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If China figured out Fusion first, would they keep secret how to do it or is scientific knowledge like this shared?
by jonplackett 7y ago
If China figured out Fusion first, would they keep secret how to do it or is scientific knowledge like this shared?
- randrews 7y agoIf they planned to keep it secret, why tell anyone that they're about to start the thing up?
- stjohnswarts 7y agoPrestige is very important to the Chinese government and keeping its people until its jackboot.
- m3kw9 7y agoIt will probably just delay others from finding out for a short period
- adventured 7y agoIt wouldn't make any difference. The US can ultimately get at any technology in China just the same as China can get to any technology in the US. It wouldn't remain secret for very long no matter what they did. In fact long before they officially figured out fusion first, the US would realize what they were on to and react; just as China would the other direction.
- chmod775 7y agoChina is a member of the ITER project.
- remarkEon 7y agoI don’t know this matters. If China did make a breakthrough here it undoubtedly would be classified as a military technology. They may advertise to the world that they did it, for ego points, but I have a very hard time dreaming up a scenario where they’d actively share it.
- chmod775 7y agoFirst off, you are overestimating the extent to which the Chinese government 'screens' the publications and communications of its scientists greatly. A lot of papers have been published during development of this particular reactor for instance. Research tends to be so international these days that the chances of any country keeping significant breakthroughs to themselves are pretty slim. Scientists from countless nations are working on ITER and pooling their knowledge. The only way to keep these things under wraps is if you were running it as some kind of top secret project from the start and poured billions into it. And then you'd still be operating at a disadvantage because you can't bring in outside expertise. Considering the scale needed for serious Tokamaks (and not just small research models) and also the history of the field, I have a hard time imagining a scenario where such a thing would be kept under wraps. Fusion research is really an international community. There's not much "they" to point your finger at.
- remarkEon 7y agoI’m not overestimating anything. I agree with other comments in this thread about the geopolitical choices China would have to make if they actually did make fusion work. I think you’re underestimating what kind of groundbreaking technology this is and how quickly CCP would figure out a way to leverage it - international research involvement be damned. Free(ish) energy is the kind of thing that fundamentally rebalances the global order. US control of shipping lanes, or consistent access to oil is what has made the US the super power it is. China inventing Fusion would make all of that obsolete.
- monocasa 7y agoGeopolitically, China is trying to prove that it's capable of ground breaking technology originating in China. It makes no sense for them to hide it; they're going to be singing from the rooftops that they were first if they achieve that. It'd be like if we went to the moon, but kept it under wraps. Like, why bother?
- microcolonel 7y agoOr they might just pretend, shuffle the waste out through tunnels; they already have a LOT of tunnels.
- rowanG077 7y agoGoing to the moon is not comparable to obtaining fusion. The entire reason to go to the moon is political dominance. The goal of fusion is not political dominance it's nigh limitless clean energy. China would be stupid to share such a huge advantage with the rest of the world. It simply doesn't way up to the political gain.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- threeseed 7y agoThe technology would eventually be stolen just like we have seen China successfully steal so much Western technologies.
- scarmig 7y agoSure, but why not take advantage of a 3-5 years head start? If China were close to a surplus-energy generating Tokamak, the smart thing to do would be vague about it while pumping out a lot of disinformation to confuse Western intelligence agencies about the most productive path forward for research.
- godelski 7y ago
- Merrill 7y agoThey would patent it and license the patents to corporations in other countries.
- loceng 7y agoWould anyone feel obligated to license and not just copy the tech?
- Merrill 7y agoChina would no doubt take legal action to insist that other organizations and countries respect their intellectual property, license it, and pay royalties. By the time all the agreements with China to respect IP are in place, China will be producing more patents annually than any other country.
- GhettoMaestro 7y ago> China would no doubt take legal action to insist that other organizations and countries respect their intellectual property, license it, and pay royalties. HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHA. Sorry, let me re-group and be serious...... HAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAA WHAT A JOKE. HAHJAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHA
- bigodbiel 7y agotheoretically yes, China has bluntly stolen western tech and appropriated it. But still the western "order" is based on such agreements, and if its upholders (the west) decides to forgo it, all hell breaks loose.
- mullingitover 7y agoThe US was a brazen pirate right up until the point when it became profitable to abide by international patent and copyright treaties. We don't like it when other countries do what we did, but I personally can't fault them.
- tanilama 7y agoIt won't matter, this is too critical, like nuclear bomb. Other players will rush to get the solution in their hands, by all means at all cost.
- elfexec 7y agoFusion would be a national security level tech - like FTL travel or general AI. Heck, it would be beyond national security level. Nobody would share that without some geopolitical considerations. To put it in perspective, the US is fighting china over relatively mundane nonsense like 5G, semiconductors, etc. Fusion would be many orders of magnitude more important than any tech we have today. The US exploited the control of oil to conquer and rule over the entire world. Every nation on earth is a vassal on some level ( even china and russia ) to the US because we discovered and exploited oil first and pretty much ended up controlling most of it around the world. The international world order is an american world order because of oil. If madagascar or north korea discovered fusion, they would control the commanding heights and they wouldn't share such a secret without getting something in return. If that is the case for madagascar/north korea, major nations like china, japan, france, germany, russia, india, turkey, nigeria, brazil, venezuela, etc who don't want to be under american domination would be even more incentivized to keep it for themselves. What is the value of limitless free and environmentally friendly energy? Priceless. It's the type of tech which alters human trajectory and the world order. Not only is fusion priceless in and of itself, it's priceless in terms of it's derivative effects. Discovery of fusion can lead to general AI and vice versa. In other words, ain't nobody sharing fusion tech - at least not without significant strings attached.
- stjohnswarts 7y agoThere's no way China would give it the technology to us. We'd have to steal it through subterfuge just like the Russians stole nuclear plans in the 50s
- Rapzid 7y agoIt would be shared or stolen(liberated?). The benefit to the world is too great to keep something like that secret for long. Plus, global warming.