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>China will fall >Saudi will have a violent revolution Very very unfortunately, this sounds more like wishful thinking than a reasonable prediction. The ways

>China will fall >Saudi will have a violent revolution Very very unfortunately, this sounds more like wishful thinking than a reasonable prediction. The ways in which modern states can maintain power and suppress their people is overwhelming. China can and has built perhaps the most oppressive totalitarian state ever to have existed. Saudi is diversifying its absurd wealth to resist downturns in oil, and the "first world" is still hapelly grovelling and kissing the rings of that disgusting despot, selling them weapons and propping them up diplomatically. All in all, I don't have my hopes up. It's all rather depressing.

jsmonkey 7y ago
Yep, and the thing is that most Chinese don't even mind the high level of control for the time being. I don't see any significant large scale instability as long as the material quality of life continues to improve for the average Chinese.
- magduf 7y ago
  This is probably pretty normal historically. People start rebelling not just because of restrictions on freedom, but usually because their quality of life sucks. See what's happening in Hong Kong: they don't like the increasing Chinese oppression, sure, but they also have some serious quality-of-life complaints too, namely with housing prices. When people are fat and comfortable, they tend not to rock the boat too much for vague ideals.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
DoreenMichele 7y ago
>China will fall >Saudi will have a violent revolution Very very unfortunately, this sounds more like wishful thinking than a reasonable prediction. The truly troublesome part is that predictions about social phenomenon can be self-fulfilling prophesy. If you basically want to see a bloody revolution instead of a better solution, that actively increases the odds of it happening.
- golergka 7y ago
  The best the world can hope for Saudi Arabia is the status quo. As authoritarian and barbaric as they are, the problem is, Saudi's internal opposition isn't some liberal freedom lovers – it's much more radical religious fanatics that would turn the country in (in essence) ISIS, but with oil and wealth. The reason modern western leaders support house of Saud isn't that they're the good guys. They're just the best of what all realistic possibilities in the region, unfortunately.
  - lotsofpulp 7y ago
    >The reason modern western leaders support house of Saud isn't that they're the good guys. They're just the best of what all realistic possibilities in the region, unfortunately. I doubt it. Saud family were interested in fighting the Ottomans, as were the British in WW1, and their interests aligned then. And during WW2, once it was found to provide access to oil, it only made sense for the west to make sure a stable regime was established. The US/Brits support the Sauds in whatever they want to do, and the Sauds provide oil and purchase weapons. Keeps the region nice and unstable for future weapons orders and to prevent a situation like Norway where the oil wealth is distributed to everyone and no longer able to be controlled by a handful of people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Saud#Origins_and_early_history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Saud#Origins_and_earl... For further proof, the more modern socially liberal Iran was destabilized in favor of a fundamentalist leader by the US for their refusal to play ball: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruhollah_Khomeini#Khomeini's_contact_with_the_US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruhollah_Khomeini#Khomeini's_c... It's just business, it's easier to deal with a small country's king than a democracy. This is a good book about the circumstances that result in the modern situation: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/64594.A_History_of_the_Modern_Middle_East https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/64594.A_History_of_the_M...
    - chefkoch 7y ago
      > prevent a situation like Norway where the oil wealth is distributed to everyone and no longer able to be controlled by a handful of people. Isn't the wealth distributed to the saudis to keep them happy and inline?
brobinson 7y ago
The PRC's working population peaks somewhere between right now and the next 5 years. By 2050, over 1/3 of their population is over 65 years old. They've been under replenishment birth rates for a long time. Their population pyramid is really, truly scary. Their highly leveraged economy will not survive at "6%" growth over the next decade. It is not clear that they will escape the Middle Income Trap [1]. They are struggling with zombie companies and transitioning from manufacturing to a services-based economy. Their manufacturing is also being slowly eaten away by countries like Vietnam. As the PRC maintains its legitimacy through the economic growth that has happened under its existence, a recession could trigger political upheaval or force the CCP to distract the populace, e.g. they might try to annex the ROC (Taiwan and its other holdings) by force. A military conflict in which a large number of one child families lose their sole child would have disastrous ramifications as far as government stability, too. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap (No opinion on Saudi as I only follow the economy/demographics of the PRC and Eurozone countries)
- nopinsight 7y ago
  Given their focus on technology and modernization and massive investment in R&D and STEM education, it is likely that China will grow further still. China’s R&D investment is now at the top of the world about on par with the US. There are also a very high number of capable engineers in China as suggested by PISA results. A key difference with middle income countries that only earn export income as manufacturing base is that there are quite a few Chinese companies that possess its own technology and brands. DJI, Oppo, Xiaomi are some examples. Many of these brands are not well known in the US but have become increasingly competitive with global brands, at least in some respect, in Asia and perhaps elsewhere. It might make sense to compare them to Korean brands a while back, with an additional advantage of massive domestic market. Their forward-looking focus on major industries of tomorrow like AI, EV, and biotech does not hurt either. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_research_and_development_spending https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_research_... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21868570 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21868570 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21692002 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21692002 Since there are many areas in China that could be further developed, the service sector will also likely grow. My point is that the US ought not get complacent and believe in wishful thinking that competition from China will simply go away in time.

