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> There was, however, no conspiracy or "cabal". These were simply people who were convinced they were on the right track. No one thought the weapons of mass de

> There was, however, no conspiracy or "cabal". These were simply people who were convinced they were on the right track. No one thought the weapons of mass destruction were fake and lied and said they were real. The conspiracy was "These were simply people who were convinced they were on the right track." so did not allow competing theories. Exactly the same with the VW emissions issue. This is exactly how conspiracies and cabals work. They are emergent behaviour.

dnautics 7y ago
The funny thing about that conspiracy is that the WMD were real. Hussein had them, and and its true that he didn't give them up, and he refused access. Here's the but: they were found by the US, under seal exactly in the place of record according to the UN. It's pretty clear that Hussein wasn't actively developing it anymore. http://www.nbcnews.com/id/25546334 http://www.nbcnews.com/id/25546334
- SiempreViernes 7y ago
  Um, the article talks about the removal of an unrefined ingredient for a weapon, not exactly finished weapons.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - dnautics 7y ago
    Yes, the pre invasion claim made to the UN was that Iraq was in violation of its obligation to allow inspectors in to monitor its WMD program. I'm not justifying the actions of the administration or even the legal basis for it, but per my understanding, the claims were not untrue, notwithstanding how it was sold to the us public (especially as filtered by the complicit media)
- temac 7y ago
  Your source for the belief tha Iraq had WMD is an article explaining they had yellowcake? Even a youtuber made some and processed it (and this was completely legal)
  - dnautics 7y ago
    Yes? That was, after all, concretely the claim made by the administration before the invasion (recall the joke by Dave Chappelle about yellow cake) There's also plenty of evidence that Iraq had (known, small) stockpiles of chemical weapons, too (last I checked those were classed as WMD), which are widely accepted to be a likely cause of gulf war syndrome and a contributing factor to congenital disease in some parts of iraq. Mind you: I'm not claiming that it's ethical to invade a country on shoddy pretenses.
    - temac 7y ago
      If you are thinking about the fear of contraband imports of yellowcake, well none of that has ever been found and its highly unlikely to have existed. The removed yellowcake had been stockpiled prior to the first Gulf War, and was declared to the International Atomic Energy Agency and under IAEA safeguards. Of course at one old point Iraq had WMD programs. But you were completely misrepresenting the situation by stating for the later period that "The funny thing about that conspiracy is that the WMD were real. Hussein had them, and and its true that he didn't give them up". Even the very article you linked stated clearly: "There was no evidence of any yellowcake dating from after 1991, the official said." As for the small amount of chemical weapons or precursors, they also have not been interpreted afterwhile has having any significance regarding the willingness to comply.
- blaser-waffle 7y ago
  Saddam had chemical weapons and actively used them on the Iranians during the Iran-Iraq War, and later against the Kurds. Saddam also received considerable material support from the US during the Iran-Iraq War -- those pictures of Donald Rumsfeld shaking Saddam's hand aren't fake. Lots of jokes about "we knew Saddam had WMDs cuz we gave em to him!" were, to a degree, credible on paper. Saddam had long since stopped working on them, but made a point to look like he was. This allowed him to drum up support by posturing like he was standing up to the US, and also to look threatening to the Iranians (plus the Kurds + Shias).
DarkmSparks 7y ago
Really interesting observation, fascinating to see it described as "emergent behaviour". WMDs were known to be fake from the start though, they were just stealing Iraqi oil, and David Kelly lost his life trying to expose it - could you suggest a better example? Article is great to, came to post something along the lines of "no it wasn't a conspiracy", but the article summerises exactly what happened under the picture - "Amyloid plaques have long been the suspected cause of cognitive decline experienced by Alzheimer’s patients. Drug companies have spent billions of dollars creating amyloid-targeting drugs, yet they’ve all failed" ->They went "all in" on bad science.
- amw 7y ago
  > They went "all in" on bad science. They went "all in" on science, that happens with hindsight to maybe not have been an accurate model for reality. Nobody can know that a particular explanation is bad without actually doing the science first, no matter what post facto explanations we can come up with after we realize we've been chasing a unicorn.
  - DarkmSparks 7y ago
    "bad science" because it was proven wrong after spending hundreds of billions of dollars. no particular judgement, but saying "mistakes were made" would be something of an understatement.
- efa 7y ago
  I'm sure what were fake. The US GAVE Saddam WMDs during the war with Iran (maybe you don't consider these WMDs). No one argues that he didn't use mustard gas on the Kurds.
  - DarkmSparks 7y ago
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_Dossier https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_Dossier
JackFr 7y ago
> This is exactly how conspiracies and cabals work. They are emergent behaviour. No, conspiracies and cabal are by their very nature intentional. Groupthink https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink is a much better term for describing an emergent dysfunctional decision process brought on through social dynamics.
- aaron695 7y ago
  No, definitely not Groupthink. It's open behaviour. It's really hard to find non-fiction examples of cabals, but when applied to real life I stick with they are almost always emergent behaviour. I would have thought the Phoebus cartel is an example of a cabal, but it seems Google doesn't agree. But it's an example of progress kept back from emergent behaviour. There's a reason there's two memes attached to Phoebus cartel, 1. They stopped long lasting light bulbs, 2. Actually long lasting light bulbs burn to much electricity. The emergent behaviour from 2. caused 1. which made them more money. This is not Groupthink.
greglindahl 7y ago
I thought we were talking about science, not spycraft or non-independent emissions testing? An independent science lab causd the VW scandal by publishing independent measures of emissions. That's one way the process of science corrects itself.
- aaron695 7y ago
  What veterinarians know that physicians don't - https://www.ted.com/talks/barbara_natterson_horowitz_what_veterinarians_know_that_physicians_don_t https://www.ted.com/talks/barbara_natterson_horowitz_what_ve... Not totally sold on the meme, but looking at crossovers between disciplines is a thing. Although I'd argue it's all under anthropology in this case.

