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What happens in that case is simple and obvious: the existing global trade barriers and protectionism will get worse. The US will move to lock Airbus and China

What happens in that case is simple and obvious: the existing global trade barriers and protectionism will get worse. The US will move to lock Airbus and China out of its massive, wildly profitable domestic airline market through protectionism. Which is exactly what China is guaranteed to do, either directly or indirectly, as it pushes its own airplane manufacturing efforts to the forefront in the pursuit of its economic self-interest. How many Soviet-made jet planes did the US buy from 1950 to 1990?

igravious 7y ago
The world was divided into two economic spheres during the Cold War. The difference now with that China is that though some would say that China is capitalist in name only (and they wouldn't be completely inaccurate) it is part of the WTO and thus part of the global capitalist system to some extent. Consider for a moment that exports account for a greater % of its GDP than does the US. Arguably China is much more like Japan of the 80s and Korea of the 90s than the soviets of the 50s. Now, if you look at the parts going into the Comac C919, a huge proportion of the parts are non-Chinese: https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2092656/china-schedules-maiden-flight-c919-passenger-jet-friday https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2092656/chin... Basically the tail, wings, radar cover, fuselage, interior, and assembly is Chinese – everything else is US and EU. (The C929 being co-developed with Russia has a greater percentage of parts home-made – this is exactly how China is ramping up its aircraft carrier development, methodically and incrementally bringing more and more expertise onshore). Buying the C919 when it hits mass production will be like buying a very familiar but cheaper Airbus or Boeing equivalent. Neither Japan nor Korea nor Russia have ever managed to pull this off. Who knows what will happen. Time will tell. Looking to the Soviet past is not a good indicator of what is coming down the pike imho.
gumby 7y ago
Well TBF the soviet planes always looked scary even on the ground and my experiences as a passenger on them were not reassuring either. I don't expect the same of 21st century Chinese aircraft.* In addition the US and EU may short-sightedly try to protect their aircraft manufacturers but US+EU are less than 45% of world GDP. Plenty of people will be perfectly satisfied with a Chinese plane when their only choices are all foreign manufacturers. * This isn't to say I want to be first -- I typically wait a few years before flying with a new model, though it's hardly a perfect heuristic: I had no idea the 737-Max wasn't really just another 737.
jariel 7y ago
"Which is exactly what China is guaranteed to do" China already de-facto does this in almost every market, so there's nothing new here, really. It'd be nice to have WTO rules actually followed, but I don't think it will be this way.

igravious 7y ago

The world was divided into two economic spheres during the Cold War. The difference now with that China is that though some would say that China is capitalist in name only (and they wouldn't be completely inaccurate) it is part of the WTO and thus part of the global capitalist system to some extent. Consider for a moment that exports account for a greater % of its GDP than does the US. Arguably China is much more like Japan of the 80s and Korea of the 90s than the soviets of the 50s. Now, if you look at the parts going into the Comac C919, a huge proportion of the parts are non-Chinese: https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2092656/china-schedules-maiden-flight-c919-passenger-jet-friday https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2092656/chin... Basically the tail, wings, radar cover, fuselage, interior, and assembly is Chinese – everything else is US and EU. (The C929 being co-developed with Russia has a greater percentage of parts home-made – this is exactly how China is ramping up its aircraft carrier development, methodically and incrementally bringing more and more expertise onshore). Buying the C919 when it hits mass production will be like buying a very familiar but cheaper Airbus or Boeing equivalent. Neither Japan nor Korea nor Russia have ever managed to pull this off. Who knows what will happen. Time will tell. Looking to the Soviet past is not a good indicator of what is coming down the pike imho.

gumby 7y ago

Well TBF the soviet planes always looked scary even on the ground and my experiences as a passenger on them were not reassuring either. I don't expect the same of 21st century Chinese aircraft.* In addition the US and EU may short-sightedly try to protect their aircraft manufacturers but US+EU are less than 45% of world GDP. Plenty of people will be perfectly satisfied with a Chinese plane when their only choices are all foreign manufacturers. * This isn't to say I want to be first -- I typically wait a few years before flying with a new model, though it's hardly a perfect heuristic: I had no idea the 737-Max wasn't really just another 737.

jariel 7y ago

"Which is exactly what China is guaranteed to do" China already de-facto does this in almost every market, so there's nothing new here, really. It'd be nice to have WTO rules actually followed, but I don't think it will be this way.