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Maybe Masayoshi Son secretly hates Mohammad bin Salman and the whole Softbank Vision Fund was just a clever way to basically light Saudi oil money on fire while

Maybe Masayoshi Son secretly hates Mohammad bin Salman and the whole Softbank Vision Fund was just a clever way to basically light Saudi oil money on fire while maintaining plausible deniability. Looking at Softbank's investments, I am having trouble coming up with a better explanation for their behavior.

devicetray0 7y ago
I doubt that, but sounds like a decent short story idea for /r/writingprompts
- GrayTextIsTruth 7y ago
  i don't know why it bothers me so much when i see redditors spam /r/thing outside of reddit.
  - williamscales 7y ago
    Because it applies the convention of one forum to another. It assumes that the readers of this forum will be familiar with them and appreciate their inclusion.
    - GrayTextIsTruth 7y ago
      >It assumes that the readers of this forum will be familiar with them It assumes users of this forum are redditors, but the way they say it shows how they view reddit as the center of discussion
draw_down 7y ago
It's not that I disagree, so much as there are much more entertaining ways to set money on fire, so why do it this way? I mean, at this point would you rather be Adam Neumann or Masa Son? I know my answer. Maybe he just sucks at investing and many of his successes were lucky/flukes.
AndrewStephens 7y ago
I'm beginning to suspect a Brewster's Millions situation.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- peteradio 7y ago
  They should do a remake subbing the characters.
fnord77 7y ago
I know this is probably in jest, but I think Hanlon's razor applies here > "Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence."
- onlyrealcuzzo 7y ago
  I'm guessing the risk was asymetric for SoftBank vs KSA. SoftBank probably made a ton of money guaranteed by the deals, plus the chance to make a ton more if they worked out. KSA only makes money if it works out, and it's not. KSA loses, SoftBank still won.
- Chris_Chambers 7y ago
  Never attribute to Hanlon’s razor that which can adequately be explained by anyone with a sufficiently high IQ to fully comprehend all the nuances of a situation. Everyone who ever cites Hanlon’s razor is just admitting they’re too stupid to see the bigger picture.
- vsareto 7y ago
  Incompetence apparently pays pretty well
- daenz 7y ago
  Hanlon's razor is forever at odds with plausible deniability.
- pvarangot 7y ago
  There is of course a middle point here... "oh, I don't like this guy and he's incompetent enough so that I can be a little evil to him without risking any consecuence".
- catalogia 7y ago
  Widespread belief in Hanlon's razor is very useful to anybody looking to get away with something.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
bduerst 7y ago
Regardless of motive, the whole asset-sharing startup bubble is a pretty effective wealth redistribution scheme. It took billionaires' money and used it to subsidize taxi rides, shared work spaces, and dog walking. At the least, maybe Masayoshi is a reluctant Robin Hood?
- magduf 7y ago
  If SoftBank wants to do something more productive with all that cash, I propose they invest a huge amount in some Japanese aircraft manufacturer so they can start building planes competitive with the 737MAX. The aircraft market is screaming for something like this, with the existing duopoly between Boeing and Airbus, and seemingly a new article every week about how bad Boeing is (today, it's some new whisleblower former 737 production manager alleging production problems with the plane). China is working on building such aircraft, but surely Japanese-made aircraft would be trusted much more. This would certainly be a much better use of VC money than subsidizing dog-walking.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - kalleboo 7y ago
    Mitsubishi is starting deliveries of their regional jet next year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_SpaceJet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_SpaceJet I don't think throwing more money at the problem will speed it up too much, they need to build up the institutional knowledge with smaller projects like this before jumping on a jumbo jet.
    - magduf 7y ago
      Yeah, I've read about that, and it's good news, but more investment does allow faster expansion because building bigger planes requires capital investment in facilities. But you're right, you can only expand so fast because you have to build up institutional knowledge, however I will point out that I wasn't proposing that they jump right to jumbo jets, only that they need to more quickly build jets competitive with the 737MAX (which is a mid-size jet). Eventually it'd be great if they also built jumbo jets, but what the market needs the most right now is a modern 737 replacement made by someone other than Boeing. Boeing isn't trustworthy any more, and they're still bound and determined to stick with a 50-year-old airframe design no matter what. I'll also suggest that, with lots of investment funding, not only could they buy more equipment and land and build facilities, they could also poach valuable employees from other aircraft makers to build up that institutional knowledge more quickly. Surely there's some disgruntled Boeing engineers who value quality and safety over executive bonuses who might like to work for a while in Nagoya?
