misleading" -- data visualization techniques are always lossy, that's just how they work. Claiming they're misleading is the real deception.
- rad_gruchalski 7y ago
  > Absolute and insulting garbage. Whoever wrote this, edited it, approved it for release, and whoever posted it here, should be ashamed. Why. Because it doesn’t support climate change?
  - SlowRobotAhead 7y ago
    Here I would have thought the sheer number of people arrested across the country for intentionally starting fires would have been enough to silence anyone claiming this was climate change. Newscorp estimating 10% of the arsonists are under 10 years old. Edit: Ah, we’re taking trends over actual arrests. OK. My mistake.
    - viraptor 7y ago
7952 7y ago
I appreciate the clarity of the BBC maps. Having said that, the entire point of a map is to artificially represent something that cannot be perceived naturally. All maps are a simplification of reality. And a graphically misleading map can be better because it helps people understand the truth. It is like a metaphor or analogy.
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  > And a graphically misleading map can be better because it helps people understand the truth. Not if the reader doesn't understand the exact extent to which the map doesn't correspond to the territory. Just like with a metaphor or analogy.
- big_chungus 7y ago
  So it's okay to spread a graphic that exaggerates the data as long as it's "helping to understand the truth"? Is not your perception of the magnitude of the truth subjective? This is another way of saying that it's okay to mislead as long as the issue is sufficiently important and/or people aren't taking it seriously enough (in your judgement). Metaphors and analogies are supposed to make a concept clearer, not to show scale. A gif with each frame showing the data from each day would have a similar impact but be clearer.
dekhn 7y ago
At least partly an instance of "maps which actually just population heatmaps"
- Ivoah 7y ago
  https://xkcd.com/1138/ https://xkcd.com/1138/
- manicdee 7y ago
  Less than 1%, the rest is actual bushfires. The area burned so far is larger than most European countries. Entire towns have been razed, breeding grounds for various animals are destroyed and the fire in Kangaroo Island decimated the population of chlamydia-free koalas. Even worse is that this mass clearing of forests will lead to a drastic increase in new growth which will lead to worse conditions for fires next year (since young plants with shallower root systems will dry out faster)
keyle 7y ago
It's true that the images are slightly outlandish due to the compilation of data over a long period of time. Also not all these fires were or are of the same size or nature (winds, fast moving or slow moving, controlled or wild). But regardless it's been tragic and devastating. If you want to shock people, forget showing maps or even pictures of destroyed homes; just show them the footage of burning koalas being rescued and dying off their injuries; that's far more visceral. I can't even watch it without tearing up (from a local's perspective).
- reaperducer 7y ago
  It's true that the images are slightly outlandish due to the compilation of data over a long period of time. According to the article, it's also true that a lot of places labeled as being on fire are actually things like furnaces, the roofs of large buildings, and "any heat source that is hotter than its surroundings." The NASA maps are significantly more accurate. According to the article, it has a false-positive rate of just 1%.
- grecy 7y ago
  > If you want to shock people, forget showing maps or even pictures of destroyed homes; just show them the footage of burning koalas being rescued and dying off their injuries; that's far more visceral Also be sure to mention 500,000 animals have been killed in these fires.
  - bluedino 7y ago
    It's up to one billion now (true or not, I saw it online)
    - dx87 7y ago
      A few days ago, they were saying 500 million plants and animals are affected, so that includes things like birds that flew away and will come back once the fire is gone. Not sure which source is more reliable. It looks like the 1 billion number also includes invertabrates, so I guess things like bugs. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australia-wildfires-animals-plants-glaciers-sydney-koalas-nsw-a9267316.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/austral...
thomasfoster96 7y ago
As the BBC article suggests, generally the most accurate maps of where recent fires are and how much they’ve burnt are the state government fire or emergency services websites. Unfortunately they are state-by-state (which isn’t usually a problem, but does mean there’s not a good whole-of-Australia map), and some of them show all emergencies, not just fires. ACT: https://esa.act.gov.au https://esa.act.gov.au New South Wales: https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me Northern Territory: https://www.pfes.nt.gov.au/incidentmap/ https://www.pfes.nt.gov.au/incidentmap/ Queensland: https://www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au/map/Pages/default.aspx https://www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au/map/Pages/default.aspx South Australia: https://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/home.jsp https://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/home.jsp Tasmania: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/Show?pageId=colGMapBushfires http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/Show?pageId=colGMapBushfires Victoria: https://www.emergency.vic.gov.au/respond/ https://www.emergency.vic.gov.au/respond/ Western Australia: https://www.emergency.wa.gov.au https://www.emergency.wa.gov.au
