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> Plant based diets will dominate the world by the end of the decade. Eating meat will become a delicacy, much like eating caviar is today. Much of the world’s

> Plant based diets will dominate the world by the end of the decade. Eating meat will become a delicacy, much like eating caviar is today. Much of the world’s food production will move from farms to laboratories. This needs a huge asterisks at the end of it right? You could argue that plant based diets already dominate the world. Now if he's claiming that "muscular" foods that are produced in a lab will pound for pound outsell animal based meat I would happily take that bet against him.

toyg 7y ago
Same. Beyond the obvious lack of perspective on the developing world (where meat-eating can only grow), entire cultures are completely wrapped up in the rituals around eating meat and will resist any attempt to go back to the bad old days of meat scarcity.
- nine_k 7y ago
  If artificial meat becomes really good, these cultures won't need to change. Real meat, and all the rituals down to the actual killing of it publicly, can still coexist with artificial meat, with an elevated status, like marble beef, or having a sheep solemnly slain for a feast, already are today.
- joering2 7y ago
  Knowing how far we advanced with body parts reporuduction (altho not much in widespred use yet) but 2030 I envision most meat producers will move into printing meat, rather than regular farming. And its not because of growing demand or some personal feelings but because it will be much cheaper to print out part of a cow than raise one.
- puranjay 7y ago
  As an Indian, I just hope fake meat can become good enough to stop the widespread adoption of real meat into Indian diets. India is largely vegetarian (eating meat, even in non-vegetarian households, is like a once-a-week affair) and that has been good for the planet. 1.4B people adopting meat as they become wealthier would be disastrous for the planet
Animats 7y ago
Look at Impossible Burger. Burger King sells them. Try an Impossible Whopper alongside the Beef Whopper. They're making a million pounds of burgers a month, from soy, potatoes, and heme for the meat flavor. Their plant in Oakland is only the size of a supermarket. This isn't an expensive product to make. When the beef industry's lobbyist in Washington first tried one, he called his people and said, "Guys, we have a problem".
- hanniabu 7y ago
  > When the beef industry's lobbyist in Washington first tried one, he called his people and said, "Guys, we have a problem". Source? This just sounds like a story made up for advertisement.
  - Animats 7y ago
    "If farmers and ranchers think we can mock and dismiss these products as a passing fad, we’re kidding ourselves. This is not just another disgusting tofu burger that only a dedicated hippie could convince himself to eat. It’s 95 percent of the way there, and the recipe is likely to only get better. Farmers and ranchers need to take notice and get ready to compete. I’ve tasted it with my own mouth, and this fake meat is ready for prime time."[1] - Eric Bohl, Director of Public Affairs & Advocacy for the Missouri Farm Bureau. [1] https://mofb.org/taste-test-this-fake-meat-is-the-real-deal/ https://mofb.org/taste-test-this-fake-meat-is-the-real-deal/
    - shostack 7y ago
      To be fair, this could also be to generate some fear in the industry for funding work by the lobbyist groups.
- seanalltogether 7y ago
  And if he had made a prediction based on processed meats like burgers, deli meat or sausages being outsold by lab derived products it would have been an interesting prediction, but there is a wide variety of animal meats that people rely on day to day.
tomjen3 7y ago
>This needs a huge asterisks at the end of it right? You could argue that plant based diets already dominate the world. Now if he's claiming that "muscular" foods that are produced in a lab will pound for pound outsell animal based meat I would happily take that bet against him. This seems to be one of those issues that is likely to flip very quickly. I suspect there will be two cut-of points (making no prediction on when it will happen), with the first being when it is cheaper to make then lab-grown meat than the old-style with profit and return on investment in the assets to make the food (ie when you can no longer afford to start new farms, but can keep existing ones in profitable production) and when the price of lab-meat drops below the marginal cow cost (ie when you can only sell meat based cows at a loss). I suspect that it will take much more time to reach the first cutof point than it will take to go from the first cutoff point to the second and when either is reached it will have very quick effects that will prove massively destructive to existing farms and related infrastructure.
- Symmetry 7y ago
  A possibly even more significant milestone would be when the best lab-grown or hybrid lab-grown/plant-based meat tastes better than the best natural meat. This seems like something that should be possible, possibly within a decade given recent trends.
  - 9dev 7y ago
    You overestimate greatly how much people care what they eat.