dv_dt 7y ago
Many Saudi money investments over the years have gone to ridiculous non-returning projects. As much publicity as they've been getting, I suspect the Soft bank guided investment have actually moved the bar upward on the quality of Saudi project investments. The Saudis have this huge problem of trying to turn all the oil wealth into something, anything more permanent to diversify their economy before the oil runs dry or climate regulations cutoff the money flow. Earlier work more independently seems to not to have come to much so. Soft Bank and maybe even to some degree the ARAMCO IPO are possible ways to try to tie into global capability to try to up their conversion success.
- dmurray 7y ago
  Very much the Aramco IPO. Selling off a stake in that to buy non-correlated assets is a big step towards diversification.
  - nradov 7y ago
    The Aramco IPO while huge only raised about $1200 per Saudi Arabian citizen. That's not going to keep them going very long.
    - dmurray 7y ago
      I guess it's more correct to say the (partial) sale of Aramco is a major part of their diversification efforts, and the IPO is the first step in that. They wanted to sell more, and surely will if the price is right.
- skybrian 7y ago
  I'm wondering why Saudi Arabia doesn't just buy the S&P 500 like any index fund. It doesn't seem that hard to diversify? Is it not possible at their scale? Norway has a trillion dollar sovereign investment fund and they seem to be profitable and uncontroversial?
  - wmil 7y ago
riter 7y ago
Reality may not be too far a departure from fiction. Great writeup by Professor Galloway on how this could have been a CIA job in the form of a Homeland treatment I found really fun to read: https://www.profgalloway.com/when-reality-becomes-fiction https://www.profgalloway.com/when-reality-becomes-fiction
- Scipio_Afri 7y ago
  Well written, I enjoyed it. It is a fictional story, just because something like that seems like it could happen in the world doesn't mean its reality. I think it plays into the desire we have to have order in the world, some unknowing or unseen force driving things and the world is not as chaotic as it really seems. Its the same thing that drives people to theorize about what is really going on behind the scenes about other events, e.g. suicides, plane crashes, etc. The economic system is driven by greed, there are countless other companies that have essentially been vaporware with no serious amount of foreign investing like WeWork had. Stock symbol GTAT was one that went bankrupt on contract to make sapphire screens for Apple. They weren't a scam but way over promised on what they could do, fooled Apple's due diligence to spend half a billion dollars on a plant in Arizona to make these sapphire screens. Both American companies, GTAT headquartered in New Hampshire and mostly large US institutional investors as their main shareholders. WATT is another one that I know of and have been following, claims the ability to wireless charge phones not on a mat but in a given area or in a room. However they is no feasible way they can simply overcome physics on that: radio waves follow an inverse square law for power density and they won't get the type of power delivered for that and other reasons. Using a mat if you want wireless charging is about as good as its going to get for the trade offs that come with that. Anything else just doesn't seem economical or able to provide enough of an advantage for people to buy it.. getting that advantage is going to be really hard especially with the technology the company is developing, cause inverse square law. Also wattage for charging a phone is increasing, and we're now seeing power adapters using GaN and delivering 40+Watts in a small form factor... the gap will continue to widen and they won't be able to overcome physics. Yet the stock was as high as 15 or so dollars a share in the last year. Now down to around 2... in this market that is no easy thing to do. Heck even Apple couldn't get it right to make a mat that could charge 3 different devices at once and had to cancel it because, once again, physics. Enron is the classic example for vaporware and downright fraud. If any entity was hit the strongest by that it would be the state of California having lost billions in economic activity due to the rolling blackouts that company imposed on the state for years to make money.
nradov 7y ago
While Adam Neumann seems like a bit of a jerk, we're probably all better off if he has the money instead of the Saudi royal family.

