6 ms·

How is Japan a cautionary tale? They're one of the most (the most?) developed countries on earth, enjoy one of the highest standards of living and economically

How is Japan a cautionary tale? They're one of the most (the most?) developed countries on earth, enjoy one of the highest standards of living and economically punch well above their weight (based on population and access to resources). I don't see where the problem is... The vast majority of countries, even many western countries only wish they had Japan's 'problems'.

rm_-rf_slash 7y ago
Their demographics are horrific. More diapers are sold to adults than babies. People are worked to the bone to support the needs of a massive elderly population. Japan does a lot of things exceedingly well but demographics are one of those forces of history that are dammed near impossible to mitigate or circumvent without enormous cost, like trying to stop a train with your fist. EDIT: Just to be clear, my point is about demographics, not immigration. We have yet to see if productivity advancements such as robotics can fill the void, but either way, Japan has a significant struggle ahead of itself.
- toasterlovin 7y ago
  The Japanese are just the first country to tackle the demographic transition without gambling their entire culture and country on mass immigration. We don't know yet whether it's a bad bet. In favor of their approach: 1) the demographic transition will pass (since fertility is heritable), 2) increasing automation will probably reduce the demand for labor, 3) meanwhile life is still good for Japanese people.
  - opportune 7y ago
    "1) the demographic transition will pass (since fertility is heritable)" Citation needed. Sure fertility is well correlated with educational attainment which is likely somewhat "heritable" by proxy (social class, intelligence, lack of disabilities) but that doesn't mean the heritable effect will be large enough in aggregate.
    - toasterlovin 7y ago
      https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090513817302799 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S109051381...
  - theflyinghorse 7y ago
    I think Japanese approach is a good one specifically because of (2). Automation is something that is happening now as we speak and will only continue to accelerate. In fact the entirety of my career has been about reducing human labour or automating it entirely (within fintech, service industry, and IoT).
- remarkEon 7y ago
  This is begging the question a bit though, isn’t it? Low total fertility in Japan does not necessarily mean “make up the difference with immigrants”. There are other policy options to address that issue.
- mrb 7y ago
  The demographics of Japan, specifically an aging population and declining birth rate, is unfortunately where ALL modern countries are headed. Anyone who studies demographics knows this (in my part of the world we learn this in middle school). This is the natural result of healthcare improvements and first world parents who choose for various social reasons to have fewer and fewer kids.
claudeganon 7y ago
Subtract their position as the forward operating base for the US military in Asia and try telling this story again. While Japanese economic progress postwar was astonishing, it was entirely premised on them having favored status in the region. Few people know, for example, that the US forced Korea to purchase massive amounts of goods from Japan to rebuild its economy, essentially reinstating their former colonial relationship and stoking tensions that culminated in the Korean War. Japan is a cautionary take because it was entirely too dependent on using its favored status in American geopolitics to throw its weight around Asia-Pacific, as opposed to building meaningful, trade and immigration agreements with other countries in the regions. Now that US dominance is in retreat and the Chinese ascendant, they’re in a poor overall economic position to counter them.
- beat 7y ago
  I think it's rather an oversimplification to say that five years of reconstruction of a totally shattered Japan caused the Korean War. Or to take any lessons from the immediate postwar period and use them to explain the state of Japan 75 years later.
  - asdff 7y ago
    At least as far as development goes, the United States supercharged the postwar economy in Japan which directly lead to where it is today. If, say Indiana got the same investment, it too would look like Japan today with high speed maglev rail criss crossing like a fisherman's net and be a dominant position in high tech manufacturing.
    - beat 7y ago
      And if we bombed Indiana to the brink of collapse and burned Indianapolis to the ground and nuked Terre Haute, maybe we'd do that.
- raxxorrax 7y ago
  Products from Japan are sold in many countries and usually have a good reputation. The country has many trade relations and foreign investments all over the planet. They are solidly in the top 5 of trading countries. Certainly the geo-strategic position was favorable, but I think this is quite the exaggeration.

rm_-rf_slash 7y ago

Their demographics are horrific. More diapers are sold to adults than babies. People are worked to the bone to support the needs of a massive elderly population. Japan does a lot of things exceedingly well but demographics are one of those forces of history that are dammed near impossible to mitigate or circumvent without enormous cost, like trying to stop a train with your fist. EDIT: Just to be clear, my point is about demographics, not immigration. We have yet to see if productivity advancements such as robotics can fill the void, but either way, Japan has a significant struggle ahead of itself.

toasterlovin 7y ago
The Japanese are just the first country to tackle the demographic transition without gambling their entire culture and country on mass immigration. We don't know yet whether it's a bad bet. In favor of their approach: 1) the demographic transition will pass (since fertility is heritable), 2) increasing automation will probably reduce the demand for labor, 3) meanwhile life is still good for Japanese people.
- opportune 7y ago
  "1) the demographic transition will pass (since fertility is heritable)" Citation needed. Sure fertility is well correlated with educational attainment which is likely somewhat "heritable" by proxy (social class, intelligence, lack of disabilities) but that doesn't mean the heritable effect will be large enough in aggregate.
  - toasterlovin 7y ago
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090513817302799 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S109051381...
- theflyinghorse 7y ago
  I think Japanese approach is a good one specifically because of (2). Automation is something that is happening now as we speak and will only continue to accelerate. In fact the entirety of my career has been about reducing human labour or automating it entirely (within fintech, service industry, and IoT).
remarkEon 7y ago
This is begging the question a bit though, isn’t it? Low total fertility in Japan does not necessarily mean “make up the difference with immigrants”. There are other policy options to address that issue.
mrb 7y ago
The demographics of Japan, specifically an aging population and declining birth rate, is unfortunately where ALL modern countries are headed. Anyone who studies demographics knows this (in my part of the world we learn this in middle school). This is the natural result of healthcare improvements and first world parents who choose for various social reasons to have fewer and fewer kids.

claudeganon 7y ago

Subtract their position as the forward operating base for the US military in Asia and try telling this story again. While Japanese economic progress postwar was astonishing, it was entirely premised on them having favored status in the region. Few people know, for example, that the US forced Korea to purchase massive amounts of goods from Japan to rebuild its economy, essentially reinstating their former colonial relationship and stoking tensions that culminated in the Korean War. Japan is a cautionary take because it was entirely too dependent on using its favored status in American geopolitics to throw its weight around Asia-Pacific, as opposed to building meaningful, trade and immigration agreements with other countries in the regions. Now that US dominance is in retreat and the Chinese ascendant, they’re in a poor overall economic position to counter them.

beat 7y ago
I think it's rather an oversimplification to say that five years of reconstruction of a totally shattered Japan caused the Korean War. Or to take any lessons from the immediate postwar period and use them to explain the state of Japan 75 years later.
- asdff 7y ago
  At least as far as development goes, the United States supercharged the postwar economy in Japan which directly lead to where it is today. If, say Indiana got the same investment, it too would look like Japan today with high speed maglev rail criss crossing like a fisherman's net and be a dominant position in high tech manufacturing.
  - beat 7y ago
    And if we bombed Indiana to the brink of collapse and burned Indianapolis to the ground and nuked Terre Haute, maybe we'd do that.
raxxorrax 7y ago
Products from Japan are sold in many countries and usually have a good reputation. The country has many trade relations and foreign investments all over the planet. They are solidly in the top 5 of trading countries. Certainly the geo-strategic position was favorable, but I think this is quite the exaggeration.