5 ms·

Jumping to Conclusions: When People Decide Based on Insufficient Information

26 points by m3nu 7y ago

m3nu 7y ago
My personal favorite: > Inference-observation confusion. Inference-observation confusion involves mistaking something that you inferred using logic, for something that you observed.
- sitkack 7y ago
  Experiential idiots vs theoretical idiots. Some people really can pattern match an order of magnitude better than other folks, likewise I know folks who can logic better than Spock but they have huge gaps in creative problem solving. Minds are amazing.
jdkee 7y ago
If only there was some kind of say, mat, that could guide us.
styfle 7y ago
Admittedly, I jumped to conclusions thinking someone finally made the Jump To Conclusions game from Office Space :D https://youtu.be/sDEL4Ty950Q https://youtu.be/sDEL4Ty950Q
lostmsu 7y ago
This is a severely shortened and retold list of biases from Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases under a more clickbaity name.
- hmwhy 7y ago
  I don't think that's a fair judgement. The Wikipedia page that you linked to lists 192 very specific types of cognitive bias; even if the information of the article were directly derived from the Wikipedia page, the author still managed to distilled 192 entries down to 7 categories. In addition, the article also has advice on how to avoid jumping to conclusions, and deal with people who tend to jump to conclusions. Those are clearly not derived from the link you provided. Edit: typo (conclusion --> conclusions).
  - lostmsu 7y ago
    I did not mean he took that list, and transformed it. But the result is the same. The categorization offered is pretty arbitrary.
  - HNLurker2 7y ago
    That Wikipedia page is a concise version of lesswrong with more list based instead going into detail.
11thEarlOfMar 7y ago
Adams has a fun take on many cognitive biases in "Loserthink", which takes on 'unproductive ways of thinking'. https://www.amazon.com/Loserthink-Untrained-Brains-Ruining-America/dp/0593083520 https://www.amazon.com/Loserthink-Untrained-Brains-Ruining-A...
sitkack 7y ago
I think we always operate un insufficient information because we are blind to so much. I don't know which neuroscientist philosopher said this, but that we use our cognitive powers to defend the non-cognitive decisions we have already made. We rationalize decisions vs make rational decisions. Same reason we defend an idea even when we know well we shouldn't.

26 points by m3nu 7y ago

m3nu 7y ago

My personal favorite: > Inference-observation confusion. Inference-observation confusion involves mistaking something that you inferred using logic, for something that you observed.

sitkack 7y ago
Experiential idiots vs theoretical idiots. Some people really can pattern match an order of magnitude better than other folks, likewise I know folks who can logic better than Spock but they have huge gaps in creative problem solving. Minds are amazing.

jdkee 7y ago

If only there was some kind of say, mat, that could guide us.

styfle 7y ago

Admittedly, I jumped to conclusions thinking someone finally made the Jump To Conclusions game from Office Space :D https://youtu.be/sDEL4Ty950Q https://youtu.be/sDEL4Ty950Q

lostmsu 7y ago

This is a severely shortened and retold list of biases from Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases under a more clickbaity name.

hmwhy 7y ago
I don't think that's a fair judgement. The Wikipedia page that you linked to lists 192 very specific types of cognitive bias; even if the information of the article were directly derived from the Wikipedia page, the author still managed to distilled 192 entries down to 7 categories. In addition, the article also has advice on how to avoid jumping to conclusions, and deal with people who tend to jump to conclusions. Those are clearly not derived from the link you provided. Edit: typo (conclusion --> conclusions).
- lostmsu 7y ago
  I did not mean he took that list, and transformed it. But the result is the same. The categorization offered is pretty arbitrary.
- HNLurker2 7y ago
  That Wikipedia page is a concise version of lesswrong with more list based instead going into detail.

11thEarlOfMar 7y ago

Adams has a fun take on many cognitive biases in "Loserthink", which takes on 'unproductive ways of thinking'. https://www.amazon.com/Loserthink-Untrained-Brains-Ruining-America/dp/0593083520 https://www.amazon.com/Loserthink-Untrained-Brains-Ruining-A...

sitkack 7y ago

I think we always operate un insufficient information because we are blind to so much. I don't know which neuroscientist philosopher said this, but that we use our cognitive powers to defend the non-cognitive decisions we have already made. We rationalize decisions vs make rational decisions. Same reason we defend an idea even when we know well we shouldn't.