3 ms·

> People get killed for far less. Sincerely though, if not pop culture, what is this prediction based on? What base rate information do you have about crimina

> People get killed for far less. Sincerely though, if not pop culture, what is this prediction based on? What base rate information do you have about criminals who are extrajudicially executed? What information about who in the criminal underworld knows how much are you conditioning on in order to get a distribution that integrates out to >0.5 here, as opposed to >0.9, or <0.1? Just based on what’s publicly accessible, it seems totally implausible even to put a educated guess on the odds of something like this.

jacquesm 7y ago
I have - or rather had - a cousin who got a bullet in the back of his head courtesy of his best friend for less than $100K. So my base rate may be a bit higher than average but it definitely isn't zero and we're talking very large amounts of money here. Let's turn that around: how many hard core criminals do you know that end up living to a ripe old age? Even Bulger didn't make it and he tried real hard. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46036058 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46036058
- Klinky 7y ago
  People get shot over things that amount to less than a minimum wage paycheck, that doesn't mean she is dead. Your example of Bulger is bad, he was 89 at the time of his death, that's 10 years older than the avg European male's lifespan. If John McAfee's still alive, she could also still be alive.
  - jacquesm 7y ago
    > People get shot over things that amount to less than a minimum wage paycheck, that doesn't mean she is dead. No, just that there is a fair chance. > Your example of Bulger is bad, he was 89 at the time of his death, that's 10 years older than the avg European male's lifespan. My point was: and yet he didn't make it. His end wasn't exactly peaceful by any stretch of the imagination and he was an outlier for living that long. He only managed because he laid low for a long time (16 years!), if not for that he'd have been killed in the same manner or worse long before. Bulger is a bad example for only one reason: he turned information on the Mafia over to the authorities, which is a bit of a career limiting move for a criminal. Note that between his arrival in the penitentiary where he was murdered and his demise only a scant few hours passed. But still, as you correctly state, he lived to 89, which is older than most and that's why he's exceptional, a hardened criminal, former gang leader able to live to that age is noteworthy.
    - Klinky 7y ago
      We agree she could be dead or end up dead over this, but that could be said for any criminal scammer. Madoff isn't dead, and he ran the biggest scam in the world. There is nothing unique about this case, or any specific piece of evidence you can point to that indicates her death, other than a hunch. Bulger lasted 16 years laying low, why not her?
      - raincom 7y ago
        Based on court documents, Ruja left to Athens, where she was accompanied by Russians. Now it is anyone's guess.
krageon 7y ago
People get killed for far less if all involved are very poor. As you go up the socio-economic ladder the price becomes higher, so it makes sense that different people have wildly differing experiences.

jacquesm 7y ago

I have - or rather had - a cousin who got a bullet in the back of his head courtesy of his best friend for less than $100K. So my base rate may be a bit higher than average but it definitely isn't zero and we're talking very large amounts of money here. Let's turn that around: how many hard core criminals do you know that end up living to a ripe old age? Even Bulger didn't make it and he tried real hard. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46036058 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46036058

Klinky 7y ago
People get shot over things that amount to less than a minimum wage paycheck, that doesn't mean she is dead. Your example of Bulger is bad, he was 89 at the time of his death, that's 10 years older than the avg European male's lifespan. If John McAfee's still alive, she could also still be alive.
- jacquesm 7y ago
  > People get shot over things that amount to less than a minimum wage paycheck, that doesn't mean she is dead. No, just that there is a fair chance. > Your example of Bulger is bad, he was 89 at the time of his death, that's 10 years older than the avg European male's lifespan. My point was: and yet he didn't make it. His end wasn't exactly peaceful by any stretch of the imagination and he was an outlier for living that long. He only managed because he laid low for a long time (16 years!), if not for that he'd have been killed in the same manner or worse long before. Bulger is a bad example for only one reason: he turned information on the Mafia over to the authorities, which is a bit of a career limiting move for a criminal. Note that between his arrival in the penitentiary where he was murdered and his demise only a scant few hours passed. But still, as you correctly state, he lived to 89, which is older than most and that's why he's exceptional, a hardened criminal, former gang leader able to live to that age is noteworthy.
  - Klinky 7y ago
    We agree she could be dead or end up dead over this, but that could be said for any criminal scammer. Madoff isn't dead, and he ran the biggest scam in the world. There is nothing unique about this case, or any specific piece of evidence you can point to that indicates her death, other than a hunch. Bulger lasted 16 years laying low, why not her?
    - raincom 7y ago
      Based on court documents, Ruja left to Athens, where she was accompanied by Russians. Now it is anyone's guess.

krageon 7y ago

People get killed for far less if all involved are very poor. As you go up the socio-economic ladder the price becomes higher, so it makes sense that different people have wildly differing experiences.