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End of a Decade
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- newshorts 7y agoThe comments about neo liberalization at the end make me wonder if the “20s” will be remember as an era of Anti globalization and nationalism. We saw it start to take hold about halfway through this decade and I wonder if the trend will continue.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- WaxProlix 7y agoThere are other types of reaction to neoliberalism (and the concentration of power in a handful of people that seems to be its hallmark in this context). They seem to have far less steam than nationalism, but there's a few other ways things could go. Mostly nasty, I suspect, though :(
- isostatic 7y agoRising nationalism in the 20s and 30s eventually leading to major armed conflict from 39 onwards.
- pjc50 7y agoI remember left-antiglobalisation (against free movement of goods) being huge in the late 90s and early 00s. The days of huge clashes at the G20 meetings. This eventually got suppressed by the police, and now we've shifted to "right"-antiglobalisation with a very different focus against free movement of people and the use of trade policy against national enemies.
- buboard 7y agoMy crystal ball says remote work will revolutionize lifestyles, we ll see huge changes in health tech (long overdue), and in governance. Nomadism is a 2010s trend and ,even if not scalable, it shows the way. The renationalisation experiments did not bear fruit, i think it s becoming increasingly evident. I think the 20s will be a good time for freedoms
- thundergolfer 7y agoThere's a lot of.. weird stuff in here. - The idea that Apple, Amazon, and Google entering into healthcare would be taking healthcare services "away from centralized gatekeepers." What? - Two lines about Climate Change in the whole post, and the 2nd is "We’ll remember this as the decade of unfortunate procrastination." That's quite the understatement. - "We’ve also had more equal access to the good parts of economic growth." This needs explanation. Who is "we"? What are the "good parts" and the "bad parts" of growth? - "Everything has gone from centralized to distributed." No, not everything. In many important ways the opposite has happened. eg. corporate conglomeration.
- amursft 7y agothanks for the critical feedback and thoughts. as another poster put it, perhaps disintermediation would be a better word to describe it. Individuals now have power to do things that they didn't before, or for much cheaper. Can see this happening in healthcare once 'big tech' is involved. It will be good for healthcare costs at least in the United States. any suggestions to improve it? or do you think the decade will be remembered for totally different things?
- bobthepanda 7y agoDecentralization in healthcare is basically not going to happen unless the US stops giving tax exemptions for employer-provided health insurance.
- barce 7y agoYou mention gatekeepers going away, but aren't the barriers to doing information warfare held by the same gatekeepers (the monied and the state)?
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- ptrinh 7y agoBitcoin was introduced in 2009-2010.
- larnmar 7y agoI feel like decades stopped having distinctive identities somewhere round 2000. Previous decade-by-decade changes from the 50s to the 60s to the 70s to the 80s to the 90s were, it must be admitted, mostly aesthetic rather than being the “fundamental changes in society” that people like to pretend — people in general didn’t become greedier in 1980 and less greedy again in 1990. But there were huge changes in the aesthetics of everything — clothes, interiors, graphic design, music, cars etc. What has changed since 2004, in the actual physical world?
- alexanderchr 7y agoAlmost ten years old article on this, but still (more?) relevant https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2012/01/prisoners-of-style-201201 https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2012/01/prisoners-of-style-...
- tingletech 7y agobesides people walking around looking at little pieces of glass and these stupid scooters littered around everywhere?
- ericd 7y agoThe iPhone was introduced in 2007. I’d say that had some pretty large effects. Reusable rockets. The explosion of social media. Electric cars. A number of other things.
- buboard 7y agoFacebook stopped growing around 2013. I think that trend is if anything dwindling. electric cars and rockets are niche- the big change there is the digitisation of work which makes cars obsolete.
- ericd 7y agoWell, the question was what had changed since 2004. FB gained more than a billion users since then. Electric cars and reusable rockets are niche now, but picking up steam quickly. Seems pretty safe to say that those were watershed moments. Remote work might be taking off, but I haven't seen the evidence of it accelerating. Seems like most companies like it more in theory than in practice. I'd love to be wrong about that, though.
- gsich 7y agoThe decade is not over. The gregorian calendar has no year "0", so decades start at for example: 2011-01-01 till 2020-12-31. I don't use it that way either.
- summonedskul 7y agoWrong - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010s The 2010s is the current decade in the Gregorian calendar that began on 1 January 2010, and will end on 31 December 2019.
- gsich 7y agoNot wrong. Gregorian starts at year 1. If you want a decade to be 10 years, it can't end with 10, that would be only 9 years. Daily usage differs from that definition of course, but that's not the point.
