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Tesla Q4 2019 Vehicle Production and Deliveries
- abc_lisper 7y agoOnward and upward!
- oblio 7y agoThe main thing I actually care about: How on-track are they with deliveries for Model 3, especially outside of the US? Do you still have to wait 2 years to get a car? Are they delivering the base model? Not the super expensive 60k EUR model, but something closer to the 35k USD.
- sonium 7y agoSingle datapoint, Germany: My collegue waited about 2 weeks when ordering 3 month ago the performance variant.
- paganel 7y agoOut of curiosity, do you happen to know if the service for Tesla cars in Germany is easily accessible? (as in: you can find one in a radius of 80-100 km from your current location).
- MrGilbert 7y agoService? Barely: https://www.tesla.com/de_de/findus?bounds=56.37015568987588%2C30.119167396266903%2C43.28365328828585%2C-5.696262291233097&zoom=6&filters=service https://www.tesla.com/de_de/findus?bounds=56.37015568987588%...
- daxorid 7y agoModel 3 backlog (in the US, anyway) was consumed many months ago. Purchases have been fulfilled primarily from inventory since about June 2019.
- bobobob420 7y agothink for 2018 Elon said himself that they sold 0 base cars as no one wants the base car as it does not even come win autopilot. Don’t quote me on this however, I could be spreading fake news. Hopefully later I can provide a citation for this
- judge2020 7y agoIn my area (Atlanta, GA) it states "estimated delivery: 4-7 weeks" for all customization options.
- michaelt 7y agoIn the US you can get a $40k model from stock right now. Their website claims "$6,300 potential incentives and gas savings" to argue it's really more like a $35k car. Whether you find that convincing is up to you.
- brewdad 7y agoI don't buy the gas savings argument. Sure it lowers the TCO over the future years, but the buyer is paying a premium up front to get those savings. Financial incentives certainly lower the up front cost and are fine in this context IMO.
- AnthonyMouse 7y agoMost people don't buy a $30k+ car for cash. Paying less for fuel can directly offset a higher car payment on a monthly basis. It would be more accurate to represent the fuel savings in net present value, but that isn't too much different when you're talking about something that occurs throughout the next few years rather than decades from now, especially with interest rates as low as they are.
- FireBeyond 7y agoHow much does an electrician cost to install a 240V line and outlet to your garage? That probably eats a bit of the "potential savings" from their "TCO pricing"...
- wilg 7y agoLooks like usually less than $1000 (https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/wall-charger-installation-cost https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/wall-charger-installat...). Plus you don't need 240v, you can charge slowly on 110 which could make sense depending on how much you drive. Plus you can charge elsewhere. But yes the incentive number is silly on their pricing page.
- gerikson 7y agoA Chinese-made Model 3 now costs equv $43K after incentives: https://ww.electrek.co/2020/01/03/teslasmade-in-china-model-3-price-incentives/ https://ww.electrek.co/2020/01/03/teslasmade-in-china-model-...
- sgt101 7y agoI got a model 3 after 3 months in the UK. If you want a performance one and don't care about colour you can get inventory ones quicker than that
- sgt101 7y agoAlso mine is basic. More than £35k though.
- marvin 7y agoSome people I know bought a 40k EUR (45k USD) Model 3 in Norway earlier this year, and received it a few weeks after ordering. Don't know if that anecdote answers part of your question.
- iddqd 7y agoI ordered an inventory car on the 20th of December and Tesla's delivery people hasn't even gotten in touch yet. So yeah, the cars might be available in EU but the delivery process is overloaded.
- guerby 7y agoIn France I ordered my Tesla Model 3 SR+ on the web site August 15, 2019, delivered September 21st, could have been earlier but I asked for a saturday delivery. This was end of a quarter where Tesla decided to deliver some volume in France. Q4 2019 they targeted mostly Netherlands in Europe. Don't know what will be Tesla priority in Q1 2020, a friend of mine ordered in december and has "probable" delivery in february.
