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> it's great investment long term even if it crashes temporarily. That's not really true outside the US. And in fact it's not even true for the smaller cap sto
by vladimirralev 7y ago
> it's great investment long term even if it crashes temporarily.
That's not really true outside the US. And in fact it's not even true for the smaller cap stocks in the US. The Japanese stock market being the most cited foreign example of the opposite. Pretty much everywhere outside the US the stock market is very vulnerable. Odds are this will come to the US sooner or later.
They can QE forever to feed the demand, however it's on the whim of a few powerful people when and how some shortage will occur. Stocks grew 20% YoY with flat earnings in the last few years. Price discovery and market signals are dying, but they are dying for both directions up or down.
Many analysts expect asset prices and income inequality to be a major topic of debate this election and we don't know yet if Fed policy will be at the crosshairs. Either way social justice impulse will be stronger against the tech giants either thru cancel culture or outright riots.
- xiphias2 7y agoYou’re right, I’m in the gold / silver / Bitcoin believer minority, I don’t see any other safe place for my money long term, as I believe that those are the only things that can’t be manipulated easily long term.
- H8crilA 7y agoGold is a leveraged bet on negative yielding bonds these days: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYNCpWo7Ucg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYNCpWo7Ucg It is "manipulated" to the same extent as anything else.
- xiphias2 7y agoAs cash is too easy to print, I would still prefer to look at gold/SNP500 ratio, gold/house price or other gold/stock ratios (even though you're right about the correlation between gold price and inverse bond yields). Of course as technology is getting faster and creating more value, and people are moving to cities, it's hard to get a correct valuation, but still gold seems undervalued compared to these other asset classes.
- H8crilA 7y agoI agree.
- fma 7y agoJack Bogle goes as far as saying you don't need to own international stocks. If I recall he says that the US has a innovative and growth mindset, and is stable... So we would always be growing in the long term. https://www.investmentnews.com/article/20170429/FREE/170429919/john-bogle-says-investors-dont-need-to-own-international-stocks https://www.investmentnews.com/article/20170429/FREE/1704299...
- hogFeast 7y agoNot diversifying by geography is one of the most risky decisions possible - https://www.bridgewater.com/research-library/daily-observations/geographic-diversification-can-be-a-lifesaver/Geographic_Diversification_Can_Be_a_Lifesaver.pdf https://www.bridgewater.com/research-library/daily-observati... - and it is one of the biggest mistakes that most investors are making right now (it happens every time). Be clear: you are betting if you take Bogle's advice. You are going all-in. If you know what you are doing, great...but that is probably not the case.