10 ms·

Netflix was the top stock of the decade

118 points by prostoalex 7y ago

tus88 7y ago
Netflix started streaming in 2010. Apples fall down.
duxup 7y ago
I remember for years I kept seeing predictions of Netflix's demise about how someone established coming along and doing it better or every content providers just not selling and/or creating their own service...and so on. Netflix is still around and at least for me it is one of a couple services I regularly use / keep and I'm actually kinda annoyed when another service comes along. I just watch what the handful of services I use have...I don't want to chase content around.
- jliptzin 7y ago
  Almost certainly the work of market manipulators. The SEC is asleep at the wheel. You should not read any articles about a company without considering that market manipulators are probably behind it. Watch Jim Cramer brag about how he used to manipulate the market: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMShFx5rThI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMShFx5rThI
  - duxup 7y ago
    >You should not read any articles about a company without considering that market manipulators are probably behind it. I feel like that is a bit of a big assumption. The predictions I noted we're not unreasonable and I've no information that indicates any of it was for the reason you describe.
- everdev 7y ago
  > I'm actually kinda annoyed when another service comes along Same. I don't like too much cable TV content, but it is nice that it's all bundled into a single service. I might enjoy one show on Discovery and one on NatGeo, but I'd never sign up for their channels individually.
- stormbrew 7y ago
  I used to feel this way but more and more Netflix is the service i question if it’s worth the price to me. This holiday season kinda emphasized why: normally i wind up binging a lot of Christmas movies this time of year but their selection this year (in Canada at least) was downright bad. Like 1 or 2 things i recognized and a dozen or so crappy shovelware shows. I’m basically only in it for their original stuff now, which with everyone trying to eat their pie was really the only way they were ever going to keep people, but i could just sub for a couple months every year to binge those. Keeping the year round sub for that is kinda meh as a value proposition.
  - judge2020 7y ago
    > Like 1 or 2 things i recognized and a dozen or so crappy shovelware shows. https://i.redd.it/rd05w5nlj0541.jpg https://i.redd.it/rd05w5nlj0541.jpg
  - npo9 7y ago
    About three years ago I started intermittently paying for Netflix— watch some shows on nights and weekends and then drop the subscription for awhile while I wait for a backlog of new content to arrive. I strongly advocate for this type of behavior.
- WalterBright 7y ago
  Netflix has been steadily shrinking their DVD selection, which does not bode well. My local public library has a better selection. I do not understand why Netflix is doing that. I am glad I watched most of my "bucket list" of obscure movies while they had them.
  - Udik 7y ago
    There's popular pirate streaming websites, completely free and with no subscription, that have a movie catalogue that is huge compared to Netflix's, often in decent quality. Most of the movies I want to watch are only available there- I'd be glad to pay a fair price if they were available elsewhere. Also, the fact that the service of a supposed "tech giant" can be replicated and actually improved by a free pirate website financed by few dodgy ads, makes you think. Is the famed Netflix tech just in copyright handling?
- isatty 7y ago
  It’s cable TV all over again and it annoys me a lot. My process for watching something right now: 1. Use the AppleTV because no platform streams 1080p+ on Linux 2. Check Netflix 3. Check Primevideo 4. Check HBO (but not available on the AppleTV in my region) 5. Check if I can buy it from iTunes or something 6. Yes, but not in my region 7. Forget all of the above and go to a private tracker and chuck it on Plex.
  - taytus 7y ago
    >4. Check HBO (but not available on the AppleTV in my region) Fixed via a VPN.
    - avian 7y ago
      If you're going for copyright infringement, isn't it then simpler and cheaper to just jump straight to step 7?
      - CamelCaseName 7y ago