- cmroanirgo 7y ago
  > there’s not a good whole-of-Australia map This one (from WA) covers the whole country, and shows a) where the fire fronts and b) what's been burnt. This website is actually linked to in the main article (MyFireWatch): https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/ https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/ It's also the one that ends up being doctored then played around social media. As a 'side note' though, the article mentions: > In contrast to MyFireWatch maps (left), blue symbols on New South Wales Rural Fire Service maps (right) give 'Advice' warnings, indicating no immediate danger This is blatantly misleading. Blue means there are fires still active in the area, the MyFireWatch shows exactly where those active fires are. And personal experience has shown that Blue can become Yellow and then Red within a space of 10 minutes.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - thomasfoster96 7y ago
    > [...] MyFireWatch shows exactly where those active fires are. I didn’t link to MyFireWatch precisely because it is showing ‘hotspots’ from the past 72 hours, which is not necessarily the same thing as mapping actual reported fires, hence the confusion of some of the maps talked about in the article. The data on MyFireWatch on areas which have burned is also very inaccurate for some states (Tasmania and Victoria at least). MyFireWatch explicitly says not to use their map in an emergency[0], because the ‘latest’ hotspot data can be up to four hours old, can be up to 2km out of place (5km in extremes), and may not show fires obscured from or otherwise undetectable from the satellite. [0] https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/disclaimer.html https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/disclaimer.html
throwaway5752 7y ago
This pales in comparison to the actual problem, climate change. There are people that deny it is happening while profiting from it, and those people are in positions of power. A cumulative visualization of the scope of the fires that is being misinterpreted as real time is farting into a hurricane in comparison.
- Mountain_Skies 7y ago
  Using misleading images gives climate change deniers justification for their skepticism. One might think that doesn't matter because those people would never believe anyway but there are plenty of people on the fence who are going to see this false information about the scope of the fires as proof that those speaking about climate change are dishonest and have a hidden agenda. Credibility matters.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - dv_dt 7y ago
    Priorities also matter, one can't help but notice the BBC put work into this, but not in reporting in the links between drought fires and our climate crisis.
    - olivermarks 7y ago
      Strike Force Indarra https://www.theleader.com.au/story/6566610/police-strike-force-to-investigate-cause-of-bushfires/ https://www.theleader.com.au/story/6566610/police-strike-for...
      - throwaway5752 7y ago
        https://aic.gov.au/publications/rpp/rpp129/arson https://aic.gov.au/publications/rpp/rpp129/arson "Alternatively, a national figure can be obtained by aggregating publicly available data on arson that are available from each state and territory police jurisdiction. Based on these figures, there were approximately 14,975 incidents of arson recorded by police in 2011–12. This is likely to be an underestimate owing to the various ways in which different police jurisdictions define arson for statistical purposes, as well as the omission of unreported incidents. To estimate the number of arson incidents not reported to police, Mayhew (2003a, 2003b) used a multiplier of 3.0. Applying this to the above police recorded crime figure, in 2011–12 there were an estimated 44,925 incidents of arson." So there are about ~100 cases of arson per day in Australia in a given year. What is different about bush fires this year?
55555 7y ago
Misleading stats too. I've seen countless articles mention that 500,000,000 animals have died. I was skeptical as to how you could even devise such a number reliably so I looked into the source of this statistic. First off, this number was devised by a single Uni professor. How? He multiplied the square-mile density of each species by the amount of territory that's burned. Secondly, and he notes this in his estimate, it's 500,000,000 "killed _or affected_", not just killed. Third, for almost all species, there are no density figures, so he just picked the number 10 (lol, yes, seriously). Fourth, roughly 30% of those estimated animals are birds, of which other experts say 99% would survive because, ya know, they can fly away. Of the other 70%, many others would have just walked or slithered or run and gotten away from the fire. Basically some guy just made up a number of animals that exist and everyone else just assumed that 100% of them were killed. Terrible "science." Many bigger news sites have braced themselves for pushback on this stat by adding "and plants" ("500,000,000 animals and plants") so that their use of the statistic can't be criticized later.
- Aperocky 7y ago
  This is all too common, especially when it comes to politically charged discussion. Imagine saying data is incorrect/impossible and being called cold hearted, unconcerned with future of planet, hate people, or supporting evil or being a shill.
- samcday 7y ago