- summonedskul 7y agoNo you are wrong - The word 'decade' is not tied to any specific set of 10 years, so you can mark off any set of 10 years and call it a decade: 2000-2009, or 2005-2014, for example. By your logic the year 2000 should be part of the 90's which it wasn't.
- gsich 7y agoI'm not wrong. Read the "specs". >By your logic the year 2000 should be part of the 90's which it wasn't. It was according to the gregorian calendar.
- summonedskul 7y agobut you're still wrong - this decade ends at the last moment of 2019..that's the agreed popular opinion - didn't you even read the Wikipedia link?
- 7y ago
- chansiky 7y agoI think for sure the rise of app and web economies have been the defining characteristic of this decade. They have had an unexpected monopoly on our attentions. From memes, to changes in consumer behavior, to social uprisings, to mass shootings, to instagram influencers, to determining elections, it would take a lot to convince me that there was not a single greater force that influenced us more in the past ten years than the side-effects of what came out of a few internet companies. Its almost hard to imagine what life was like before things like twitter, uber, spotify, youtube, and to think that they were either only a few years old or barely taking their first steps at the beginning of the decade is mind-blowing. In hindsight, a lot of people might claim they saw it coming, but a lot of the things I see today are things I would have never predicted the "future" to be like, and were never things I ever heard anyone predict prior to the events happening. Seriously, all these amazon boxes everywhere? ... how many people saw that coming? For sure none of the real estate developers who poured millions into building all those shopping malls now lifeless like the coral reef on a warm 2019 summer day. As for whats to come in the 2020's? clearly - flying cars, jet-packs, laser guns, self cleaning rooms, holograms, shiny pants, and robot servants. /s
- varjag 7y ago> Its almost hard to imagine what life was like before things like twitter, uber, spotify, youtube, and to think that they were either only a few years old or barely taking their first steps at the beginning of the decade is mind-blowing. All things you listed were founded in the previous decade, and indeed nothing in tech of this decade would be shocking to someone in 2009. Based on this I expect the next decade will also see very little innovation.
- randomsearch 7y ago2020s = VR
- rhlsthrm 7y agoDo you think VR will be more mainstream than AR? I tend to believe that once AR becomes really good it will be more mainstream than VR because it can integrate with your normal life and provide useful things like a HUD and also crazy cool things like interactive holograms.
- randomsearch 7y ago> It turned out that someone had stolen my card information and bought two copies from their own Amazon listing Far more likely is that you've stored those card details and your Amazon account was compromised, internally or externally.
- unnouinceput 7y agoQuote: "What should we take away from the 2010 decade?" Take that is not over yet, the 2010's will end in over a year from now, so still plenty things to happen inside this particular decade.
- csomar 7y ago> With 6 billion people on the planet Did he just miss 1.7 billion people?
- shrikant 7y agoHe probably learned the 6 billion people fact sometime during high school and has never updated it since then. (I may be projecting, as I'm often guilty of this especially w.r.t global geography)
- thundergolfer 7y agoYes, yes he did. To be honest this post is riddled with mistakes and weird assertions. It’s not very good.
- g4d 7y agoI'm not sure I'd go as far as to say that it's not very good and anyway it's provided some good discussion here, so I've enjoyed that.
- amursft 7y agoHaha, thanks. I did. Do you mind if I incorporate your point? I was speaking a bit colloquially, but the correct number would be better.
- phoe-krk 7y ago> Everything has gone from centralized to distributed. Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google like this. (Microsoft also does.) The illusion of decentralization given by "you don't need a publisher, you need Amazon" and "you don't need marketing, you need a Facebook page" is one of their most successful creations. We haven't gone decentralized. We've given even more power into singular technology monopolies and eliminated many of the intermediaries that gave us actual choice of who to ask for publishing and how to market our products. Now it's "sell it on Amazon"/"market it on Facebook" or you just don't exist at all.
- pjc50 7y agoI think he should have written "disintermediated" for those examples. There are now fewer intermediaries, maybe only a single layer - but the companies in that layer occupy almost all of it. You can publish books without having to worry about publishing and distribution - if you go through the publication-and-distribution vertically integrated monolith.
- phoe-krk 7y agoI agree. Publishing overall is substantially easier. Publishing without going through the publishing monopoly is substantially harder though.
- Nasrudith 7y agoThis may be a minor distinction but it is easier to publish but harder to get reach when disconnected. This is important in a "allowed to try" way. Generally for books and music the answer for "should I sell on Amazon, Apple, Barnes and Noble, Soundcloud, or my own website" is "yes". In addition to convenience people are understandably leery about where they put their credit card info and the financial infastructure hasn't generally caught up although there are a few "one-off" credit card number generators.
- amursft 7y agoYeah, this would totally have been a better / more nuanced way to put it.