- rconti 7y agoThey seem to be alternating production going to Europe vs the US. I have a friend who ordered one in October and received it Dec 20. Another friend bought from stock; walked in and walked out with a car Dec 31. In the Oct/Nov timeframe, truckloads of cars were going north on 101 to be shipped overseas. Then those stopped, and US deliveries were being pushed through. So, you have to wait from 0 up to 2-3 months depending on whether you try to buy when they're doing deliveries in your region or not.
- adrr 7y agoI thought Elon tweeted early last year that Tesla was on track to build 500K cars in 2019 year. 370K is way off from that number.
- neogodless 7y agohttps://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1098080063801585664?lang=en https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1098080063801585664?lang... > Meant to say annualized production rate at end of 2019 probably around 500k, ie 10k cars/week. Deliveries for year still estimated to be about 400k. For deliveries 400k isn't too far from 367,500. But it's not clear (to me) what their annual production rate is. One would hope/imagine that if they get their production rate competitive with the biggest producers of automobiles (anything with 4 wheels), like Toyota, Ford and GM, then the average selling price could come down a bit, too. I just want a decent-looking electric car (preferably hatchback) I can charge at any available charging station with no frills but 250-300 mile range for $25-30k USD. I know batteries aren't there yet!
- foepys 7y ago367k is 9% off the 400k target. 9% is a lot.
- ortusdux 7y agoThe stock market doesn't seem to care.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- DanCarvajal 7y agoNo one can point to $tsla as a functioning example of a rational actors.
- Seanambers 7y ago
- jacknews 7y agodecent, but there must surely be a government grant that can improve those numbers?
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- sundvor 7y agoSadly, don't hold your breath for that in Australia. Although if you are in Australia right now, you might still want to do just that. It's all rather ironic right now.
- Cthulhu_ 7y agoWhy? They're still in the luxury position where demand outweighs production and still need to scale up. That said they are getting government help in the form of tax breaks and stipends for consumers. Some of which are being toned down now (since this year) because a government's money isn't infinite either.
- jacknews 7y agoyeah, irony doesn't work well on the internet my point is that his empire is largely ssupported by government grants etc, even though I do greatly admire his innovative approach and successes.
- xvector 7y agoI love my Model 3. Yes, its "luxury" is not up to the price. Sure, the customer service sucks. Yeah, repairs take a long time. But for me, when I ride in a Tesla, I get a giddy feeling, like the first time I held an iPhone. You just know it's the future. There are so many radical, bold, and correct ideas. Every time I get a software update I'm a kid on Christmas morning. It is just such a fun experience, and for those of you who love to be on the bleeding edge, you'd probably love it too. It's not a car for everyone but I get the same feeling about Tesla as I did about Apple when they came out with the iPhone. 8 years later and no company has managed to come up with a car that seriously competes with the 2012 Model S. Tesla was the first to market and remains the market leader. They've solidified their position in the minds of Americans. They have a grand vision and they're executing on it. This company is headed to the moon.
- oblio 7y ago> But for me, when I ride in a Tesla, I get a giddy feeling, like the first time I held an iPhone. You just know it's the future. There are so many radical, bold, and correct ideas. Every time I get a software update I'm a kid on Christmas morning. It is just such a fun experience, and for those of you who love to be on the bleeding edge, you'd probably love it too. I'd love to agree with you, but the thing is, with a car the "bleeding edge" can literally be a bleeding edge. A phone can do comparatively much less harm. Even ones with high radiation levels and batteries exploding didn't do much harm, all things considered. An out of control car... that's another thing entirely.
- xvector 7y ago> with a car the "bleeding edge" can literally be a bleeding edge. And that's precisely why I used the term "bleeding edge" :) But more with regards to the support/repair experience, and less with regards to safety. I think Teslas on the road today are relatively safe. You have idiots using Autopilot incorrectly, but you have to go through a fair amount of effort to abuse Autopilot. The car handles phenomenally and performs well in crash tests. I haven't really seen cases of "out of control Teslas" - at least, nothing suggesting an anomaly compared to other manufacturers.
- 7y ago
- agumonkey 7y agoStock is on a clear path. Not too long ago Tesla was a risk, let's see how they operate with confidence. I hope their semi will deliver. ps: also battery technology and chemistry. Very important.