  Not sure if you've seen the following statement from University of Sydney, but they're standing by the estimate: https://sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/01/03/a-statement-about-the-480-million-animals-killed-in-nsw-bushfire.html https://sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/01/03/a-stateme... In fact, they've pointed out the 500 million figure is a conservative estimate, and is likely to be much higher: "... The true loss of animal life is likely to be much higher than 480 million. ..."
  - mistermann 7y ago
    > The authors deliberately employed highly conservative estimates in making their calculations. The true mortality is likely to be substantially higher than those estimated. It's a shame the University of Sydney doesn't have access to this study such that they could have included a link so skeptical people could see for themselves the specifics of this alleged conservatism. Not doing that causes my intuition to question the truthiness of these claims, so I will file this item under "Unknown-Suspicious".
lysp 7y ago
Here is a realtime satellite "hotspot" service: https://hotspots.dea.ga.gov.au/ https://hotspots.dea.ga.gov.au/ And an image (as of now) incase it's geo-locked: https://i.imgur.com/qWEMM7D.jpg https://i.imgur.com/qWEMM7D.jpg Here is another image of Victoria with current outstanding fires: https://i.imgur.com/izZt1lV.jpg https://i.imgur.com/izZt1lV.jpg
larnmar 7y ago
Is anyone aware of any compelling evidence that these fires were meaningfully worsened by climate change?
- XorNot 7y ago
  You mean like how this year is the latest in a long run of parts of the country breaking temperature records year round, as well the general uptick in mean-surface temperature since 1950 - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/2018/#tabs=Temperature http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/2018/#tabs=... ? Or that we're in one of the longest droughts on record, with many rural towns prior to this (and still actively) running out of water (as in, no water in the pipes at all), and Sydney on water-restrictions? Mysteriously, Australia has been having a multi-decadal run of consistently seeing the factors which would be worsened by global warming, get worse.
- nl 7y ago
  What would you consider as compelling evidence? Predictions made 10 years ago are now being met.
  - hyperdunc 7y ago
    Some predictions are being met. The ones that aren't are generally forgotten.
    - nl 7y ago
      Fire seasons are getting longer because of climate change. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-17/drought-bushfire-seasons-starting-earlier-lasting-longer/10132570 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-17/drought-bushfire-seas... (note that this is before the current bushfires) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26172867 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26172867 Droughts are getting worse because of climate change (and of course in Australia droughts make bushfires worse because there is more dry scrub, and hazard reduction burns are too dangerous to do). https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/06/water-resources-minister-totally-accepts-drought-linked-to-climate-change https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/06/water-re...
incompatible 7y ago
There is apparently worse misinformation out there than some misleading maps, e.g., "Bots and trolls spread false arson claims in Australian fires ‘disinformation campaign’: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/08/twitter-bots-trolls-australian-bushfires-social-media-disinformation-campaign-false-claims https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/08/twitt...
- Polylactic_acid 7y ago
  Yep, While all misinformation is bad, its better that we over prepare rather than under prepare. Reminds me of the quote that went something like "But what if its wrong, we might accidentally make the world a better place for no reason."
- flukus 7y ago
  Not to mention crazy conspiracy theorists calling the whole thing fake, we've had a few of those right here on HN. As if something of this magnitude can be made up. Climate change denialists (this is just the latest offshoot of a long running campaign with the same tactics) are starting to make flat earthers look well reasoned and sane.
rohfle 7y ago
After the sky turned orange in New Zealand a few days ago from the smoke from the Australian bushfires [1], I stumbled across this blog post by Scott Bachmeier: https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog/archives/35342 https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog/archives/35342 The post contains relevant satellite imagery taken from Himiwari-8 showing the creation of pyrocumulonimbus clouds from the fires, along with thermal imaging. There is also a technical explanation about how the thermal anomalies are detected. The smoke cloud is now heading to the middle of pacific ocean and is still visible from space [2] [1]: https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/118597927/in-pictures-aucklands-sky-turns-orange-as-australian-bushfire-smoke-moves-to-nz https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/118597927/in-pictures-auckl... [2]: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&z=1&im=50&ts=6&st=20200105125036&et=20200108003037&speed=250&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&x=7070.933349609375&y=18008.533203125 https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&z=1&im=...
lmiller1990 7y ago
I'm not really a social media guy, but my relatives live near the badly impacted areas and I can confirm the damage done to a lot of communities is very significant.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
anotheryou 7y ago
not that much different if you show it cumulative (where there have been fires in recent weeks). Just not claiming to be a snapshot. https://i.imgur.com/VKOZ12Y.png https://i.imgur.com/VKOZ12Y.png

