3 ms·
> Things go up and down in the short term but in the long term things have reliably gone up. And yet, recent articles have warned that millennials may need to
by notJim 7y ago
> Things go up and down in the short term but in the long term things have reliably gone up.
And yet, recent articles have warned that millennials may need to save more than prior generations, because people are predicting weaker economic growth over the next ~50 years or so than the previous.
- scrumbledober 7y agoAnyone trying to make economic predictions about timescales that large is blowing hot air.
- anotheryou 7y agoand ironically ETFs or something seem the only "sane" way to do so
- refurb 7y agoI read a 2002 book that basically said “You’ll need to adjust your expectations of future equities growth. It’ll be more like 3% annually, not 7%”. I was concerned. Since that book was published, equities have gone up on average 6.6%, which includes the 2008 crash.
- adventured 7y agoAnd of course in 2002 very few people were predicting that China would achieve the scale that it has at the pace that it has. A lot of people were predicting the rise of China in the 1990s. Almost nobody was calling for their GDP to 10x so rapidly, going from $1.4t in 2002 to $14t 17 years later. That resulted in an additional $45-$50 trillion in new wealth in just China alone. The knock-on value creation is probably equal to that globally. Most predictions didn't see that coming at that scale and how it could further lift global S&P 500 type companies (and the US stock market along with it).
- refurb 7y agoThis is true! I think my main point was past predictions about long term economic growth have been wrong in the past, so I would weigh new ones very carefully.