        Absolutely. Which comes back to the core offering of all these services: Discovery. Streaming services should be able to recommend things to me that I genuinely want to watch. Yet, I usually have to dig through their catalog (or use the search function if I already know) to find something worth watching. Otherwise, there really is little value over private trackers for those who don't care about infringement.
- Semaphor 7y ago
  I'd love another service. assuming it has decent content, I'd happily switch. Anything to get away from that atrocious user interface. Sadly the only competitor I know here is Amazon prime which is even worse.
  - duxup 7y ago
    It's sad as the early days of Netflix ... were pretty good UI / discovery wise.
mixmastamyk 7y ago
Bummer. I knew this would happen to some extent early in the decade, but thought they’d lose it all when the media companies took back control of their media. Also, was cleaned out over a margin call on Apple in ~2009. One of these days I’ll make the right call at the right time.
- luckydata 7y ago
  One of these days you'll stop trying to time the market and you'll make money.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - everdev 7y ago
    Hard to beat ETFs over the long run without insider information.
    - all2 7y ago
      Buy'n'hold is a hard strategy to beat in terms of results and time commitment. Two of the best people at this run fool.com.
  - mixmastamyk 7y ago
    Didn’t time it then or later, I went all in on the product of the decade/century the iPhone. Of course Wall st had other plans I wasn’t entirely prepared for.
- nugget 7y ago
  You have to know when to buy AND when to sell. I bought Netflix in 2010, but I sold it in 2011. I bought Amazon in 2006 and sold it a few months later. When the price doubles or triples, it's hard not to take the profits and run. That's why my best returns have all come from private equity, because it's locked up and I can't sell at the first dozen or so price points I would have wanted to.
usaphp 7y ago
> A $1 million bet on Netflix’s stock placed on Jan. 1, 2010, would be worth close to $43 million today. Same goes for AMD, in 2016 it was just $1.8, now it’s $47. Incredible growth in just 4 years
- swarnie_ 7y ago
  WSB validation. Sweet Mumma Su always brings the goods but she can be a cruel mistress sometimes.
- axaxs 7y ago
  That one hurt. AMD had hired Keller, and rumblings of a new generation were afoot. I'd just bought a house and had no spare cash, so told my trusted coworker to go all in on AMD. He had no spare cash either. Now we once a year have the 'so...AMD...yup...yup' conversation.
  - omnimus 7y ago
    And now they don't have Keller so... sell quickly?
    - eganist 7y ago
      Eh they still have Papermaster. Disclosure: I went long AMD in 2009 and doubled my bet when Mark joined.
  - dangus 7y ago
    Hindsight is 20/20. If in an alternate universe Intel had their 7nm process going by now as they should, AMD would be once again “nearly as fast” or “just as fast” and nobody using Intel for anything serious would switch over. Intel would have matched the price and that would have been that. AWS has AMD compute available simply because it costs 10% less, and you still have to opt-in. Would AWS have bothered with the offering if AMD simply cost the same? AMD hit a complete once-in-a-lifetime home run on the design and execution while Intel has missed a bunch of dates on their roadmap they expected to make. The AMD CEO herself said that she didn’t expect to be ahead of Intel. What I’m saying is that your bet would still have been a casino bet.
dasil003 7y ago
I bought Netflix at the time of the Qwikster debacle because it was obvious the market was overreacting to what amounted to a one-time mistake. At the time, Netflix was a leader in both vision and their technology was a major competitive advantage. Almost a decade later I'm bearish. Their technology advantage is being commoditized away, and production + marketing has not been their forte. It's possible they'll turn it around, but even so they've got a massive battle on their hands against the likes of Disney and other big content producers who have almost a century of experience in this exact arena. It's not that I don't think they'll be successful, but the current price is over-inflated because Tech—they've got a long way to go to justify the valuation.
- draw_down 7y ago
  Yeah, it seems a lot more likely for Disney etc to eat their lunch than vice-versa.