165 points by pionerkotik 7y ago

e40 7y ago

I'm a big fan of https://www.memeorandum.com/ https://www.memeorandum.com/ but I saw a story on there that "almost 200 people had been arrested for setting fires" ... only to find Alex Jones was one of the sources. Crikey.

vondur 7y ago
Well, it does seem to be semi factual, 183 people had been arrested, "only 24 of them for arson: 24 people have been charged over alleged deliberately-lit bushfires 53 people have had legal actions for allegedly failing to comply with a total fire ban, and 47 people have had legal actions for allegedly discarding a lighted cigarette or match on land. Source: https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_src=%2BdXJsPWh0dHBzJTNBJTJGJTJGZWJpenByZC5wb2xpY2UubnN3Lmdvdi5hdSUyRm1lZGlhJTJGODIyNjQuaHRtbCZhbGw9MQ%3D%3D https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_s...
- johnbrodie 7y ago
  No one issuing these clarifications seems to also impart that those are only NSW numbers. Do we know what the totals are across the entire country?
  - lazyasciiart 7y ago
    They should also be including previous years data - I’ve seen a lot of people who appear to think arson was invented this summer. And a mind blowing few who think it was invented by people desperate to keep the climate change hoax going :/
    - mcantelon 7y ago
      24 people being charged with arson, deliberately setting forest fires, during this season seems like a lot.
      - lazyasciiart 7y ago
        I'm sure it does, to people who don't realize what the usual numbers are. That's why it should only be presented with the context of data from previous years. And that data says >The Australian Productivity Commission has calculated that between 2001–02 and 2006–07, [there was] an average of nearly 54,000 fires per year (SGRSP 2008). ... It is estimated that 50 percent of fires are either deliberately lit or suspicious in origin as shown in Figure 1. https://aic.gov.au/publications/bfab/bfab059 https://aic.gov.au/publications/bfab/bfab059 edit: and to compare arson charges specifically, the same article says that between 2001 and 2006 there were 133 convicted bushfire arsonists in New South Wales - or about 20 per year convicted in a single state. Since there probably isn't a 100% conviction rate, I'd expect the total number charged each year for the whole country is along the order of 50 people.
        mcantelon 7y ago
        That's pretty crazy... if there's 133 convicted in that time span then the actual number of folks doing this might be considerably larger. This seems like a subject worth someone doing a documentary about given this is likely, if it's happening in Australia, happening in many other places.
        lazyasciiart 7y ago
        Of course it's larger, its tens of thousands of fires deliberately lit each year. There are books, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a documentary somewhere.
    - rrrhys 7y ago
      It's just a deflection point from certain media. Commented elsewhere: Arson has been stable for 24 months to September 2019, it's a shame the data capture stops there. It's made up to deflect. https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/RCS-Quarterly/NSW_Recorded_Crime_Sept_2019.pdf https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/RCS-Quarterly/NSW_Re... crime / 2018 / 2019 / Trend Arson / 5,692 / 4,934 / Stable
- WilTimSon 7y ago
  I think their complaint isn't about the story not being factual but about the fact that Alex Jones is an insane person/outrage feeder who shouldn't be quoted as a source. Instead, they could have quoted, well, the source you give. It's much more credible, after all.
  - reaperducer 7y ago
    The problem is that even a broken clock is correct twice a day. And for the sort of people who follow conspiracy theory whackjobs, that's all they need.
    - manicdee 7y ago
      A STOPPED clock is correct twice a day, as long as you already know what the time is you can tell that the clock is right at this time. A broken clock will always be wrong. Even if you already know what the time it, the fact that the broken clock looks like it is working will lead you to wanting to believe that it might be right just this once.
      - HeWhoLurksLate 7y ago
        Stopped clocks are generally considered to be a subset of broken clocks.
        manicdee 7y ago
        My apologies for not being extremely pedantic about my definitions in an allegory.
  - mcantelon 7y ago
    Insane people/outrage feeders will only be tolerated if they serve an establishment agenda.
    - __jal 7y ago
      No, but even if the crazy person is correct in this instance, I'm still not relying on them for political/personal safety/vitamin/any other information of any consequence.
- madeofpalk 7y ago
  Also, IIRC the number refers to people who were arrested as late as three months before the current fires.
  - SlowRobotAhead 7y ago
    That’s 24 caught. How many were not caught? https://m.dw.com/en/australia-police-arrest-man-accused-of-starting-bushfires/a-51234527 https://m.dw.com/en/australia-police-arrest-man-accused-of-s... I’m not sure what would possess someone to do this. As if the earth needs any more “help” from idiots, right!?
- cmroanirgo 7y ago
  As an aside, I didn't realise we had explicit laws for smoking: > Light or use a tobacco product within 15metres of any stack of grain, hay corn, straw or any standing crop, dry grass or stubble field – up to a $5500 fine. Mum grew up on a wheat station (meaning: huge farm/ranch) and always said that the wheat fires moved pretty quickly, so I suppose that's where this law comes from.
- e40 7y ago
  The item I put in quotes is very specific and not at all like what you quoted.
Maxious 7y ago
This figure is wrong, although Donald Trump Jr didn't round up the 183 to 200. https://twitter.com/jason_a_w/status/1214581876838428672 https://twitter.com/jason_a_w/status/1214581876838428672 The original police statement was "The NSW Police Force has taken legal action against more than 180 people for bushfire-related offences since late last year." of which only "24 people have been charged over alleged deliberately-lit bushfires". https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_src=%2BdXJsPWh0dHBzJTNBJTJGJTJGZWJpenByZC5wb2xpY2UubnN3Lmdvdi5hdSUyRm1lZGlhJTJGODIyNjQuaHRtbCZhbGw9MQ%3D%3D https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_s... Most of the offenses are for having a barbeque/campfire during a "total fire ban" day or discarding a lit cigarette - these receive formal cautions or fines > Discarding a cigarette from a vehicle can attract a fine for littering of $250, the NSW Environmental Protection Authority states. If it’s lit and tossed away, the fine is $660, which doubles on a day of total fire ban to $1320. > Lighting a fire on a day of total fire ban attracts an on the spot fine of $2200. If the matter goes to court, you could face a fine of up to $5500 or 12 months behind bars.
elfexec 7y ago
> only to find Alex Jones was one of the sources. Crikey. Was he right or wrong? I love the "appeal to authority" and "ad hominem" arguments made by people. Would you rather a lie from an "authoritative" source or a truth from a "wacko"?
- ticmasta 7y ago
  >> Would you rather a lie from an "authoritative" source or a truth from a "wacko" Well, an authoritative source can still be wrong but by definition does not lie, while a wacko can get it right occasionally without being truthful. It kind of feels like you're confusing single-roll probability with cumulative odds; who are you going to bet on over the long term?
  - elfexec 7y ago
    > Well, an authoritative source can still be wrong but by definition does not lie That's the type of thing I imagine someone in north korea saying. By definition does not lie? That's news to me and certainly not true of any "authoritative sources". Every authoritative sources has lied. Even more, every autoritative sources was created specifically to lie. If you think I'm wrong, go read about the creation of these "authoritative sources". Who created them and why? Even the hallowed BBC by definition told lies. Orwell worked for the BBC Eastern Service as a propagandist. It was one of his inspirations for 1984. You might have heard of him. > who are you going to bet on over the long term? Neither - especially when it comes to important issues. As I said the slavish "appeal to authority". It's the basis of all tyranny.
- mcantelon 7y ago
  The mainstream media can push conspiracy theories, such as Russiagate, until the cows come home but people are generally fine with that. During Russiagate numerous establishment outlets pushed blatantly false stories, such as Buzzfeed's story, refuted pretty much immediately by Mueller, about Trump supposedly directing Michael Cohen to lie to Congress and the Guardian's story about Manafort allegedly meeting with Assange at the Ecuadorian embassy (a meeting that likely never actually happened given there were no records of it at the embassy). Neither of these two example stories were retracted IIRC.

