7 ms·

This post is related to the delusional discount that we all apply to luck. Luck is the by far the single most important factor in success, but observing that re

This post is related to the delusional discount that we all apply to luck. Luck is the by far the single most important factor in success, but observing that reality is counter productive. It keeps us working like mad and blaming ourselves if we aren't successful, but without out that delusion no one would play the game and we would have zero successful people. Humanity would suffer.

benjaminsuch 7y ago
I don't think luck is the most important factor. Sure luck can and often plays a role but it's the human being who has to realize and take advantage of it. And even then, he has to put a lot of effort into his work.
- dazc 7y ago
  Many of us will experience a few lucky opportunities during our lifetimes but, sometimes, we only see these chances with the benefit of hindsight.
- vsareto 7y ago
  Most of the luck is geographic and what country gives you citizenship. Then it's how well off your parents are because that affects your resources and access to knowledge growing up. If those things are good from the start, you don't have to spend years correcting them.
  - esotericn 7y ago
    Your initial dice roll is random, but after that, the actions you take are meaningful. It makes far more sense to compare amongst individuals in a peer group.
- james_s_tayler 7y ago
  I took a trip to Vegas once and met a cab driver from Somalia. I was surprised. As far as I understand you can't even get a passport in Somalia as there is no central government to issue them. His brothers and sisters and aunts and uncles probably aren't in America, but he made it. I don't think being hardworking in Puntland and being prepared to seize the opportunity and by opportunity I mean Oil Tanker that comes along really leads to the same quality of life as winning the genetic lottery to be born in a nice country and also having the fortune of being someone who for some reason enjoys working hard. Luck is massive. Hardwork is also massive. Luck towers over hardwork, but if you want to be somewhere other than you are you better not be coasting.
  - dragonwriter 7y ago
    > As far as I understand you can't even get a passport in Somalia as there is no central government to issue them. There is, in fact, a central government of the Federal Republic of Somalia, and it does issue passports.
amelius 7y ago
In particular it is the game played by VCs, putting tremendous risk on founders, while they themselves spread all the risk.
- draugadrotten 7y ago
  Why do you blame the VCs for the (lack of) action by the founders? The founders are responsible for taking the risk, not their mothers and not their VCs.
  - mgamache 7y ago
    I think the parent is saying that VCs take advantage of this delusion and try and profit from it. VCs are able amortize their risk over many companies. If 5% hit big VC's are making money.
- sjg007 7y ago
  VCs are amortizing the risk which increases the probability of success. It's a strategy to improve the odds and give yourself better luck.
kjhughes 7y ago
That ax you have to grind is worn so thin that you best set it down and hope your trees will fall by luck.
- mgamache 7y ago
  I really have no axe to grind, I think you are misreading my intent. Just an observation of one particular lie/distortion that humans subscribe to. It's a useful for humanity, but not necessarily for the individual. It could even be a trait that was selected for via evolution.
  - kjhughes 7y ago
    Sam's advice deserves more consideration than is afforded by your unproductive interpretation of the interaction between luck and success. Success is not a "lie/distortion that humans subscribe to." It's the result of a combination of hard work and clever insight to achieve a goal in an uncertain environment. Prevailing in the face of uncertainty shouldn't be discounted as luck, and Sam's post shouldn't be discounted by implying that luck is more important than everything else he had to say.
    - mgamache 7y ago
      okay one more time... I am not trying to convince you to try or not. I am pointing out humans systemically discount of luck as a factor in achieving success. I suggest this might benefit groups more then individuals. And this group effect might be why this distortion persists. It might be true that the only way to be successful is by ignoring elements you can't control (like luck) and without this no one would try anything. Ask a startup what their odds of success are. I guarantee that they'll give you a much better odds vs the objective reality. This delusion has created an economic engine of high-tech startups even if most startups fail (>90%).
z5h 7y ago
Imagine two people in a similar situation, except the first has been saving money and working on a side project, while the second spends their money and has no side project. They both lose their job with some severance pay. The first sees it as an a lucky opportunity to work full-time on their side project. The second sees it as bad luck. Luck is important, but we can make some of our own.
- save_ferris 7y ago
  That’s not luck, though. That’s simply being prepared for a downturn. Being prepared is important, for sure, but if being prepared always or even usually meant desired outcomes in business, our world would look much different than it does now.
  - username90 7y ago
    Being able to quit with severance pay is lucky if you wanted to quit.
- jimkri 7y ago
  I also feel that this is related to the persons point of view on the situation. If the person that lost their job with no side project but was able to spend more time with their family, I think that is a win if they can look at it from that point of view. I feel that luck is important, but also understanding the situation fully and having a positive point of view. Basically the mental state of the person is important.
- SigmundA 7y ago
  "similar situation" is where the bulk of the luck resides. Where you born and to whom, the ovarian lottery. Everything else is very minor but yes it makes a difference.
nestorherre 7y ago
"Good Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Oportunity". And I would add to that "...oportunity, and you act upon it". Internal locus of control fella.
SigmundA 7y ago
I have definitely fallen into this. I am not religious, and I have always wanted to know the truth, I hate BS. I know most of the reason I am where I am is is due to luck. As I get older I have come to realize this may have held me back, I see BS everywhere, it seems to drive society, you might call it belief, but I would call it delusion. The thing is if you can get enough people to believe you can get a lot done, its all about motivation. I would prefer a society where we embrace truth above all and accept that luck is mostly what the universe is about (Quantum uncertainty, ie the universe is trying to kill you) and that the purpose of society is to reduce the influence of luck in a successful life. The belief in a higher power would certainly help stay motivated.
- mgamache 7y ago
  me too... seeing the world clearly is limiting.
- Smithalicious 7y ago
  tips fedora
esotericn 7y ago
Your initial dice roll is the most important factor in success beginning from t=0. A child growing up with parents that own a home in London has a better shot in life than one growing up in the desert. However, there are many people who grew up in a household like yours, with a talent like yours, with the level of wealth you had, and so on and so forth. The distribution of outcomes of your adult life; e.g. the delta on that initial point; is not primarily due to luck. People don't act as if they're likely to be hit by a bus or win the lottery tomorrow, because they're not.
Tactic 7y ago
It depends upon how one defines success. If you mean Bill Gates or The Beatles level success, I will agree that luck plays an integral role. If you just mean a successful career that takes care of your needs and much of your wants, provides for a comfortable life and a family, I would argue motivation, dedication and skill play far larger roles. In fact I would say extreme success requires some extreme good luck, whereas a more "standard" success requires good luck less and is more about not having bad luck to counter your abilities.
sjg007 7y ago
I think you can make your own luck. Studying, moving to a high tech area, networking, working for a YC company, applying to YC all of those things increase your luckiness probability. Luck is being prepared right?
- collyw 7y ago
  This similar to the way I have looked at it - working hard will generate more chances of being lucky.

