7 ms·

As a non-economist (amateur or professional), I get the impression that countries are losing their concern of the repercussions of displeasing the USA economica

As a non-economist (amateur or professional), I get the impression that countries are losing their concern of the repercussions of displeasing the USA economically. Is this an accurate interpretation? If so, is it that they're less fearful of reprisals (tariffs?) or that they're less confident in the benefits of cooperation with the USA? Or a mix? Or something else?

mc32 7y ago
I think it’s more like they’re trying to catch up with the internet. Kind of like in the US states are finally able to get Amazon to tax sales on their behalf —previously people had to self report; and the reporting rate was very very low...
pmontra 7y ago
The USA are entering an isolationist phase (it started with Obama, acccelerated by Trump) so it's natural that the rest of world is a little bit less concerned about their threats. Unfortunately the new possible friends look less friendly than the USA of the second half of '900.
- corebit 7y ago
  Please use the right words so that no one misunderstands the truth or thinks that you are lying. What the USA is doing is in no way isolationist. That is something completely different with no parallels or relations in any way. Using the word isolationist is misleading to the point of mistruth. It would be more accurate and representative of reality to say the USA appears to be acting more independently on the international stage. Isolation would imply the USA is not acting on the international stage at all.
  - wil421 7y ago
    To add to your comment: Definition of isolationism : a policy of national isolation by abstention from alliances and other international political and economic relations Further reading. American Isolationism in the 1930s[1]. [1] https://history.state.gov/milestones/1937-1945/american-isolationism https://history.state.gov/milestones/1937-1945/american-isol...
  - gbuk2013 7y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_First_(policy) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_First_(policy) as championed by the current US president. "America First refers to a foreign policy in the United States that generally emphasizes American nationalism, unilateralism, protectionism, and isolationism."
    - adventured 7y ago
      The US has 180 military bases around the world and isn't moving to close them by and large. The US is the center of NATO and, despite Trump's occasional rhetoric, is not moving to leave the alliance. The US is persistently using its naval projection capabilities to challenge China's territorial ambitions around Asia (including constantly sailing its navy through the illegally annexed South China Sea territory). Nobody else in the world can or will do that, including none of the fellow NATO members. The US has a very large military presence in South Korea and Japan, positions both countries are openly thankful for and willing to pay more money to the US to keep (as North Korea continues threatening both countries and both are weary of China's military ambitions in the region). Currently the US has around 75,000 to 80,000 (!) military personnel stationed in South Korea and Japan combined. The US is persistently deploying its military in the Middle East, including in Syria, Saudi Arabia and the waters near Iran. The US is the extreme exact opposite of isolationist. Go by what the US does, not what Trump campaigns on to win an election (he also has built zero miles of a new wall on the Mexico border thus far and is deporting fewer illegal immigrants than Obama did, again despite his rhetoric to the contrary).
refurb 7y ago
Not sure things have really changed. The US and EU countries have historically had disagreements and went their own ways. At least in terms of major repercussions, threats do happen, but it seems like compromises are the end result, usually done quietly with little press (e.g. the recent Canadian free trade agreement).
melenaboija 7y ago
I agree with you but, what about the USA not being aware of building a strong western economy? Economic politics from USA the last years has been quite protectionist and it seems in the coming future it will have to fight against countries with literally billions of people, so my feeling is western countries better stay together. Is not about fear but working class being tired, among other things, of big corporations avoiding taxes and they having to maintain the social structure.
- qaq 7y ago
  Long term I don't think western countries have much of a chance :(. Due to how political systems work in China vs the West China can easily invest in large scale long term projects and it costs them a tiny fraction to develop new or upgrade old infrastructure. Given a large enough time span this will give China a huge advantage.
  - Mirioron 7y ago
    But historically, authoritarian systems aren't very stable. China might very well collapse if they make some bad decisions. I think an authoritarian system is more likely to make bad decisions, because people that decide things are further from the ground, they have less information.
    - qaq 7y ago
      Given the rise of populism across the West ...
- sbacic 7y ago
  > Is not about fear but working class being tired, among other things, of big corporations avoiding taxes and they having to maintain the social structure. I should point out that this isn't a universal problem in Europe. For many countries in Europe, a bloated, inefficient and sometimes corrupt government is the reason why tax rates have to be so high and not multinationals avoiding taxes. Sure, taxing those multinationals _might_ make it easier on the working class, but it's just as likely that the government would find other ways to spend that money.
dangerface 7y ago