ggm 7y ago

The Guardian has a visualisation of the total area burned in this fire season, which can be overlayed on google maps to any location. It is not the size of 'currently burning' but is the size of 'burning, or burnt' https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2019/dec/07/how-big-are-the-fires-burning-on-the-east-coast-of-australia-interactive-map https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-inter...

savethefuture 7y ago

Didn't the same thing happen with the Amazon fires recently?

reaperducer 7y ago
Yes. Celebrities were spreading photos of fires on other continents and other years and claiming that it was the end of the world. Their apologists will claim they were "just raising awareness" or "drawing attention to the tragedy," but in reality they're doing more harm than good.
- throwaway5752 7y ago
  Interesting, I think that climate change, slash and burn agricultural practices on marginal land, and the inability of the biome to re-establish itself is what is doing the harm. I never even once gave a single thought to what "celebrities" or other people that were wrong are saying, just like how I deal with right wingers that deny climate change is occurring.
  - mcantelon 7y ago
    Celebrities actually do have influence, horrifying as that is.
    - throwaway5752 7y ago
      And I would argue that it's hard to overstate the harm of global warming, so a few ignorant celebrities being incorrect against the mountains of well fund misinformation is not doing more harm than good. They are wrong on the scientifically correct side of the issue, and that matters. They are unlikely to cause harm to anyone, like climate change denier or Jenny McCarthy on vaccines.
      - shard972 7y ago
        And then people like yourself scream and rage when you see a result like Boris Johnston being elected and wonder why anyone would vote for such a "liar". When you are at the point of openly arguing with people that as long as "fact" supports the right cause, truth be damned, how on earth can you blame people for not trusting you? The worst part is that people like yourself are too blind to see that the only people who buy into these bullshit overstatements are already on your side, your just perpetuating your own doom.

jefft255 7y ago

Some have been intentionally sensationalist, but the main lesson here is that maps are hard. Both making and reading them.

wutbrodo 7y ago
I'm not sure that is the lesson. I don't doubt that maps are hard, but there are plenty of capable people making decent ones all the time (the OP article contains a link to BBC's own visualizations). All of the issues described in the linked article are complete sloppiness or dishonesty, not mistakes due to the difficulties of map visualizations.