benjaminsuch 7y ago

I don't think luck is the most important factor. Sure luck can and often plays a role but it's the human being who has to realize and take advantage of it. And even then, he has to put a lot of effort into his work.

dazc 7y ago
Many of us will experience a few lucky opportunities during our lifetimes but, sometimes, we only see these chances with the benefit of hindsight.
vsareto 7y ago
Most of the luck is geographic and what country gives you citizenship. Then it's how well off your parents are because that affects your resources and access to knowledge growing up. If those things are good from the start, you don't have to spend years correcting them.
- esotericn 7y ago
  Your initial dice roll is random, but after that, the actions you take are meaningful. It makes far more sense to compare amongst individuals in a peer group.
james_s_tayler 7y ago
I took a trip to Vegas once and met a cab driver from Somalia. I was surprised. As far as I understand you can't even get a passport in Somalia as there is no central government to issue them. His brothers and sisters and aunts and uncles probably aren't in America, but he made it. I don't think being hardworking in Puntland and being prepared to seize the opportunity and by opportunity I mean Oil Tanker that comes along really leads to the same quality of life as winning the genetic lottery to be born in a nice country and also having the fortune of being someone who for some reason enjoys working hard. Luck is massive. Hardwork is also massive. Luck towers over hardwork, but if you want to be somewhere other than you are you better not be coasting.
- dragonwriter 7y ago
  > As far as I understand you can't even get a passport in Somalia as there is no central government to issue them. There is, in fact, a central government of the Federal Republic of Somalia, and it does issue passports.

amelius 7y ago

In particular it is the game played by VCs, putting tremendous risk on founders, while they themselves spread all the risk.

draugadrotten 7y ago
Why do you blame the VCs for the (lack of) action by the founders? The founders are responsible for taking the risk, not their mothers and not their VCs.
- mgamache 7y ago
  I think the parent is saying that VCs take advantage of this delusion and try and profit from it. VCs are able amortize their risk over many companies. If 5% hit big VC's are making money.
sjg007 7y ago
VCs are amortizing the risk which increases the probability of success. It's a strategy to improve the odds and give yourself better luck.