Europeans like me like America because they are very vocal about freedom and liberty but we are waking up to the reality that it's all talk. The USA behaves like Russia and China, they spy on foreigners, influence their elections, start unjustified wars for oil and generally have a very low regard for freedom and liberty outside of their soil. USA are not the good guys and Russia and China are not the bad guys they are just powerful, and USA are clearly loosing that power to Russia and China. > If so, is it that they're less fearful of reprisals (tariffs?) These sorts of threats only work on small poorly established countries and Europeans know it. We wrote the game Americans are playing and I hope they learn from our mistakes, or they will end up like us.
- ixtis7 7y ago
  China, perhaps. Russia is in the doldrums. The 'problem' with China is that it's an ethnostate, or wants to be. So in a practical sense most Westerners are better off fixing their allegiances to the US, for better or worse. At least then you can be part of the apparatus and not pre-emptively sidelined. I like some aspects of China vs. the US too, but China is for the Chinese, as they say.
  - solarhoma 7y ago
    Americans (and Europeans) are very used to the idea that no matter your race or creed you can be just as American as anyone else. We many times forget that not every country in the world acts this way. China being one of them.
    - kazagistar 7y ago
      (Just ignore the racism and discussion of "not real americans" and whitewashing of violence of minorities and horrifying concentration camps.)
      - solarhoma 7y ago
        Are you speaking of foreign citizens illegally gaining access to the United States? Which are placed in camps (call them concentration camps if you will but they in no way resemble what China is doing to the Uyghurs, i.e. a true concentration camp). And once in these camps they are processed for asylum, refugee status, etc? Yes, they may be stuck in these ‘horrifying’ camps which is not where they want to be. But they need to be vetted before entry into the US. And consider they are not being brainwashed against their ideals and religion as is happening in China.
mrtksn 7y ago
Right now I am again in Turkey after a while. Back then(like 5 years ago?), the USA was seen righteous but demanding country and if you go off-limits bad things can happen to you. Now Turkey acquired Russian made defence system s400 that was supposed to devastate the economy through embargoes. A few years ago a wealthy Iranian businessman living in Turkey was caught laundering billions of dollars through a Turkish state bank, He was well known for his connections in the Erdogan government. This was supposed to devastate the Turkish banking sector, bringing huge huge fines like those that French or British banks paid back in the day. These and many other actions were supposed to make Uncle Sam very angry and punish Erdogan. Nothing of significance happened. Actually, a year ago Trump plummeted the Turkish lira with few tweets but it was about a prisoner that was kept hostage that created political trouble to Trump. These days it's not a credible position to say "Erdogan, don't do that it may bring trouble", everyone who advocated this position is now a laughing stock. Europe seems to be behind the curve on this, they are still afraid to trade with Iran but I think that it will happen. They just need to find a way to do it while helping with the presidents career, it worked marvellously with Erdogan. Sometimes I think Erdogan has Jedi superpowers over Trump, it was amazing how He and Trump entered Syria despite of Pentagon and the US allies. Anyway, times are changing. I hope after the change we plateau in a nice position, I would not be thrilled to see Chinese or Russian style governments be the new de facto way of how the world works. The liberal waster world order was nice(though not perfect) when we had it, I dislike the current trends.
- adventured 7y ago
  > These and many other actions were supposed to make Uncle Sam very angry and punish Erdogan. Nothing of significance happened. Turkey was removed from the F35 program, for which they are a manufacturer. They are barred from purchasing the 100 F35s they wanted. They will lose that manufacturing position and the jobs that go with it. They have been demanding to still have the right to purchase the F35 jets - they will not be able to so long as they have the S400s. Turkey was manufacturing about 1,000 parts for the F35. That has now been reduced to 12 as of November. It will drop to zero during 2020. Losing access to the next generation of planes to upgrade their air force and losing their manufacturing role is significant, according to Turkey's own behavior and words on the matter (Erdogan states it very plainly that they are upset about it). The Turkish economy is a mess right now, having just finally climbed out of a recession. The unemployment rate had climbed from under 10% to 14% as of August. Clearly Turkey could use those manufacturing jobs and they know it.
Al-Khwarizmi 7y ago
Not an economist either, but my impression is that the USA is no longer seen as a serious, reliable ally. If you displease the USA economically you may get tariffs, but then, if you don't you may get tariffs too, because the President is tweeting in bad mood, or because America first, or whatever random reason. So why even bother? Also note that Brexit has increased the cohesion of the rest of the EU. The UK government with their ludicrous attitude has managed to make all other EU countries agree, euroskeptic movements have been largely discredited by the utter chaos that is Brexit, and there's also the fact that the UK itself always acted as a roadblock vetoing integration policies, and a pro-USA influence in the EU. So lately I'm seeing more teamplay and mutual support between EU countries than ever, which makes them stronger.