jsmonkey 7y ago

Yep, and the thing is that most Chinese don't even mind the high level of control for the time being. I don't see any significant large scale instability as long as the material quality of life continues to improve for the average Chinese.

magduf 7y ago
This is probably pretty normal historically. People start rebelling not just because of restrictions on freedom, but usually because their quality of life sucks. See what's happening in Hong Kong: they don't like the increasing Chinese oppression, sure, but they also have some serious quality-of-life complaints too, namely with housing prices. When people are fat and comfortable, they tend not to rock the boat too much for vague ideals.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

DoreenMichele 7y ago

>China will fall >Saudi will have a violent revolution Very very unfortunately, this sounds more like wishful thinking than a reasonable prediction. The truly troublesome part is that predictions about social phenomenon can be self-fulfilling prophesy. If you basically want to see a bloody revolution instead of a better solution, that actively increases the odds of it happening.

golergka 7y ago
The best the world can hope for Saudi Arabia is the status quo. As authoritarian and barbaric as they are, the problem is, Saudi's internal opposition isn't some liberal freedom lovers – it's much more radical religious fanatics that would turn the country in (in essence) ISIS, but with oil and wealth. The reason modern western leaders support house of Saud isn't that they're the good guys. They're just the best of what all realistic possibilities in the region, unfortunately.
- lotsofpulp 7y ago
  >The reason modern western leaders support house of Saud isn't that they're the good guys. They're just the best of what all realistic possibilities in the region, unfortunately. I doubt it. Saud family were interested in fighting the Ottomans, as were the British in WW1, and their interests aligned then. And during WW2, once it was found to provide access to oil, it only made sense for the west to make sure a stable regime was established. The US/Brits support the Sauds in whatever they want to do, and the Sauds provide oil and purchase weapons. Keeps the region nice and unstable for future weapons orders and to prevent a situation like Norway where the oil wealth is distributed to everyone and no longer able to be controlled by a handful of people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Saud#Origins_and_early_history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Saud#Origins_and_earl... For further proof, the more modern socially liberal Iran was destabilized in favor of a fundamentalist leader by the US for their refusal to play ball: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruhollah_Khomeini#Khomeini's_contact_with_the_US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruhollah_Khomeini#Khomeini's_c... It's just business, it's easier to deal with a small country's king than a democracy. This is a good book about the circumstances that result in the modern situation: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/64594.A_History_of_the_Modern_Middle_East https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/64594.A_History_of_the_M...
  - chefkoch 7y ago
    > prevent a situation like Norway where the oil wealth is distributed to everyone and no longer able to be controlled by a handful of people. Isn't the wealth distributed to the saudis to keep them happy and inline?

brobinson 7y ago

The PRC's working population peaks somewhere between right now and the next 5 years. By 2050, over 1/3 of their population is over 65 years old. They've been under replenishment birth rates for a long time. Their population pyramid is really, truly scary. Their highly leveraged economy will not survive at "6%" growth over the next decade. It is not clear that they will escape the Middle Income Trap [1]. They are struggling with zombie companies and transitioning from manufacturing to a services-based economy. Their manufacturing is also being slowly eaten away by countries like Vietnam. As the PRC maintains its legitimacy through the economic growth that has happened under its existence, a recession could trigger political upheaval or force the CCP to distract the populace, e.g. they might try to annex the ROC (Taiwan and its other holdings) by force. A military conflict in which a large number of one child families lose their sole child would have disastrous ramifications as far as government stability, too. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap (No opinion on Saudi as I only follow the economy/demographics of the PRC and Eurozone countries)

nopinsight 7y ago
Given their focus on technology and modernization and massive investment in R&D and STEM education, it is likely that China will grow further still. China’s R&D investment is now at the top of the world about on par with the US. There are also a very high number of capable engineers in China as suggested by PISA results. A key difference with middle income countries that only earn export income as manufacturing base is that there are quite a few Chinese companies that possess its own technology and brands. DJI, Oppo, Xiaomi are some examples. Many of these brands are not well known in the US but have become increasingly competitive with global brands, at least in some respect, in Asia and perhaps elsewhere. It might make sense to compare them to Korean brands a while back, with an additional advantage of massive domestic market. Their forward-looking focus on major industries of tomorrow like AI, EV, and biotech does not hurt either. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_research_and_development_spending https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_research_... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21868570 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21868570 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21692002 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21692002 Since there are many areas in China that could be further developed, the service sector will also likely grow. My point is that the US ought not get complacent and believe in wishful thinking that competition from China will simply go away in time.