kjhughes 7y ago

That ax you have to grind is worn so thin that you best set it down and hope your trees will fall by luck.

mgamache 7y ago
I really have no axe to grind, I think you are misreading my intent. Just an observation of one particular lie/distortion that humans subscribe to. It's a useful for humanity, but not necessarily for the individual. It could even be a trait that was selected for via evolution.
- kjhughes 7y ago
  Sam's advice deserves more consideration than is afforded by your unproductive interpretation of the interaction between luck and success. Success is not a "lie/distortion that humans subscribe to." It's the result of a combination of hard work and clever insight to achieve a goal in an uncertain environment. Prevailing in the face of uncertainty shouldn't be discounted as luck, and Sam's post shouldn't be discounted by implying that luck is more important than everything else he had to say.
  - mgamache 7y ago
    okay one more time... I am not trying to convince you to try or not. I am pointing out humans systemically discount of luck as a factor in achieving success. I suggest this might benefit groups more then individuals. And this group effect might be why this distortion persists. It might be true that the only way to be successful is by ignoring elements you can't control (like luck) and without this no one would try anything. Ask a startup what their odds of success are. I guarantee that they'll give you a much better odds vs the objective reality. This delusion has created an economic engine of high-tech startups even if most startups fail (>90%).

z5h 7y ago

Imagine two people in a similar situation, except the first has been saving money and working on a side project, while the second spends their money and has no side project. They both lose their job with some severance pay. The first sees it as an a lucky opportunity to work full-time on their side project. The second sees it as bad luck. Luck is important, but we can make some of our own.

save_ferris 7y ago
That’s not luck, though. That’s simply being prepared for a downturn. Being prepared is important, for sure, but if being prepared always or even usually meant desired outcomes in business, our world would look much different than it does now.
- username90 7y ago
  Being able to quit with severance pay is lucky if you wanted to quit.
jimkri 7y ago
I also feel that this is related to the persons point of view on the situation. If the person that lost their job with no side project but was able to spend more time with their family, I think that is a win if they can look at it from that point of view. I feel that luck is important, but also understanding the situation fully and having a positive point of view. Basically the mental state of the person is important.
SigmundA 7y ago
"similar situation" is where the bulk of the luck resides. Where you born and to whom, the ovarian lottery. Everything else is very minor but yes it makes a difference.

nestorherre 7y ago

"Good Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Oportunity". And I would add to that "...oportunity, and you act upon it". Internal locus of control fella.

SigmundA 7y ago

I have definitely fallen into this. I am not religious, and I have always wanted to know the truth, I hate BS. I know most of the reason I am where I am is is due to luck. As I get older I have come to realize this may have held me back, I see BS everywhere, it seems to drive society, you might call it belief, but I would call it delusion. The thing is if you can get enough people to believe you can get a lot done, its all about motivation. I would prefer a society where we embrace truth above all and accept that luck is mostly what the universe is about (Quantum uncertainty, ie the universe is trying to kill you) and that the purpose of society is to reduce the influence of luck in a successful life. The belief in a higher power would certainly help stay motivated.

mgamache 7y ago
me too... seeing the world clearly is limiting.
Smithalicious 7y ago
tips fedora

esotericn 7y ago

Your initial dice roll is the most important factor in success beginning from t=0. A child growing up with parents that own a home in London has a better shot in life than one growing up in the desert. However, there are many people who grew up in a household like yours, with a talent like yours, with the level of wealth you had, and so on and so forth. The distribution of outcomes of your adult life; e.g. the delta on that initial point; is not primarily due to luck. People don't act as if they're likely to be hit by a bus or win the lottery tomorrow, because they're not.

Tactic 7y ago

It depends upon how one defines success. If you mean Bill Gates or The Beatles level success, I will agree that luck plays an integral role. If you just mean a successful career that takes care of your needs and much of your wants, provides for a comfortable life and a family, I would argue motivation, dedication and skill play far larger roles. In fact I would say extreme success requires some extreme good luck, whereas a more "standard" success requires good luck less and is more about not having bad luck to counter your abilities.

sjg007 7y ago

I think you can make your own luck. Studying, moving to a high tech area, networking, working for a YC company, applying to YC all of those things increase your luckiness probability. Luck is being prepared right?

collyw 7y ago
This similar to the way I have looked at it - working hard will generate more chances of being lucky.