mc32 7y ago

I think it’s more like they’re trying to catch up with the internet. Kind of like in the US states are finally able to get Amazon to tax sales on their behalf —previously people had to self report; and the reporting rate was very very low...

pmontra 7y ago

The USA are entering an isolationist phase (it started with Obama, acccelerated by Trump) so it's natural that the rest of world is a little bit less concerned about their threats. Unfortunately the new possible friends look less friendly than the USA of the second half of '900.

corebit 7y ago
Please use the right words so that no one misunderstands the truth or thinks that you are lying. What the USA is doing is in no way isolationist. That is something completely different with no parallels or relations in any way. Using the word isolationist is misleading to the point of mistruth. It would be more accurate and representative of reality to say the USA appears to be acting more independently on the international stage. Isolation would imply the USA is not acting on the international stage at all.
- wil421 7y ago
  To add to your comment: Definition of isolationism : a policy of national isolation by abstention from alliances and other international political and economic relations Further reading. American Isolationism in the 1930s[1]. [1] https://history.state.gov/milestones/1937-1945/american-isolationism https://history.state.gov/milestones/1937-1945/american-isol...
- gbuk2013 7y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_First_(policy) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_First_(policy) as championed by the current US president. "America First refers to a foreign policy in the United States that generally emphasizes American nationalism, unilateralism, protectionism, and isolationism."
  - adventured 7y ago
    The US has 180 military bases around the world and isn't moving to close them by and large. The US is the center of NATO and, despite Trump's occasional rhetoric, is not moving to leave the alliance. The US is persistently using its naval projection capabilities to challenge China's territorial ambitions around Asia (including constantly sailing its navy through the illegally annexed South China Sea territory). Nobody else in the world can or will do that, including none of the fellow NATO members. The US has a very large military presence in South Korea and Japan, positions both countries are openly thankful for and willing to pay more money to the US to keep (as North Korea continues threatening both countries and both are weary of China's military ambitions in the region). Currently the US has around 75,000 to 80,000 (!) military personnel stationed in South Korea and Japan combined. The US is persistently deploying its military in the Middle East, including in Syria, Saudi Arabia and the waters near Iran. The US is the extreme exact opposite of isolationist. Go by what the US does, not what Trump campaigns on to win an election (he also has built zero miles of a new wall on the Mexico border thus far and is deporting fewer illegal immigrants than Obama did, again despite his rhetoric to the contrary).

refurb 7y ago

Not sure things have really changed. The US and EU countries have historically had disagreements and went their own ways. At least in terms of major repercussions, threats do happen, but it seems like compromises are the end result, usually done quietly with little press (e.g. the recent Canadian free trade agreement).

melenaboija 7y ago

I agree with you but, what about the USA not being aware of building a strong western economy? Economic politics from USA the last years has been quite protectionist and it seems in the coming future it will have to fight against countries with literally billions of people, so my feeling is western countries better stay together. Is not about fear but working class being tired, among other things, of big corporations avoiding taxes and they having to maintain the social structure.

qaq 7y ago
Long term I don't think western countries have much of a chance :(. Due to how political systems work in China vs the West China can easily invest in large scale long term projects and it costs them a tiny fraction to develop new or upgrade old infrastructure. Given a large enough time span this will give China a huge advantage.
- Mirioron 7y ago
  But historically, authoritarian systems aren't very stable. China might very well collapse if they make some bad decisions. I think an authoritarian system is more likely to make bad decisions, because people that decide things are further from the ground, they have less information.
  - qaq 7y ago
    Given the rise of populism across the West ...
sbacic 7y ago
> Is not about fear but working class being tired, among other things, of big corporations avoiding taxes and they having to maintain the social structure. I should point out that this isn't a universal problem in Europe. For many countries in Europe, a bloated, inefficient and sometimes corrupt government is the reason why tax rates have to be so high and not multinationals avoiding taxes. Sure, taxing those multinationals _might_ make it easier on the working class, but it's just as likely that the government would find other ways to spend that money.

dangerface 7y ago

Europeans like me like America because they are very vocal about freedom and liberty but we are waking up to the reality that it's all talk. The USA behaves like Russia and China, they spy on foreigners, influence their elections, start unjustified wars for oil and generally have a very low regard for freedom and liberty outside of their soil. USA are not the good guys and Russia and China are not the bad guys they are just powerful, and USA are clearly loosing that power to Russia and China. > If so, is it that they're less fearful of reprisals (tariffs?) These sorts of threats only work on small poorly established countries and Europeans know it. We wrote the game Americans are playing and I hope they learn from our mistakes, or they will end up like us.