JorgeGT 7y ago

I advise knowledgeable people to look at the data themselves! Nowadays anyone can browse, download and process open access satellite data (Landsat, Sentinel, Terra, Aqua, Suomi-NPP, etc.) with open source tools (QGIS, Python, etc.). In this specific topic I recommend taking a look at the work of Pierre Marcuse: https://pierre-markuse.net/2018/04/30/visualizing-wildfires-burn-scars-sentinel-hub-eo-browser/ https://pierre-markuse.net/2018/04/30/visualizing-wildfires-... I have to admit, my grandpa was a wildfire firefighter coordinator and still, I wasn't really aware of wildfires being this very thin front behaving like a fractal until I saw this kind of satellite data: https://twitter.com/Pierre_Markuse/status/1194998777234513921 https://twitter.com/Pierre_Markuse/status/119499877723451392...

sagichmal 7y ago

This article is manipulative, bordering on malicious. Its claim boils down to "Data visualization techniques can't be interpreted literally" -- which is obvious -- but is titled and written in such a way to provide ammunition to climate change deniers that "the other side" is being loose with facts, or something. Absolute and insulting garbage. Whoever wrote this, edited it, approved it for release, and whoever posted it here, should be ashamed.

mc32 7y ago
Not really. It does the cause (ecological) harm when obviously misleading maps are posted as representations of fire damage. It gives the impression Australia is a burnt cinder with no unburnt areas left.
- sagichmal 7y ago
  > obviously misleading maps are posted as representations of fire damage The maps referenced in the article aren't "obviously misleading" -- data visualization techniques are always lossy, that's just how they work. Claiming they're misleading is the real deception.
rad_gruchalski 7y ago
> Absolute and insulting garbage. Whoever wrote this, edited it, approved it for release, and whoever posted it here, should be ashamed. Why. Because it doesn’t support climate change?
- SlowRobotAhead 7y ago
  Here I would have thought the sheer number of people arrested across the country for intentionally starting fires would have been enough to silence anyone claiming this was climate change. Newscorp estimating 10% of the arsonists are under 10 years old. Edit: Ah, we’re taking trends over actual arrests. OK. My mistake.
  - viraptor 7y ago

7952 7y ago

I appreciate the clarity of the BBC maps. Having said that, the entire point of a map is to artificially represent something that cannot be perceived naturally. All maps are a simplification of reality. And a graphically misleading map can be better because it helps people understand the truth. It is like a metaphor or analogy.

TeMPOraL 7y ago
> And a graphically misleading map can be better because it helps people understand the truth. Not if the reader doesn't understand the exact extent to which the map doesn't correspond to the territory. Just like with a metaphor or analogy.
big_chungus 7y ago
So it's okay to spread a graphic that exaggerates the data as long as it's "helping to understand the truth"? Is not your perception of the magnitude of the truth subjective? This is another way of saying that it's okay to mislead as long as the issue is sufficiently important and/or people aren't taking it seriously enough (in your judgement). Metaphors and analogies are supposed to make a concept clearer, not to show scale. A gif with each frame showing the data from each day would have a similar impact but be clearer.

dekhn 7y ago

At least partly an instance of "maps which actually just population heatmaps"

Ivoah 7y ago
https://xkcd.com/1138/ https://xkcd.com/1138/
manicdee 7y ago
Less than 1%, the rest is actual bushfires. The area burned so far is larger than most European countries. Entire towns have been razed, breeding grounds for various animals are destroyed and the fire in Kangaroo Island decimated the population of chlamydia-free koalas. Even worse is that this mass clearing of forests will lead to a drastic increase in new growth which will lead to worse conditions for fires next year (since young plants with shallower root systems will dry out faster)

keyle 7y ago

It's true that the images are slightly outlandish due to the compilation of data over a long period of time. Also not all these fires were or are of the same size or nature (winds, fast moving or slow moving, controlled or wild). But regardless it's been tragic and devastating. If you want to shock people, forget showing maps or even pictures of destroyed homes; just show them the footage of burning koalas being rescued and dying off their injuries; that's far more visceral. I can't even watch it without tearing up (from a local's perspective).

reaperducer 7y ago
It's true that the images are slightly outlandish due to the compilation of data over a long period of time. According to the article, it's also true that a lot of places labeled as being on fire are actually things like furnaces, the roofs of large buildings, and "any heat source that is hotter than its surroundings." The NASA maps are significantly more accurate. According to the article, it has a false-positive rate of just 1%.
grecy 7y ago
> If you want to shock people, forget showing maps or even pictures of destroyed homes; just show them the footage of burning koalas being rescued and dying off their injuries; that's far more visceral Also be sure to mention 500,000 animals have been killed in these fires.
- bluedino 7y ago
  It's up to one billion now (true or not, I saw it online)
  - dx87 7y ago
    A few days ago, they were saying 500 million plants and animals are affected, so that includes things like birds that flew away and will come back once the fire is gone. Not sure which source is more reliable. It looks like the 1 billion number also includes invertabrates, so I guess things like bugs. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australia-wildfires-animals-plants-glaciers-sydney-koalas-nsw-a9267316.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/austral...