devicetray0 7y ago

I doubt that, but sounds like a decent short story idea for /r/writingprompts

GrayTextIsTruth 7y ago
i don't know why it bothers me so much when i see redditors spam /r/thing outside of reddit.
- williamscales 7y ago
  Because it applies the convention of one forum to another. It assumes that the readers of this forum will be familiar with them and appreciate their inclusion.
  - GrayTextIsTruth 7y ago
    >It assumes that the readers of this forum will be familiar with them It assumes users of this forum are redditors, but the way they say it shows how they view reddit as the center of discussion

draw_down 7y ago

It's not that I disagree, so much as there are much more entertaining ways to set money on fire, so why do it this way? I mean, at this point would you rather be Adam Neumann or Masa Son? I know my answer. Maybe he just sucks at investing and many of his successes were lucky/flukes.

AndrewStephens 7y ago

I'm beginning to suspect a Brewster's Millions situation.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
peteradio 7y ago
They should do a remake subbing the characters.

fnord77 7y ago

I know this is probably in jest, but I think Hanlon's razor applies here > "Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence."

onlyrealcuzzo 7y ago
I'm guessing the risk was asymetric for SoftBank vs KSA. SoftBank probably made a ton of money guaranteed by the deals, plus the chance to make a ton more if they worked out. KSA only makes money if it works out, and it's not. KSA loses, SoftBank still won.
Chris_Chambers 7y ago
Never attribute to Hanlon’s razor that which can adequately be explained by anyone with a sufficiently high IQ to fully comprehend all the nuances of a situation. Everyone who ever cites Hanlon’s razor is just admitting they’re too stupid to see the bigger picture.
vsareto 7y ago
Incompetence apparently pays pretty well
daenz 7y ago
Hanlon's razor is forever at odds with plausible deniability.
pvarangot 7y ago
There is of course a middle point here... "oh, I don't like this guy and he's incompetent enough so that I can be a little evil to him without risking any consecuence".
catalogia 7y ago
Widespread belief in Hanlon's razor is very useful to anybody looking to get away with something.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

bduerst 7y ago

Regardless of motive, the whole asset-sharing startup bubble is a pretty effective wealth redistribution scheme. It took billionaires' money and used it to subsidize taxi rides, shared work spaces, and dog walking. At the least, maybe Masayoshi is a reluctant Robin Hood?

magduf 7y ago
If SoftBank wants to do something more productive with all that cash, I propose they invest a huge amount in some Japanese aircraft manufacturer so they can start building planes competitive with the 737MAX. The aircraft market is screaming for something like this, with the existing duopoly between Boeing and Airbus, and seemingly a new article every week about how bad Boeing is (today, it's some new whisleblower former 737 production manager alleging production problems with the plane). China is working on building such aircraft, but surely Japanese-made aircraft would be trusted much more. This would certainly be a much better use of VC money than subsidizing dog-walking.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- kalleboo 7y ago
  Mitsubishi is starting deliveries of their regional jet next year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_SpaceJet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_SpaceJet I don't think throwing more money at the problem will speed it up too much, they need to build up the institutional knowledge with smaller projects like this before jumping on a jumbo jet.
  - magduf 7y ago
    Yeah, I've read about that, and it's good news, but more investment does allow faster expansion because building bigger planes requires capital investment in facilities. But you're right, you can only expand so fast because you have to build up institutional knowledge, however I will point out that I wasn't proposing that they jump right to jumbo jets, only that they need to more quickly build jets competitive with the 737MAX (which is a mid-size jet). Eventually it'd be great if they also built jumbo jets, but what the market needs the most right now is a modern 737 replacement made by someone other than Boeing. Boeing isn't trustworthy any more, and they're still bound and determined to stick with a 50-year-old airframe design no matter what. I'll also suggest that, with lots of investment funding, not only could they buy more equipment and land and build facilities, they could also poach valuable employees from other aircraft makers to build up that institutional knowledge more quickly. Surely there's some disgruntled Boeing engineers who value quality and safety over executive bonuses who might like to work for a while in Nagoya?