- natrik 7y ago
  It's hilarious how much production has not been their forte. Aside from a few hits like Stranger Things, most of their originals, which they need to pan out for future success (instead of paying 100 million for Friends) are absolute rubbish.
  - mennis16 7y ago
    Yet the originals they do hit on they hesitate to pay for once they get big. Why they axed BoJack and seem to have driven Bob-Waksberg to Amazon is beyond me. This was the first show I cared about to get that treatment but I've certainly heard anger about other shows as well e.g. Santa Clarita Diet. It's crazy to me how much they're willing to shell out for Friends rather than building on the good originals. But they probably are basing this on viewership numbers I don't have.
    - baby 7y ago
      I actually rather watch Friends (or closer: Archer) than BoJack but I know a lot of people seem to like that show.
taspeotis 7y ago
Some Netflix trivia: my residential internet connection can't stream Netflix as of yesterday. I get M7111-5059 which is "[y]ou seem to be using an unblocker or proxy" despite using neither VPN nor HTTP proxy. I don't have malware on my PC, everything else is an iDevice, the trickiest thing I do is use Google Public DNS [0]. Alas their help page [1] says to contact my ISP. Who have helpfully confirmed they aren't doing a VPN on my behalf! Contacting Netflix results in them asking me if I am using "automatic" network settings and to ... contact my ISP. "We’re confident that your ISP can get you back to streaming." My best theory is they've blocked a range of IPs belonging to my ISP because something in that range is helping users evade Netflix's geoblocking. If anybody knows more about how Netflix's great firewall works I am all ears... EDIT: Yes I have tried changing my IP by disconnecting the modem but it seems it's a static assignment. Next port of call is to ask the ISP. Or better yet, Netflix might unblock me! [0] Cloudflare DNS makes no difference, and my ISP's DNS makes no difference. [1] https://help.netflix.com/en/node/53047 https://help.netflix.com/en/node/53047
- judge2020 7y ago
  Maybe your ISP could give you a new IP but it would have to be outside the unknown range Netflix blocked (and would be useless if it's an AS block).
- robbintt 7y ago
  Unplug your modem/dsl/etc for about 30 minutes and see if you can get a new IP address assigned from your provider. If that doesn't work, connect to your modem/dsl/etc software and generate a new mac address, then repeat the 30 minute disconnect. If that doesn't work, call and ask for a new IP because netflix won't connect.
- superasn 7y ago
  Yeah i think they may be being used by some VPN service to bypass netflix with or without their knowledge. Like I use windscribe and they allow me to see netflix US, UK, etc using their windflix servers which look like proxies on a regular residential connection (it says London the tube when i connect to windflix uk for example ). I'm sure the rest of the VPN providers are doing something similar resulting in getting the whole ISP blocked.
jpmoral 7y ago
I should know better but I got into an Internet debate about when the millenium changed (1999 -> 2000 vs 2000 -> 2001 (obviously)). It all started when I made a joke about the decade not ending yet.
gok 7y ago
And second-to-top stock of the last two decades. [1] Top stock of the 90s was (I believe) Dell. [1] https://howmuch.net/articles/best-performing-stocks https://howmuch.net/articles/best-performing-stocks
shmerl 7y ago
Netflix also gradually moved to the dark side, disassociating from Internet companies alliances, and joining the MPAA and similar cartels of copyright maximalists.
lawrenceyan 7y ago
With Youtube and Disney+ encroaching on their territory, Netflix is in a pretty precarious position in my opinion.
- a13n 7y ago
  Not to mention Amazon Prime video and Hulu too
- anonu 7y ago
  Not sure how you measure precarious. Do you think people will just drop Netflix and run to another streaming provider? Or do people end up paying for a handful of these things? I can say from my own experience I've got at least 4 streaming subscriptions I can think of...
r32a_ 7y ago
Bitcoin beat every single stock.
- pergadad 7y ago
  And 2000 other speculative investment/currency projects failed
anonu 7y ago
Many people view the decade ending next year, 2020... So there's still time for TSLA to beat NFLX.

