4 ms·

I think most hype over EVs is a direct result of the Tesla stock price and people upset they missed their chance to buy it when it was $20. Probably nothing to

I think most hype over EVs is a direct result of the Tesla stock price and people upset they missed their chance to buy it when it was $20. Probably nothing to do with Rivian or their tech - they just want "the next Tesla".

CharlesW 7y ago
By "over EVs", did you mean "over EV companies other than Tesla"? Because I'd strongly disagree that EVs are over-hyped.
- xenospn 7y ago
  Yes.
perardi 7y ago
(Mild conflict of interest: I'm originally from Central Illinois, Rivian took over the old Mitsubishi plant where my dad worked, so I'm keen to see manufacturing stay around there.) I think the future earnings potential is the "platform". Which sounds like marketing hype, but I'm not so sure. The US is, at least under the current administration, not going to push for EVs, but the rest of the world is trending in that direction, especially after it was revealed that basically everyone was cheating on diesel emissions. Rivian's pitch is that they have a modular flexible platform that's tuned for boring-but-essential utility vehicles. Tesla sells consumer sex, Rivian is selling white van man utility ahead of big, big pressures to lower fleet CO2 emissions. Seems like a reasonable business model to me.
- Gibbon1 7y ago
  It's not just lowering fleet emissions, it's also while consumers are stupidly fixated on price commercial looks at TCO. EV's TCO is lower. There is also something I learned about golf carts. For consumers being able to gas up a car is a convenience. For fleet operators having to deal with fuel is a pain in the ass they do not want.
  - greglindahl 7y ago
    Most EV owners with at-home or at-work charging appreciate the convenience of not having to go to "gas stations" other than during long trips. This is an issue that the general public has yet to fully think out... every EV thread on HN has a few folks talking about how it's impossible to take a long trip in an EV because they'd have to spend time charging during it. And these same folks are usually not considering how much time they save during the rest of the year. Good thing EV sales are low enough that everyone doesn't need to be convinced of this immediately.
    - ctdonath 7y ago
      Finally someone else notices. Major benefit is the car is "topped off" every morning, so charging time is practically zero most of the time.
Zanni 7y ago
No, the hype is over the vehicles themselves. EVs are the future. And, as William Gibson famously said, "The future is already here, it's just unevenly distributed." Once you experience the quiet, convenience and power of an EV, it's hard to go back to an ICE car. We're already past the early-adopter phase. Improvements in price, range and charging infrastructure (already happening) will capture everyone else.
- syshum 7y ago
  >>We're already past the early-adopter phase I disagree with that, Longevity of these platforms have yet to be worked out, we are coming up on the time when the first Model S units are going to start having failing batteries. How much is that going to cost? The Used Car market is what supports New Car sales, Tesla and other EV's are riding on the ability of people to sell off the ICE cars and buy into EV Once EV has a large enough market share, and that is coming soon, EV resell value will become even more important, and if the cars need a repair that costs the equivalent of a new engine at year 8-10 the resell value of them will PLUMMET
  - greglindahl 7y ago
    The Model S has been out long enough that there's plenty of data about used car prices and battery replacements.
    - syshum 7y ago
      The first Model S rolled of the line on June 22, 2012, that is about 7.5 years You can not believe that is "been out long enough" to factor in Resale values and longevity? The Average Scrap age for a car in the US in 2014 is about 15 years, and the Average age of all light vehicles in operation on the reads as of 2014 was 11.4 years old and was expected to raise to 12 years by 2018 but I could not find data to confirm that This means the VAST majority of cars in operation are aging used cars that are older than even the oldest Tesla on the road today. Get back to me when the Model S reaches the decade mark and see if the Cost the the batteries exceed the value of the Car, and the real test will be if the low end Model 3 can maintain a 15+ year life span on the road because if the EV scrap date is a full 5+ years quicker than a ICE car that is going to be a problem not only for sales but also all of the environmental calculations that make it "green" ICE Manufacturers are targeting a 15year life span for cars, if EV can not do that economically we are going to have problems
unlinked_dll 7y ago
There won’t be a next Tesla and (smart) investors aren’t looking for one. Like chip startups the exit strategy doesn’t depend on competing with the big guys, but being acquired by them.
api 7y ago
Have you driven one? Energy is 1/4 the price or less and efficiency is better even if your electricity comes from fossil fuels because small heat engines suck. Torque curve is better. Little maintenance, no oil changes, quiet, better handling. EVs are objectively superior in every single way except recharge speed amd range, and the gap has closed for the latter and is closing for the former. ICE is dead except for long haul and heavy driving where you don't often park the vehicle. I have an older Leaf and it was an incredible deal for a commuter car. I don't understand why anyone gets anything else. The fuel cost savings and lack of maintenance alone are worth it, but it also drives and accelerates better than a smaller gas commuter car.
- xenospn 7y ago
  Yes. I was referring to the 'hype over EV companies'. Bad phrasing on my part.
- Marsymars 7y ago
  > I don't understand why anyone gets anything else. Presumably different reasons for different people, but my dealbreakers are a) I rent and park on the street in a suburb where there's no charging infrastructure and b) every time I run the numbers, they're still too expensive. (e.g. a used Leaf runs about double what my used ICE was, and it's too much of a difference for savings on fuel and oil changes to make up.) edit: The range is also a real concern. I get several dozen days of snowboarding in per winter and frequently go hiking, backpacking and climbing in the summer. Ski hill parking lots, hostel parking lots, and trail heads don't have charging infrastructure. I'd need 400km of range at -20C as a minimum viable EV.