- ntsplnkv2 7y agoI just want actually affordable electric cars.
- rynop 7y agoThis is the way my friend. Hold tight.
- agumonkey 7y agoThink larger, climate change and all that
- tardo99 7y agoYou don't think the cost of the car is at least partially a proxy for the amount of energy required to produce the components (primarily the battery)? Some pretty smart people have questioned whether, absent innovations in battery recycling, electric cars are actually green.
- agumonkey 7y agoI don't know much about battery recycling but from the few I've read lithium batteries are above the 90% recycling mark (I've read 99%). Electric cars are far from totally green, but ICE are one order of magnitude more polluting (more parts, more lubricant, more cooling fluid, less lifespan).
- Robotbeat 7y agoYeah, their Semi is probably the next most important thing they need to do to accelerate electrification of transport after the Model 3. With the Model 3, I think they've proven you can make a compelling, relatively affordable electric car (could be less than $20k if they were operating at the same scale as Toyota and wanted a stripped-down, spartan subcompact... I suspect some other carmakers will do this). It could be a really big step change in operating costs for long-haul transport. Even without the "road train" autopilot stuff (which to me is a lot more feasible than what they're trying to do with self driving). If they can deliver at anywhere near their reported costs, it will be a game-changer. (And is more economically compelling than electric commuter cars.) If they really deliver on it, it'd be nice to see them try a compelling, long-distance, high speed inter-city-capable electric bus (as Musk once hinted at but then changed his mind) using the Semi powertrain. Highway speed range could be in excess of 1000miles, or possibly around 300-500 miles if going at a high-speed-rail-like 125mph along a dedicated high speed express busway. No one else is even close to what is needed for a long-haul electric Semi. Tesla's v3 250kW-capable charging infrastructure if ganged together 4 at a time (like they've done with the prototype) would enable plenty fast charging, and they already have much of this deployed. Tesla also has industry-leading battery energy to weight ratio AND drivetrain efficiency, which combine to make long-haul electric trucking feasible (i.e. full-shift driving range with full typical payload without exceeding weight limits). That efficiency reduces the cost of battery and charging as well which makes their upfront manufacture and running cost also lower. (And with a lower range battery, your battery will also typically be lower total mileage life... so although making a short range electric semi is pretty easy, you kind of need to hit ALL these metrics together for long-haul electric trucking to be compelling...)
- ricw 7y agoThis is impressive, but the most impressive part is that Tesla will likely grow another 50% in the coming year given their guidance. Tesla China can now produce 3k cars a week, let’s extrapolate that to the year at a really conservative 2k, which results in about 100k extra cars annually. The same can be expected from the model Y ramp which according to Tesla rumors is already well under way, given that it’s effectively the same process as the model 3. All while not being legally allowed to sell in half of the USA due to outdated car dealership rules, I’d expect this trend to continue given their product roadmap. If they can keep this trend going for 10 years, they’ll be the largest car manufacture in the world. Hah kidding, that would just be impossible to keep up for so long.
- ortusdux 7y agoOn a separate note, I've been wondering how Tesla's relationship with China will affect Starlink. When I first learned about Musk's satellite internet plans, I was optimistic that it could bring unfettered internet access to the billion+ people subject to aggressive internet censorship. Now I doubt Musk will go against a country that is providing over a 1/5th of his car sales.
- iddqd 7y agoStarlink is done by SpaceX, not Tesla.
- xxpor 7y agoWhy do you think China will make that distinction?
- jonplackett 7y agoI doubt they'll see any difference between them though.
- piokoch 7y agoChinese government might not care too much about this kind of corporate details. Elon & Tesla will simply be kicked off China if he tries to mess with communists censorship rules.
- drukenemo 7y agoI wonder if the new factory in Germany will lower the costs for the European market. Currently it's pricey to fully own (not lease) a Tesla in Europe.
- gerikson 7y agoThat assumes that an EU factory will find economies of scale and efficiencies to counter the higher real wages in EU compared to the US and China. And that Tesla won't simply add those efficiencies to their bottom line.