dv_dt 7y ago

Many Saudi money investments over the years have gone to ridiculous non-returning projects. As much publicity as they've been getting, I suspect the Soft bank guided investment have actually moved the bar upward on the quality of Saudi project investments. The Saudis have this huge problem of trying to turn all the oil wealth into something, anything more permanent to diversify their economy before the oil runs dry or climate regulations cutoff the money flow. Earlier work more independently seems to not to have come to much so. Soft Bank and maybe even to some degree the ARAMCO IPO are possible ways to try to tie into global capability to try to up their conversion success.

dmurray 7y ago
Very much the Aramco IPO. Selling off a stake in that to buy non-correlated assets is a big step towards diversification.
- nradov 7y ago
  The Aramco IPO while huge only raised about $1200 per Saudi Arabian citizen. That's not going to keep them going very long.
  - dmurray 7y ago
    I guess it's more correct to say the (partial) sale of Aramco is a major part of their diversification efforts, and the IPO is the first step in that. They wanted to sell more, and surely will if the price is right.
skybrian 7y ago
I'm wondering why Saudi Arabia doesn't just buy the S&P 500 like any index fund. It doesn't seem that hard to diversify? Is it not possible at their scale? Norway has a trillion dollar sovereign investment fund and they seem to be profitable and uncontroversial?
- wmil 7y ago

riter 7y ago

Reality may not be too far a departure from fiction. Great writeup by Professor Galloway on how this could have been a CIA job in the form of a Homeland treatment I found really fun to read: https://www.profgalloway.com/when-reality-becomes-fiction https://www.profgalloway.com/when-reality-becomes-fiction

Scipio_Afri 7y ago
Well written, I enjoyed it. It is a fictional story, just because something like that seems like it could happen in the world doesn't mean its reality. I think it plays into the desire we have to have order in the world, some unknowing or unseen force driving things and the world is not as chaotic as it really seems. Its the same thing that drives people to theorize about what is really going on behind the scenes about other events, e.g. suicides, plane crashes, etc. The economic system is driven by greed, there are countless other companies that have essentially been vaporware with no serious amount of foreign investing like WeWork had. Stock symbol GTAT was one that went bankrupt on contract to make sapphire screens for Apple. They weren't a scam but way over promised on what they could do, fooled Apple's due diligence to spend half a billion dollars on a plant in Arizona to make these sapphire screens. Both American companies, GTAT headquartered in New Hampshire and mostly large US institutional investors as their main shareholders. WATT is another one that I know of and have been following, claims the ability to wireless charge phones not on a mat but in a given area or in a room. However they is no feasible way they can simply overcome physics on that: radio waves follow an inverse square law for power density and they won't get the type of power delivered for that and other reasons. Using a mat if you want wireless charging is about as good as its going to get for the trade offs that come with that. Anything else just doesn't seem economical or able to provide enough of an advantage for people to buy it.. getting that advantage is going to be really hard especially with the technology the company is developing, cause inverse square law. Also wattage for charging a phone is increasing, and we're now seeing power adapters using GaN and delivering 40+Watts in a small form factor... the gap will continue to widen and they won't be able to overcome physics. Yet the stock was as high as 15 or so dollars a share in the last year. Now down to around 2... in this market that is no easy thing to do. Heck even Apple couldn't get it right to make a mat that could charge 3 different devices at once and had to cancel it because, once again, physics. Enron is the classic example for vaporware and downright fraud. If any entity was hit the strongest by that it would be the state of California having lost billions in economic activity due to the rolling blackouts that company imposed on the state for years to make money.

nradov 7y ago

While Adam Neumann seems like a bit of a jerk, we're probably all better off if he has the money instead of the Saudi royal family.