thomasfoster96 7y ago

As the BBC article suggests, generally the most accurate maps of where recent fires are and how much they’ve burnt are the state government fire or emergency services websites. Unfortunately they are state-by-state (which isn’t usually a problem, but does mean there’s not a good whole-of-Australia map), and some of them show all emergencies, not just fires. ACT: https://esa.act.gov.au https://esa.act.gov.au New South Wales: https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me Northern Territory: https://www.pfes.nt.gov.au/incidentmap/ https://www.pfes.nt.gov.au/incidentmap/ Queensland: https://www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au/map/Pages/default.aspx https://www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au/map/Pages/default.aspx South Australia: https://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/home.jsp https://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/home.jsp Tasmania: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/Show?pageId=colGMapBushfires http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/Show?pageId=colGMapBushfires Victoria: https://www.emergency.vic.gov.au/respond/ https://www.emergency.vic.gov.au/respond/ Western Australia: https://www.emergency.wa.gov.au https://www.emergency.wa.gov.au

cmroanirgo 7y ago
> there’s not a good whole-of-Australia map This one (from WA) covers the whole country, and shows a) where the fire fronts and b) what's been burnt. This website is actually linked to in the main article (MyFireWatch): https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/ https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/ It's also the one that ends up being doctored then played around social media. As a 'side note' though, the article mentions: > In contrast to MyFireWatch maps (left), blue symbols on New South Wales Rural Fire Service maps (right) give 'Advice' warnings, indicating no immediate danger This is blatantly misleading. Blue means there are fires still active in the area, the MyFireWatch shows exactly where those active fires are. And personal experience has shown that Blue can become Yellow and then Red within a space of 10 minutes.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- thomasfoster96 7y ago
  > [...] MyFireWatch shows exactly where those active fires are. I didn’t link to MyFireWatch precisely because it is showing ‘hotspots’ from the past 72 hours, which is not necessarily the same thing as mapping actual reported fires, hence the confusion of some of the maps talked about in the article. The data on MyFireWatch on areas which have burned is also very inaccurate for some states (Tasmania and Victoria at least). MyFireWatch explicitly says not to use their map in an emergency[0], because the ‘latest’ hotspot data can be up to four hours old, can be up to 2km out of place (5km in extremes), and may not show fires obscured from or otherwise undetectable from the satellite. [0] https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/disclaimer.html https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/disclaimer.html

throwaway5752 7y ago

This pales in comparison to the actual problem, climate change. There are people that deny it is happening while profiting from it, and those people are in positions of power. A cumulative visualization of the scope of the fires that is being misinterpreted as real time is farting into a hurricane in comparison.

Mountain_Skies 7y ago
Using misleading images gives climate change deniers justification for their skepticism. One might think that doesn't matter because those people would never believe anyway but there are plenty of people on the fence who are going to see this false information about the scope of the fires as proof that those speaking about climate change are dishonest and have a hidden agenda. Credibility matters.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- dv_dt 7y ago
  Priorities also matter, one can't help but notice the BBC put work into this, but not in reporting in the links between drought fires and our climate crisis.
  - olivermarks 7y ago
    Strike Force Indarra https://www.theleader.com.au/story/6566610/police-strike-force-to-investigate-cause-of-bushfires/ https://www.theleader.com.au/story/6566610/police-strike-for...
    - throwaway5752 7y ago
      https://aic.gov.au/publications/rpp/rpp129/arson https://aic.gov.au/publications/rpp/rpp129/arson "Alternatively, a national figure can be obtained by aggregating publicly available data on arson that are available from each state and territory police jurisdiction. Based on these figures, there were approximately 14,975 incidents of arson recorded by police in 2011–12. This is likely to be an underestimate owing to the various ways in which different police jurisdictions define arson for statistical purposes, as well as the omission of unreported incidents. To estimate the number of arson incidents not reported to police, Mayhew (2003a, 2003b) used a multiplier of 3.0. Applying this to the above police recorded crime figure, in 2011–12 there were an estimated 44,925 incidents of arson." So there are about ~100 cases of arson per day in Australia in a given year. What is different about bush fires this year?

55555 7y ago

Misleading stats too. I've seen countless articles mention that 500,000,000 animals have died. I was skeptical as to how you could even devise such a number reliably so I looked into the source of this statistic. First off, this number was devised by a single Uni professor. How? He multiplied the square-mile density of each species by the amount of territory that's burned. Secondly, and he notes this in his estimate, it's 500,000,000 "killed _or affected_", not just killed. Third, for almost all species, there are no density figures, so he just picked the number 10 (lol, yes, seriously). Fourth, roughly 30% of those estimated animals are birds, of which other experts say 99% would survive because, ya know, they can fly away. Of the other 70%, many others would have just walked or slithered or run and gotten away from the fire. Basically some guy just made up a number of animals that exist and everyone else just assumed that 100% of them were killed. Terrible "science." Many bigger news sites have braced themselves for pushback on this stat by adding "and plants" ("500,000,000 animals and plants") so that their use of the statistic can't be criticized later.

