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1.) As quantum computing advances, there will be at least one successful 51% attack on a major cryptocurrency. 2.) Tesla/SpaceX StarLink will become a major co
by jb775 7y ago
1.) As quantum computing advances, there will be at least one successful 51% attack on a major cryptocurrency.
2.) Tesla/SpaceX StarLink will become a major competitor in the ISP space. Most transmitted data throughout the world will touch a StarLink satellite.
3.) Financial downturn/semi-recession in mid-late decade primarily caused by excessive corporate stock buybacks artificially inflating stock prices. (Stock buybacks will be driven by executive compensation/bonuses continually being linked to earnings per share)
4.) Drone deliveries will become more common as drone automation tech improves. Airspace will become more regulated to facilitate this.
5.) It will be considered stylish and/or a power move to not own a cell phone.
6.) Solar/wind/hydro electricity generation will become much more commonplace on personal properties. As electricity prices turn negative and not enough cost effective battery capacity to efficiently store it, power plants will be built/redesigned to turn electricity into hydrogen fuel. This will lead to auto companies creating electric/hydrogen cell hybrid cars.
7.) In January 2030, people will comment on this post with their predictions for the following decade, not realizing this post is 10 years old.
- spiralganglion 7y ago5 has been true for years, especially among arts/music communities.
- diveintothe9 7y agoPoint 6 would be such an amazing achievement to hit, even if adoption isn't widespread immediately.
- 0x8BADF00D 7y agoIt may be the decade of commodities, like it was in the 70s. In which case the ROI for asteroid mining becomes acceptable to many.
- VMG 7y ago> 1.) As quantum computing advances, there will be at least one successful 51% attack on a major cryptocurrency. Is there a quantum solution for one of the popular proof-of-work algorithms?
- hnuser123456 7y agohttps://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Quantum_computing_and_Bitcoin https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Quantum_computing_and_Bitcoin
- trulyrandom 7y agoNo, but there is a quantum computer algorithm for classic asymmetric cryptography, which would affect some major proof-of-stake coins if quantum computers ever become practical.
- grifball 7y agobut that wouldn't be a 51% attack, that would just be stealing a wallet
- mandelken 7y agoI would happily take the other side of the bet on EVERY item here! But I do appreciate your boldness in predictions.
- jb775 7y agoCare to elaborate why?
- 0xffff2 7y agoNot GP, but... 1) Practical quantum computing seems to have made little practical progress this decade. This is mostly a gut feeling on my part since I have no professional experience in the field. 2) Starlink will be a major competitor in the rural ISP space. The extremely low maximum density of ground stations means that they can't possibly be a major competitor in a dense urban core or even a dense suburban community. 3) I don't see any particular reason to believe this will happen anymore than that it won't. 4) In the sense that 1 is "more common" than 0, this one is probably true, but I have a suspicion that the economics don't work out nearly as well as we hope. The second half is already true (I work on research that supports making those new regulations) 5) ~~Not much of a prediction. It's already true in some circles.~~ Edit: I should say that it's already stylish in some circles to not own a smartphone. So far everyone I've met in that category still caries some kind of cellular device capable of making emergency calls at the very least. With a near-ubiquitous cellular network available, it's very hard to articulate a reason why you wouldn't use it in an emergency situation. Furthermore, with the rise of the cell network, payphones have fallen out of fashion, meaning that there's even less infrastructure today that there once was for those who wish to eschew cell phones entirely for whatever reason. 6) Again, not my area of professional expertise, but I don't think solar on every roof in the US would actually be enough affect this change. Wind is likely to meet push-back from neighbors, and I don't even know why hydro is listed. The grid will change radically over the coming century, but the next decade is going to see continued incremental change to draw down coal generation and increase storage capacity.
- Dylan16807 7y ago
- hnuser123456 7y agoIt sounds like you're saying a good quantum computer would enable a 51% attack. Instead, you could glean one wallet at a time, but not use it to somehow "over-power" the rest of the network: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Quantum_computing_and_Bitcoin https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Quantum_computing_and_Bitcoin
- whatshisface 7y agoBesides, if a cryptocurrency was vulnerable to quantum computing its value would drop as everyone watched QC get closer and closer to viability. Unless someone advances QC technology in secret the market cap of a coin will never be large enough to pay for cracking it.
- quickthrower2 7y agoBitcoin could change it’s algo to a QC resistant one in advance.
- rsynnott 7y ago> Tesla/SpaceX StarLink will become a major competitor in the ISP space. Most transmitted data throughout the world will touch a StarLink satellite. What makes you think this? It’s hard to see anyone ever using satellite as backhaul except where strictly necessary; fibre will always win there.
- eutropia 7y agoSpeed of light in fibre is 40% slower than in a vacuum. SpaceX is planning on funding expansion by selling lower latency connections to London-NYSE traders.
- rsynnott 7y agoSure; that's a premium product using some of the _extremely_ limited bandwidth offered by such a solution, tho. Hard to see how it competes with the ~infinite bandwidth offered by fibre for normal usage, tho.
- jb775 7y agoI'm not sure the bandwidth will be as limited as you think. If the premium product catches on, further investments will be made to improve the premium product, and those benefits will eventually trickle down to the average user. > Hard to see how it competes with the ~infinite bandwidth offered by fibre for normal usage, tho 1.) Wouldn't be surprised to see ISP's cap bandwidth per individual user and create additional "bandwidth" and "data usage" pricing tiers. Thanks to net neutrality being wiped out, it's now permissible to charge via "fast lanes" and "slow lanes" what makes you think this behavior will stop on the commercial side of things? 2.) You will have secure internet access basically everywhere you go, rather than jumping around different untrustworthy wifi networks. Also, won't need to deal with annoyances of being just outside your wifi network. (e.g. when you're doing yard-work or something) 3.) I could see StarLink encrypting data transmissions out of the box, so you wouldn't need to worry about getting a VPN, or ISP's selling your browsing history, etc
- 7y ago
- snarf21 7y ago3 will start immediately after the election results are in.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]