118 points by prostoalex 7y ago

Netflix started streaming in 2010. Apples fall down.

I remember for years I kept seeing predictions of Netflix's demise about how someone established coming along and doing it better or every content providers just not selling and/or creating their own service...and so on. Netflix is still around and at least for me it is one of a couple services I regularly use / keep and I'm actually kinda annoyed when another service comes along. I just watch what the handful of services I use have...I don't want to chase content around.

jliptzin 7y ago
Almost certainly the work of market manipulators. The SEC is asleep at the wheel. You should not read any articles about a company without considering that market manipulators are probably behind it. Watch Jim Cramer brag about how he used to manipulate the market: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMShFx5rThI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMShFx5rThI
- duxup 7y ago
  >You should not read any articles about a company without considering that market manipulators are probably behind it. I feel like that is a bit of a big assumption. The predictions I noted we're not unreasonable and I've no information that indicates any of it was for the reason you describe.
everdev 7y ago
> I'm actually kinda annoyed when another service comes along Same. I don't like too much cable TV content, but it is nice that it's all bundled into a single service. I might enjoy one show on Discovery and one on NatGeo, but I'd never sign up for their channels individually.
stormbrew 7y ago
I used to feel this way but more and more Netflix is the service i question if it’s worth the price to me. This holiday season kinda emphasized why: normally i wind up binging a lot of Christmas movies this time of year but their selection this year (in Canada at least) was downright bad. Like 1 or 2 things i recognized and a dozen or so crappy shovelware shows. I’m basically only in it for their original stuff now, which with everyone trying to eat their pie was really the only way they were ever going to keep people, but i could just sub for a couple months every year to binge those. Keeping the year round sub for that is kinda meh as a value proposition.
- judge2020 7y ago
  > Like 1 or 2 things i recognized and a dozen or so crappy shovelware shows. https://i.redd.it/rd05w5nlj0541.jpg https://i.redd.it/rd05w5nlj0541.jpg
- npo9 7y ago
  About three years ago I started intermittently paying for Netflix— watch some shows on nights and weekends and then drop the subscription for awhile while I wait for a backlog of new content to arrive. I strongly advocate for this type of behavior.
WalterBright 7y ago
Netflix has been steadily shrinking their DVD selection, which does not bode well. My local public library has a better selection. I do not understand why Netflix is doing that. I am glad I watched most of my "bucket list" of obscure movies while they had them.
- Udik 7y ago
  There's popular pirate streaming websites, completely free and with no subscription, that have a movie catalogue that is huge compared to Netflix's, often in decent quality. Most of the movies I want to watch are only available there- I'd be glad to pay a fair price if they were available elsewhere. Also, the fact that the service of a supposed "tech giant" can be replicated and actually improved by a free pirate website financed by few dodgy ads, makes you think. Is the famed Netflix tech just in copyright handling?
isatty 7y ago
It’s cable TV all over again and it annoys me a lot. My process for watching something right now: 1. Use the AppleTV because no platform streams 1080p+ on Linux 2. Check Netflix 3. Check Primevideo 4. Check HBO (but not available on the AppleTV in my region) 5. Check if I can buy it from iTunes or something 6. Yes, but not in my region 7. Forget all of the above and go to a private tracker and chuck it on Plex.
- taytus 7y ago
  >4. Check HBO (but not available on the AppleTV in my region) Fixed via a VPN.
  - avian 7y ago
    If you're going for copyright infringement, isn't it then simpler and cheaper to just jump straight to step 7?
    - CamelCaseName 7y ago
      Absolutely. Which comes back to the core offering of all these services: Discovery. Streaming services should be able to recommend things to me that I genuinely want to watch. Yet, I usually have to dig through their catalog (or use the search function if I already know) to find something worth watching. Otherwise, there really is little value over private trackers for those who don't care about infringement.
Semaphor 7y ago
I'd love another service. assuming it has decent content, I'd happily switch. Anything to get away from that atrocious user interface. Sadly the only competitor I know here is Amazon prime which is even worse.
- duxup 7y ago
  It's sad as the early days of Netflix ... were pretty good UI / discovery wise.

mixmastamyk 7y ago

Bummer. I knew this would happen to some extent early in the decade, but thought they’d lose it all when the media companies took back control of their media. Also, was cleaned out over a margin call on Apple in ~2009. One of these days I’ll make the right call at the right time.

luckydata 7y ago
One of these days you'll stop trying to time the market and you'll make money.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- everdev 7y ago
  Hard to beat ETFs over the long run without insider information.
  - all2 7y ago
    Buy'n'hold is a hard strategy to beat in terms of results and time commitment. Two of the best people at this run fool.com.
- mixmastamyk 7y ago
  Didn’t time it then or later, I went all in on the product of the decade/century the iPhone. Of course Wall st had other plans I wasn’t entirely prepared for.
nugget 7y ago
You have to know when to buy AND when to sell. I bought Netflix in 2010, but I sold it in 2011. I bought Amazon in 2006 and sold it a few months later. When the price doubles or triples, it's hard not to take the profits and run. That's why my best returns have all come from private equity, because it's locked up and I can't sell at the first dozen or so price points I would have wanted to.

usaphp 7y ago

> A $1 million bet on Netflix’s stock placed on Jan. 1, 2010, would be worth close to $43 million today. Same goes for AMD, in 2016 it was just $1.8, now it’s $47. Incredible growth in just 4 years

swarnie_ 7y ago
WSB validation. Sweet Mumma Su always brings the goods but she can be a cruel mistress sometimes.
axaxs 7y ago
That one hurt. AMD had hired Keller, and rumblings of a new generation were afoot. I'd just bought a house and had no spare cash, so told my trusted coworker to go all in on AMD. He had no spare cash either. Now we once a year have the 'so...AMD...yup...yup' conversation.
- omnimus 7y ago
  And now they don't have Keller so... sell quickly?
  - eganist 7y ago
    Eh they still have Papermaster. Disclosure: I went long AMD in 2009 and doubled my bet when Mark joined.
- dangus 7y ago
  Hindsight is 20/20. If in an alternate universe Intel had their 7nm process going by now as they should, AMD would be once again “nearly as fast” or “just as fast” and nobody using Intel for anything serious would switch over. Intel would have matched the price and that would have been that. AWS has AMD compute available simply because it costs 10% less, and you still have to opt-in. Would AWS have bothered with the offering if AMD simply cost the same? AMD hit a complete once-in-a-lifetime home run on the design and execution while Intel has missed a bunch of dates on their roadmap they expected to make. The AMD CEO herself said that she didn’t expect to be ahead of Intel. What I’m saying is that your bet would still have been a casino bet.