toyg 7y ago

Same. Beyond the obvious lack of perspective on the developing world (where meat-eating can only grow), entire cultures are completely wrapped up in the rituals around eating meat and will resist any attempt to go back to the bad old days of meat scarcity.

nine_k 7y ago
If artificial meat becomes really good, these cultures won't need to change. Real meat, and all the rituals down to the actual killing of it publicly, can still coexist with artificial meat, with an elevated status, like marble beef, or having a sheep solemnly slain for a feast, already are today.
joering2 7y ago
Knowing how far we advanced with body parts reporuduction (altho not much in widespred use yet) but 2030 I envision most meat producers will move into printing meat, rather than regular farming. And its not because of growing demand or some personal feelings but because it will be much cheaper to print out part of a cow than raise one.
puranjay 7y ago
As an Indian, I just hope fake meat can become good enough to stop the widespread adoption of real meat into Indian diets. India is largely vegetarian (eating meat, even in non-vegetarian households, is like a once-a-week affair) and that has been good for the planet. 1.4B people adopting meat as they become wealthier would be disastrous for the planet

Animats 7y ago

Look at Impossible Burger. Burger King sells them. Try an Impossible Whopper alongside the Beef Whopper. They're making a million pounds of burgers a month, from soy, potatoes, and heme for the meat flavor. Their plant in Oakland is only the size of a supermarket. This isn't an expensive product to make. When the beef industry's lobbyist in Washington first tried one, he called his people and said, "Guys, we have a problem".

hanniabu 7y ago
> When the beef industry's lobbyist in Washington first tried one, he called his people and said, "Guys, we have a problem". Source? This just sounds like a story made up for advertisement.
- Animats 7y ago
  "If farmers and ranchers think we can mock and dismiss these products as a passing fad, we’re kidding ourselves. This is not just another disgusting tofu burger that only a dedicated hippie could convince himself to eat. It’s 95 percent of the way there, and the recipe is likely to only get better. Farmers and ranchers need to take notice and get ready to compete. I’ve tasted it with my own mouth, and this fake meat is ready for prime time."[1] - Eric Bohl, Director of Public Affairs & Advocacy for the Missouri Farm Bureau. [1] https://mofb.org/taste-test-this-fake-meat-is-the-real-deal/ https://mofb.org/taste-test-this-fake-meat-is-the-real-deal/
  - shostack 7y ago
    To be fair, this could also be to generate some fear in the industry for funding work by the lobbyist groups.
seanalltogether 7y ago
And if he had made a prediction based on processed meats like burgers, deli meat or sausages being outsold by lab derived products it would have been an interesting prediction, but there is a wide variety of animal meats that people rely on day to day.

tomjen3 7y ago

>This needs a huge asterisks at the end of it right? You could argue that plant based diets already dominate the world. Now if he's claiming that "muscular" foods that are produced in a lab will pound for pound outsell animal based meat I would happily take that bet against him. This seems to be one of those issues that is likely to flip very quickly. I suspect there will be two cut-of points (making no prediction on when it will happen), with the first being when it is cheaper to make then lab-grown meat than the old-style with profit and return on investment in the assets to make the food (ie when you can no longer afford to start new farms, but can keep existing ones in profitable production) and when the price of lab-meat drops below the marginal cow cost (ie when you can only sell meat based cows at a loss). I suspect that it will take much more time to reach the first cutof point than it will take to go from the first cutoff point to the second and when either is reached it will have very quick effects that will prove massively destructive to existing farms and related infrastructure.

Symmetry 7y ago
A possibly even more significant milestone would be when the best lab-grown or hybrid lab-grown/plant-based meat tastes better than the best natural meat. This seems like something that should be possible, possibly within a decade given recent trends.
- 9dev 7y ago
  You overestimate greatly how much people care what they eat.