ixtis7 7y ago
China, perhaps. Russia is in the doldrums. The 'problem' with China is that it's an ethnostate, or wants to be. So in a practical sense most Westerners are better off fixing their allegiances to the US, for better or worse. At least then you can be part of the apparatus and not pre-emptively sidelined. I like some aspects of China vs. the US too, but China is for the Chinese, as they say.
- solarhoma 7y ago
  Americans (and Europeans) are very used to the idea that no matter your race or creed you can be just as American as anyone else. We many times forget that not every country in the world acts this way. China being one of them.
  - kazagistar 7y ago
    (Just ignore the racism and discussion of "not real americans" and whitewashing of violence of minorities and horrifying concentration camps.)
    - solarhoma 7y ago
      Are you speaking of foreign citizens illegally gaining access to the United States? Which are placed in camps (call them concentration camps if you will but they in no way resemble what China is doing to the Uyghurs, i.e. a true concentration camp). And once in these camps they are processed for asylum, refugee status, etc? Yes, they may be stuck in these ‘horrifying’ camps which is not where they want to be. But they need to be vetted before entry into the US. And consider they are not being brainwashed against their ideals and religion as is happening in China.

mrtksn 7y ago

Right now I am again in Turkey after a while. Back then(like 5 years ago?), the USA was seen righteous but demanding country and if you go off-limits bad things can happen to you. Now Turkey acquired Russian made defence system s400 that was supposed to devastate the economy through embargoes. A few years ago a wealthy Iranian businessman living in Turkey was caught laundering billions of dollars through a Turkish state bank, He was well known for his connections in the Erdogan government. This was supposed to devastate the Turkish banking sector, bringing huge huge fines like those that French or British banks paid back in the day. These and many other actions were supposed to make Uncle Sam very angry and punish Erdogan. Nothing of significance happened. Actually, a year ago Trump plummeted the Turkish lira with few tweets but it was about a prisoner that was kept hostage that created political trouble to Trump. These days it's not a credible position to say "Erdogan, don't do that it may bring trouble", everyone who advocated this position is now a laughing stock. Europe seems to be behind the curve on this, they are still afraid to trade with Iran but I think that it will happen. They just need to find a way to do it while helping with the presidents career, it worked marvellously with Erdogan. Sometimes I think Erdogan has Jedi superpowers over Trump, it was amazing how He and Trump entered Syria despite of Pentagon and the US allies. Anyway, times are changing. I hope after the change we plateau in a nice position, I would not be thrilled to see Chinese or Russian style governments be the new de facto way of how the world works. The liberal waster world order was nice(though not perfect) when we had it, I dislike the current trends.

adventured 7y ago
> These and many other actions were supposed to make Uncle Sam very angry and punish Erdogan. Nothing of significance happened. Turkey was removed from the F35 program, for which they are a manufacturer. They are barred from purchasing the 100 F35s they wanted. They will lose that manufacturing position and the jobs that go with it. They have been demanding to still have the right to purchase the F35 jets - they will not be able to so long as they have the S400s. Turkey was manufacturing about 1,000 parts for the F35. That has now been reduced to 12 as of November. It will drop to zero during 2020. Losing access to the next generation of planes to upgrade their air force and losing their manufacturing role is significant, according to Turkey's own behavior and words on the matter (Erdogan states it very plainly that they are upset about it). The Turkish economy is a mess right now, having just finally climbed out of a recession. The unemployment rate had climbed from under 10% to 14% as of August. Clearly Turkey could use those manufacturing jobs and they know it.

Al-Khwarizmi 7y ago

Not an economist either, but my impression is that the USA is no longer seen as a serious, reliable ally. If you displease the USA economically you may get tariffs, but then, if you don't you may get tariffs too, because the President is tweeting in bad mood, or because America first, or whatever random reason. So why even bother? Also note that Brexit has increased the cohesion of the rest of the EU. The UK government with their ludicrous attitude has managed to make all other EU countries agree, euroskeptic movements have been largely discredited by the utter chaos that is Brexit, and there's also the fact that the UK itself always acted as a roadblock vetoing integration policies, and a pro-USA influence in the EU. So lately I'm seeing more teamplay and mutual support between EU countries than ever, which makes them stronger.