- drukenemo 7y agoThat's all possible, of course. But tax incentives for clean energy and market penetration strategies might account for such price reduction. At least I hope so.
- Klathmon 7y agoAre the wages in Germany really higher than in Fremont, CA (right outside one of the highest cost of living areas in the country)?
- SEJeff 7y agoGermany has some of the strongest labor unions in the western world. I'd not be surprised if the answer is in fact, yes.
- gerikson 7y agoThis article (1st Google hit) suggests they are: https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/98986/the-global-car-manufacturing-wage-gap-what-do-car-factory-workers-earn https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/98986/the-global-car-...
- llsf 7y agoMaybe Tesla would use more robots from Tesla Grohmann Automation in this last Giga Factory to offset the labor cost in Germany...
- hourislate 7y agoThe auto industry is really going to go through some changes in the next decade. It wouldn't surprise me if a few majors like GM, Ford, BMW, Mercedes, Chrysler, Nissan. etc are still around or on their way out. At this point Tesla seems to be doing better every month while other manufacturers just can't mount a serious challenge when it comes to EV's. The more time that passes, the stronger Tesla seems to get.
- jonplackett 7y agoAt least they've seen it coming earlier than Nokia did.
- aguyfromnb 7y agoThis EV transition will likely wipe a few out, for sure. It's hard to imagine how the pension burdened American co's will survive. But Tesla actually lost market share quarter-over-quarter in the US. It's a rough market for autos right now.
- davidgould 7y agoSay what? Where did you see that? Autos overall are down, Tesla is selling record numbers, how did they lose market share?
- aguyfromnb 7y ago>Autos overall are down, Tesla is selling record numbers, how did they lose market share? Tesla's revenues as a percentage of total auto sales decreased last quarter. Simple math.
- davidgould 7y agoPlease cite sources or numbers. As I understand it global auto sales are down and Tesla is up, so simple math would not support your claim. If you have evidence, please present it.
- tyingq 7y agoI'm interested to see what the used market for Model 3's will look like. We're close to hitting the point where a notable number of original owners might want to trade in. Im guessing it will be an odd market, since parts and service might be difficult for secondary owners. And a fair amount of the Model 3 parts have had a less than stellar history for durability.
- brewdad 7y agoWas Tesla offering leases 3-ish years ago? Who gets left holding the bag on these earlier, less well put together models?
- tyingq 7y agoNot sure when it started, but there are 3 year leases offered through Tesla for the model 3. That was what had me curious.
- nullwarp 7y agoI see used Tesla's around but I think the used market is still very small around them. Does Tesla sell the used lease trade ins? What are people even trading in a 3 year old Model 3 for? Another Model 3?
- rconti 7y agoWhy would parts and service be more difficult for 2nd hand owners vs original buyers? The model should be the same. Schedule in the app, take it to a service center. If anything, I'd wonder about warranty vs off-warranty. But don't they have even MORE of an incentive to service off-warranty vehicles which represent a revenue stream vs a cost?
- tyingq 7y agoTesla seems to have a bad reputation for parts availability. I suspect they would prioritize new owners.
- MDWolinski 7y agoIt's a great quarter for Tesla, but how much was driven by the end of the tax rebate in the US at the end of the year? It'll be interesting to see how Q1 2020 compares in terms of deliveries in the US. International growth may become a higher percentage of growth over the next year, if they break it out that way. I'm also wondering if sometime in 2020 Tesla reduces the price of the vehicle to offset the previous tax incentive.
- rconti 7y agoIf I remember correctly, it was down to $1850 for Q4, from a high of $7500 when we bought ours. We've been hearing this "what about when the tax handouts go away" story for awhile, and it hasn't really panned out. Of course, Tesla has taken the edge off of that by strategically lowering prices, but now that it's down to $1850 (well, okay, $0 today) the benefit is marginal at best. I actually had 3 friends ask me, unsolicited, for my referral code, in Q4 alone. 2 of those have been delivered, one hasn't ordered yet. My only other referral was a year ago. If anything, the increasing interest over time surprises me. I really did think they'd have a hard time sustaining sales once the initial backlog cleared out.