dasil003 7y ago

I bought Netflix at the time of the Qwikster debacle because it was obvious the market was overreacting to what amounted to a one-time mistake. At the time, Netflix was a leader in both vision and their technology was a major competitive advantage. Almost a decade later I'm bearish. Their technology advantage is being commoditized away, and production + marketing has not been their forte. It's possible they'll turn it around, but even so they've got a massive battle on their hands against the likes of Disney and other big content producers who have almost a century of experience in this exact arena. It's not that I don't think they'll be successful, but the current price is over-inflated because Tech—they've got a long way to go to justify the valuation.

draw_down 7y ago
Yeah, it seems a lot more likely for Disney etc to eat their lunch than vice-versa.
natrik 7y ago
It's hilarious how much production has not been their forte. Aside from a few hits like Stranger Things, most of their originals, which they need to pan out for future success (instead of paying 100 million for Friends) are absolute rubbish.
- mennis16 7y ago
  Yet the originals they do hit on they hesitate to pay for once they get big. Why they axed BoJack and seem to have driven Bob-Waksberg to Amazon is beyond me. This was the first show I cared about to get that treatment but I've certainly heard anger about other shows as well e.g. Santa Clarita Diet. It's crazy to me how much they're willing to shell out for Friends rather than building on the good originals. But they probably are basing this on viewership numbers I don't have.
  - baby 7y ago
    I actually rather watch Friends (or closer: Archer) than BoJack but I know a lot of people seem to like that show.

taspeotis 7y ago

Some Netflix trivia: my residential internet connection can't stream Netflix as of yesterday. I get M7111-5059 which is "[y]ou seem to be using an unblocker or proxy" despite using neither VPN nor HTTP proxy. I don't have malware on my PC, everything else is an iDevice, the trickiest thing I do is use Google Public DNS [0]. Alas their help page [1] says to contact my ISP. Who have helpfully confirmed they aren't doing a VPN on my behalf! Contacting Netflix results in them asking me if I am using "automatic" network settings and to ... contact my ISP. "We’re confident that your ISP can get you back to streaming." My best theory is they've blocked a range of IPs belonging to my ISP because something in that range is helping users evade Netflix's geoblocking. If anybody knows more about how Netflix's great firewall works I am all ears... EDIT: Yes I have tried changing my IP by disconnecting the modem but it seems it's a static assignment. Next port of call is to ask the ISP. Or better yet, Netflix might unblock me! [0] Cloudflare DNS makes no difference, and my ISP's DNS makes no difference. [1] https://help.netflix.com/en/node/53047 https://help.netflix.com/en/node/53047

judge2020 7y ago
Maybe your ISP could give you a new IP but it would have to be outside the unknown range Netflix blocked (and would be useless if it's an AS block).
robbintt 7y ago
Unplug your modem/dsl/etc for about 30 minutes and see if you can get a new IP address assigned from your provider. If that doesn't work, connect to your modem/dsl/etc software and generate a new mac address, then repeat the 30 minute disconnect. If that doesn't work, call and ask for a new IP because netflix won't connect.
superasn 7y ago
Yeah i think they may be being used by some VPN service to bypass netflix with or without their knowledge. Like I use windscribe and they allow me to see netflix US, UK, etc using their windflix servers which look like proxies on a regular residential connection (it says London the tube when i connect to windflix uk for example ). I'm sure the rest of the VPN providers are doing something similar resulting in getting the whole ISP blocked.

jpmoral 7y ago

I should know better but I got into an Internet debate about when the millenium changed (1999 -> 2000 vs 2000 -> 2001 (obviously)). It all started when I made a joke about the decade not ending yet.

gok 7y ago

And second-to-top stock of the last two decades. [1] Top stock of the 90s was (I believe) Dell. [1] https://howmuch.net/articles/best-performing-stocks https://howmuch.net/articles/best-performing-stocks

shmerl 7y ago

Netflix also gradually moved to the dark side, disassociating from Internet companies alliances, and joining the MPAA and similar cartels of copyright maximalists.

lawrenceyan 7y ago

With Youtube and Disney+ encroaching on their territory, Netflix is in a pretty precarious position in my opinion.

a13n 7y ago
Not to mention Amazon Prime video and Hulu too
anonu 7y ago
Not sure how you measure precarious. Do you think people will just drop Netflix and run to another streaming provider? Or do people end up paying for a handful of these things? I can say from my own experience I've got at least 4 streaming subscriptions I can think of...

r32a_ 7y ago

Bitcoin beat every single stock.

pergadad 7y ago
And 2000 other speculative investment/currency projects failed

anonu 7y ago

Many people view the decade ending next year, 2020... So there's still time for TSLA to beat NFLX.