Aperocky 7y ago
This is all too common, especially when it comes to politically charged discussion. Imagine saying data is incorrect/impossible and being called cold hearted, unconcerned with future of planet, hate people, or supporting evil or being a shill.
samcday 7y ago
Not sure if you've seen the following statement from University of Sydney, but they're standing by the estimate: https://sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/01/03/a-statement-about-the-480-million-animals-killed-in-nsw-bushfire.html https://sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/01/03/a-stateme... In fact, they've pointed out the 500 million figure is a conservative estimate, and is likely to be much higher: "... The true loss of animal life is likely to be much higher than 480 million. ..."
- mistermann 7y ago
  > The authors deliberately employed highly conservative estimates in making their calculations. The true mortality is likely to be substantially higher than those estimated. It's a shame the University of Sydney doesn't have access to this study such that they could have included a link so skeptical people could see for themselves the specifics of this alleged conservatism. Not doing that causes my intuition to question the truthiness of these claims, so I will file this item under "Unknown-Suspicious".

lysp 7y ago

Here is a realtime satellite "hotspot" service: https://hotspots.dea.ga.gov.au/ https://hotspots.dea.ga.gov.au/ And an image (as of now) incase it's geo-locked: https://i.imgur.com/qWEMM7D.jpg https://i.imgur.com/qWEMM7D.jpg Here is another image of Victoria with current outstanding fires: https://i.imgur.com/izZt1lV.jpg https://i.imgur.com/izZt1lV.jpg

larnmar 7y ago

Is anyone aware of any compelling evidence that these fires were meaningfully worsened by climate change?

XorNot 7y ago
You mean like how this year is the latest in a long run of parts of the country breaking temperature records year round, as well the general uptick in mean-surface temperature since 1950 - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/2018/#tabs=Temperature http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/2018/#tabs=... ? Or that we're in one of the longest droughts on record, with many rural towns prior to this (and still actively) running out of water (as in, no water in the pipes at all), and Sydney on water-restrictions? Mysteriously, Australia has been having a multi-decadal run of consistently seeing the factors which would be worsened by global warming, get worse.
nl 7y ago
What would you consider as compelling evidence? Predictions made 10 years ago are now being met.
- hyperdunc 7y ago
  Some predictions are being met. The ones that aren't are generally forgotten.
  - nl 7y ago
    Fire seasons are getting longer because of climate change. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-17/drought-bushfire-seasons-starting-earlier-lasting-longer/10132570 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-17/drought-bushfire-seas... (note that this is before the current bushfires) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26172867 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26172867 Droughts are getting worse because of climate change (and of course in Australia droughts make bushfires worse because there is more dry scrub, and hazard reduction burns are too dangerous to do). https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/06/water-resources-minister-totally-accepts-drought-linked-to-climate-change https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/06/water-re...

incompatible 7y ago

There is apparently worse misinformation out there than some misleading maps, e.g., "Bots and trolls spread false arson claims in Australian fires ‘disinformation campaign’: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/08/twitter-bots-trolls-australian-bushfires-social-media-disinformation-campaign-false-claims https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/08/twitt...

Polylactic_acid 7y ago
Yep, While all misinformation is bad, its better that we over prepare rather than under prepare. Reminds me of the quote that went something like "But what if its wrong, we might accidentally make the world a better place for no reason."
flukus 7y ago
Not to mention crazy conspiracy theorists calling the whole thing fake, we've had a few of those right here on HN. As if something of this magnitude can be made up. Climate change denialists (this is just the latest offshoot of a long running campaign with the same tactics) are starting to make flat earthers look well reasoned and sane.

rohfle 7y ago

After the sky turned orange in New Zealand a few days ago from the smoke from the Australian bushfires [1], I stumbled across this blog post by Scott Bachmeier: https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog/archives/35342 https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog/archives/35342 The post contains relevant satellite imagery taken from Himiwari-8 showing the creation of pyrocumulonimbus clouds from the fires, along with thermal imaging. There is also a technical explanation about how the thermal anomalies are detected. The smoke cloud is now heading to the middle of pacific ocean and is still visible from space [2] [1]: https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/118597927/in-pictures-aucklands-sky-turns-orange-as-australian-bushfire-smoke-moves-to-nz https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/118597927/in-pictures-auckl... [2]: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&z=1&im=50&ts=6&st=20200105125036&et=20200108003037&speed=250&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&x=7070.933349609375&y=18008.533203125 https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&z=1&im=...

lmiller1990 7y ago

I'm not really a social media guy, but my relatives live near the badly impacted areas and I can confirm the damage done to a lot of communities is very significant.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

anotheryou 7y ago

not that much different if you show it cumulative (where there have been fires in recent weeks). Just not claiming to be a snapshot. https://i.imgur.com/VKOZ12Y.png https://i.imgur.com/VKOZ12Y.png