3 ms·
Scientists are not saying we'll all die in 12 years. What they are saying is that if we're not rapidly reducing emissions by then, we're unlikely to avoid a tip
by DennisP 7y ago
Scientists are not saying we'll all die in 12 years. What they are saying is that if we're not rapidly reducing emissions by then, we're unlikely to avoid a tipping point where the planet is emitting its own greenhouse gases, and will take things several degrees further with no more help from us.
A great book on the effects of climate change is Six Degrees by Mark Lynas, who read 3000 peer-reviewed papers on climate change and summarized them, with extensive references. It was published in 2007 but from what I've seen it's holding up well. Four degrees is grim; it won't make us go extinct but it's a horrible mess nonetheless.
One claim in the article was that food production will be fine. In fact, there are agricultural areas feeding hundreds of millions of people which are dependent on glacier melt during dry seasons. Those glaciers are going away. Another issue is that prime areas for growing grain are moving towards the poles; the new "best" areas are smaller and have poorer soil. We're also losing topsoil, from a combination of droughts with occasional torrential rainfalls.
I can't think of any other problem that people think is fine because it's not bad enough to make us go extinct. "Bad healthcare system? Well, it won't wipe us all out, we're fine." And we're experiencing effects of climate change already, e.g. with the forest fires in California.
- esarbe 7y agoWhy the downvotes? Deny much?
- Supermancho 7y agoThe strawmaning is obvious. ie "scientists say".
- DennisP 7y agoI didn't think it was necessary to google up a source for something so widely reported, but ok. I did oversimplify a bit, and corrected that in the comment above. Here's an article on the 12-year limit: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27082019/12-years-climate-change-explained-ipcc-science-solutions https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27082019/12-years-climate... And here's some information on the "tipping point" being somewhere between +1.5C and +2C: https://climatenexus.org/international/ipcc/ipcc-1-5c-report-planet-nearing-tipping-point/ https://climatenexus.org/international/ipcc/ipcc-1-5c-report... Right now we're around +1C, though we hit +1.2C in 2016: https://e360.yale.edu/digest/2016_hottest_year_on_record_wmo_12_degrees_c https://e360.yale.edu/digest/2016_hottest_year_on_record_wmo...