dnautics 7y ago

The funny thing about that conspiracy is that the WMD were real. Hussein had them, and and its true that he didn't give them up, and he refused access. Here's the but: they were found by the US, under seal exactly in the place of record according to the UN. It's pretty clear that Hussein wasn't actively developing it anymore. http://www.nbcnews.com/id/25546334 http://www.nbcnews.com/id/25546334

SiempreViernes 7y ago
Um, the article talks about the removal of an unrefined ingredient for a weapon, not exactly finished weapons.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- dnautics 7y ago
  Yes, the pre invasion claim made to the UN was that Iraq was in violation of its obligation to allow inspectors in to monitor its WMD program. I'm not justifying the actions of the administration or even the legal basis for it, but per my understanding, the claims were not untrue, notwithstanding how it was sold to the us public (especially as filtered by the complicit media)
temac 7y ago
Your source for the belief tha Iraq had WMD is an article explaining they had yellowcake? Even a youtuber made some and processed it (and this was completely legal)
- dnautics 7y ago
  Yes? That was, after all, concretely the claim made by the administration before the invasion (recall the joke by Dave Chappelle about yellow cake) There's also plenty of evidence that Iraq had (known, small) stockpiles of chemical weapons, too (last I checked those were classed as WMD), which are widely accepted to be a likely cause of gulf war syndrome and a contributing factor to congenital disease in some parts of iraq. Mind you: I'm not claiming that it's ethical to invade a country on shoddy pretenses.
  - temac 7y ago
    If you are thinking about the fear of contraband imports of yellowcake, well none of that has ever been found and its highly unlikely to have existed. The removed yellowcake had been stockpiled prior to the first Gulf War, and was declared to the International Atomic Energy Agency and under IAEA safeguards. Of course at one old point Iraq had WMD programs. But you were completely misrepresenting the situation by stating for the later period that "The funny thing about that conspiracy is that the WMD were real. Hussein had them, and and its true that he didn't give them up". Even the very article you linked stated clearly: "There was no evidence of any yellowcake dating from after 1991, the official said." As for the small amount of chemical weapons or precursors, they also have not been interpreted afterwhile has having any significance regarding the willingness to comply.
blaser-waffle 7y ago
Saddam had chemical weapons and actively used them on the Iranians during the Iran-Iraq War, and later against the Kurds. Saddam also received considerable material support from the US during the Iran-Iraq War -- those pictures of Donald Rumsfeld shaking Saddam's hand aren't fake. Lots of jokes about "we knew Saddam had WMDs cuz we gave em to him!" were, to a degree, credible on paper. Saddam had long since stopped working on them, but made a point to look like he was. This allowed him to drum up support by posturing like he was standing up to the US, and also to look threatening to the Iranians (plus the Kurds + Shias).

DarkmSparks 7y ago

Really interesting observation, fascinating to see it described as "emergent behaviour". WMDs were known to be fake from the start though, they were just stealing Iraqi oil, and David Kelly lost his life trying to expose it - could you suggest a better example? Article is great to, came to post something along the lines of "no it wasn't a conspiracy", but the article summerises exactly what happened under the picture - "Amyloid plaques have long been the suspected cause of cognitive decline experienced by Alzheimer’s patients. Drug companies have spent billions of dollars creating amyloid-targeting drugs, yet they’ve all failed" ->They went "all in" on bad science.

amw 7y ago
> They went "all in" on bad science. They went "all in" on science, that happens with hindsight to maybe not have been an accurate model for reality. Nobody can know that a particular explanation is bad without actually doing the science first, no matter what post facto explanations we can come up with after we realize we've been chasing a unicorn.
- DarkmSparks 7y ago
  "bad science" because it was proven wrong after spending hundreds of billions of dollars. no particular judgement, but saying "mistakes were made" would be something of an understatement.
efa 7y ago
I'm sure what were fake. The US GAVE Saddam WMDs during the war with Iran (maybe you don't consider these WMDs). No one argues that he didn't use mustard gas on the Kurds.
- DarkmSparks 7y ago
  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_Dossier https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_Dossier

JackFr 7y ago

> This is exactly how conspiracies and cabals work. They are emergent behaviour. No, conspiracies and cabal are by their very nature intentional. Groupthink https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink is a much better term for describing an emergent dysfunctional decision process brought on through social dynamics.

aaron695 7y ago
No, definitely not Groupthink. It's open behaviour. It's really hard to find non-fiction examples of cabals, but when applied to real life I stick with they are almost always emergent behaviour. I would have thought the Phoebus cartel is an example of a cabal, but it seems Google doesn't agree. But it's an example of progress kept back from emergent behaviour. There's a reason there's two memes attached to Phoebus cartel, 1. They stopped long lasting light bulbs, 2. Actually long lasting light bulbs burn to much electricity. The emergent behaviour from 2. caused 1. which made them more money. This is not Groupthink.

greglindahl 7y ago

I thought we were talking about science, not spycraft or non-independent emissions testing? An independent science lab causd the VW scandal by publishing independent measures of emissions. That's one way the process of science corrects itself.

aaron695 7y ago
What veterinarians know that physicians don't - https://www.ted.com/talks/barbara_natterson_horowitz_what_veterinarians_know_that_physicians_don_t https://www.ted.com/talks/barbara_natterson_horowitz_what_ve... Not totally sold on the meme, but looking at crossovers between disciplines is a thing. Although I'd argue it's all under anthropology in this case.