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Source? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow... > Projections for after

by pacala 7y ago

Source? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow... > Projections for after 2050 have usually assumed that fertility rates will have declined by then and the population will be stable or will decrease. However, a study in 2014 found that fertility rates in Africa have leveled off at around 4.6 instead of continuing to decline, and that consequently world population may be as high as 12 billion by 2100. Reasons for the continuing high birth rate include better survival rates with respect to HIV, and contraception shortage.[18][19] Evolutionary biology also suggests the demographic transition may reverse itself; in addition, recent evidence suggests birth rates may be rising in the 21st century in the developed world.[20] UN projections published in 2019 estimate the world population in 2100 to be 11.2 billion

adventured 7y ago
> in addition, recent evidence suggests birth rates may be rising in the 21st century in the developed world There is zero evidence that birth rates are rising organically in the developed world in the 21st century, that part is demonstrably false. It's not close to being true. Birth rates continue to decline across essentially all of the developed world and their populations continue to age at the median (Germany and Japan, two of the largest, are up to 47 at the median now). The only thing propping the figures up at all is some immigration, recent immigrants having slightly larger families. Even that is entirely failing to stem the downward trend in the US (the largest developed nation by population and one that has better demographics re expansion than most other developed nations). Drop out the false shifting of population expansion via larger recent immigrant families and the developed world is in a population plunge. > Reasons for the continuing high birth rate include better survival rates with respect to HIV HIV survival rates going up will decrease population growth over time, not increase it. People have fewer children when their expectations of a very long life and the general chance of survival in their culture is higher. Curing HIV would substantially slow population growth over the span of a century.

by pacala 7y ago

adventured 7y ago

> in addition, recent evidence suggests birth rates may be rising in the 21st century in the developed world There is zero evidence that birth rates are rising organically in the developed world in the 21st century, that part is demonstrably false. It's not close to being true. Birth rates continue to decline across essentially all of the developed world and their populations continue to age at the median (Germany and Japan, two of the largest, are up to 47 at the median now). The only thing propping the figures up at all is some immigration, recent immigrants having slightly larger families. Even that is entirely failing to stem the downward trend in the US (the largest developed nation by population and one that has better demographics re expansion than most other developed nations). Drop out the false shifting of population expansion via larger recent immigrant families and the developed world is in a population plunge. > Reasons for the continuing high birth rate include better survival rates with respect to HIV HIV survival rates going up will decrease population growth over time, not increase it. People have fewer children when their expectations of a very long life and the general chance of survival in their culture is higher. Curing HIV would substantially slow population growth over the span of a century.