CharlesW 7y ago

By "over EVs", did you mean "over EV companies other than Tesla"? Because I'd strongly disagree that EVs are over-hyped.

xenospn 7y ago
Yes.

perardi 7y ago

(Mild conflict of interest: I'm originally from Central Illinois, Rivian took over the old Mitsubishi plant where my dad worked, so I'm keen to see manufacturing stay around there.) I think the future earnings potential is the "platform". Which sounds like marketing hype, but I'm not so sure. The US is, at least under the current administration, not going to push for EVs, but the rest of the world is trending in that direction, especially after it was revealed that basically everyone was cheating on diesel emissions. Rivian's pitch is that they have a modular flexible platform that's tuned for boring-but-essential utility vehicles. Tesla sells consumer sex, Rivian is selling white van man utility ahead of big, big pressures to lower fleet CO2 emissions. Seems like a reasonable business model to me.

Gibbon1 7y ago
It's not just lowering fleet emissions, it's also while consumers are stupidly fixated on price commercial looks at TCO. EV's TCO is lower. There is also something I learned about golf carts. For consumers being able to gas up a car is a convenience. For fleet operators having to deal with fuel is a pain in the ass they do not want.
- greglindahl 7y ago
  Most EV owners with at-home or at-work charging appreciate the convenience of not having to go to "gas stations" other than during long trips. This is an issue that the general public has yet to fully think out... every EV thread on HN has a few folks talking about how it's impossible to take a long trip in an EV because they'd have to spend time charging during it. And these same folks are usually not considering how much time they save during the rest of the year. Good thing EV sales are low enough that everyone doesn't need to be convinced of this immediately.
  - ctdonath 7y ago
    Finally someone else notices. Major benefit is the car is "topped off" every morning, so charging time is practically zero most of the time.

Zanni 7y ago

No, the hype is over the vehicles themselves. EVs are the future. And, as William Gibson famously said, "The future is already here, it's just unevenly distributed." Once you experience the quiet, convenience and power of an EV, it's hard to go back to an ICE car. We're already past the early-adopter phase. Improvements in price, range and charging infrastructure (already happening) will capture everyone else.

syshum 7y ago
>>We're already past the early-adopter phase I disagree with that, Longevity of these platforms have yet to be worked out, we are coming up on the time when the first Model S units are going to start having failing batteries. How much is that going to cost? The Used Car market is what supports New Car sales, Tesla and other EV's are riding on the ability of people to sell off the ICE cars and buy into EV Once EV has a large enough market share, and that is coming soon, EV resell value will become even more important, and if the cars need a repair that costs the equivalent of a new engine at year 8-10 the resell value of them will PLUMMET
- greglindahl 7y ago
  The Model S has been out long enough that there's plenty of data about used car prices and battery replacements.
  - syshum 7y ago
    The first Model S rolled of the line on June 22, 2012, that is about 7.5 years You can not believe that is "been out long enough" to factor in Resale values and longevity? The Average Scrap age for a car in the US in 2014 is about 15 years, and the Average age of all light vehicles in operation on the reads as of 2014 was 11.4 years old and was expected to raise to 12 years by 2018 but I could not find data to confirm that This means the VAST majority of cars in operation are aging used cars that are older than even the oldest Tesla on the road today. Get back to me when the Model S reaches the decade mark and see if the Cost the the batteries exceed the value of the Car, and the real test will be if the low end Model 3 can maintain a 15+ year life span on the road because if the EV scrap date is a full 5+ years quicker than a ICE car that is going to be a problem not only for sales but also all of the environmental calculations that make it "green" ICE Manufacturers are targeting a 15year life span for cars, if EV can not do that economically we are going to have problems

unlinked_dll 7y ago

There won’t be a next Tesla and (smart) investors aren’t looking for one. Like chip startups the exit strategy doesn’t depend on competing with the big guys, but being acquired by them.

api 7y ago

Have you driven one? Energy is 1/4 the price or less and efficiency is better even if your electricity comes from fossil fuels because small heat engines suck. Torque curve is better. Little maintenance, no oil changes, quiet, better handling. EVs are objectively superior in every single way except recharge speed amd range, and the gap has closed for the latter and is closing for the former. ICE is dead except for long haul and heavy driving where you don't often park the vehicle. I have an older Leaf and it was an incredible deal for a commuter car. I don't understand why anyone gets anything else. The fuel cost savings and lack of maintenance alone are worth it, but it also drives and accelerates better than a smaller gas commuter car.

xenospn 7y ago
Yes. I was referring to the 'hype over EV companies'. Bad phrasing on my part.
Marsymars 7y ago
> I don't understand why anyone gets anything else. Presumably different reasons for different people, but my dealbreakers are a) I rent and park on the street in a suburb where there's no charging infrastructure and b) every time I run the numbers, they're still too expensive. (e.g. a used Leaf runs about double what my used ICE was, and it's too much of a difference for savings on fuel and oil changes to make up.) edit: The range is also a real concern. I get several dozen days of snowboarding in per winter and frequently go hiking, backpacking and climbing in the summer. Ski hill parking lots, hostel parking lots, and trail heads don't have charging infrastructure. I'd need 400km of range at -20C as a minimum viable EV.