- mirekrusin 7y agoTinder in the main bullet points but not cryptocurrency/blockchain (hype or not, whatever, it was big thing throughout the decade), the "big bang" of deep learning or quantum computers?
- thundergolfer 7y agoCrypto is not a normal part of “everyday living”, which is what those bullet points are concerned with.
- mirekrusin 7y agoSays who? Number of just bitcoin users is more than order of magnitude higher than number of users of tinder.
- thundergolfer 7y agoReally? I would not have guessed that at all, seeing as basically everyone I know my age has used a Tinder-like dating app, but maybe 1-2 have used bitcoin as everyday currency. Got some figures?
- Cougher 7y agoI can't help but think that the end of printed instructions can be shoehorned in here somehow. If I do get printed instructions with something, they're virtually unusable either because the type is far too small to read, or because it's all hieroglyphs without words. When I look for instructions online, I'm finding videos more and more often, even for something like a recipe.
- kohlerm 7y agoThat picture looks like the Saarschleife in Germany.
- kahirsch 7y agohttps://unsplash.com/s/photos/star%C3%BD-hrad%2C-nezbudsk%C3%A1-l%C3%BA%C4%8Dka%2C-slovakia https://unsplash.com/s/photos/star%C3%BD-hrad%2C-nezbudsk%C3...
- agentultra 7y agoTeaching our kids about Siri and Alexa... and how to subvert it. By not participating. Reading books. Enjoying time together at a park. Finding mirth in games and late night conversations. By teaching them to pick up their own groceries, shop local, use the library, see local performances, and enjoying our neighbourhood. If 2010’s were all about staying in and binging on Netflix I hope the next decade will be about getting out and letting our computers gather dust.
- Mediterraneo10 7y agoMore likely, wearable computing and augmented reality will allow people to get out of the house and to the parks or local performances, while still remaining fully jacked into the social-media world. As for books and libraries: when libraries are upgraded these days, or new ones are built, the new buildings focus heavily on providing people with connectivity and games, with books relegated to an afterthought that you have to request from closed stacks (i.e. you have to already know what you want and patiently wait for it to arrive). I don’t envy any parent trying to bring their children up with 20th-century notions of reading.
- SamuelAdams 7y agoThe author's later point is that this may not be an option. "Where a home just has one of these [AI / connected home]. Like an in-sink trash disposal, or an answering machine." Consider phones. In the early 2000's, most people had a cell phone. By 2010, most people have a smart phone. These devices are much more capable than their predecessors. I've read books (Hans Rosling, Factfulness) that suggested communities with access to smartphones have a 3% GDP increase over communities with cell phones. That number may seem small, but remember it's a global scale. 3% is a significant amount. The current state of AI is where cell phones were 20 years ago. We may get to a point where not using AI (as you said, "not participating") may put yourself at a clear disadvantage - you will not be as capable as your peers. It's sort of like those 50-60 year olds in the workforce who refuse to use a computer. They've always done their job a particular way, but they are not as productive as some of the younger hires who use computers. Then they are shocked when they are laid off - their current (disadvantaged) output is far below what is expected, since technology has become ubiquitous and people expect you to be able to use a computer to do your job.
- rvz 7y ago> The healthcare system is broken in ways that are hard to fix. So we need more of the same old FAANG guys to 'fix' this? Do we really want our health data to be controlled in the hands of these FAANG companies because they are able to disrupt anything they touch? I hope not. > What should we take away from the 2010 decade? 2010s: Was the discovery of democratising access to anything by 'programming an app for that' with collecting user data from a tool called a smartphone, which brought in a surge of unprofitable app / web companies IPOing everywhere and crazy tech companies raising ridiculous funding rounds with huge losses with little to no profit. I cannot see this continuing on into the 2020s. So my so-called 'machine learning crystal ball' forecasts something else. 2020s: Will have a tech crash due to this hyperactivity of these startups which many of them will shutdown. The transportation market will start to shift to carbon neutral alternatives over fossil-fuel based solutions in the late 2020s. AR will beat VR to consumer mainstream and will overlay our daily lives with wearables. Cryptocurrency becomes a financial alternative in the mid-2020s. Privacy will be more controversial and questioned by many users as we keep giving it away to be collected by FAANG companies and we start to have information which can be easily faked making it easy to spread disinformation, ie. mainstream fake news. Now if you excuse me, I'm going to buy this cryptocurrency dip and to prepare my tinfoil rucksack and to continue to buy multiple newspapers from the local shop across the street. Hopefully that should be my new-decade's resolution.
- buboard 7y ago> Do we really want our health data to be controlled in the hands of these FAANG Then we should stop deliberately giving it to them? E.g. in the name of privacy, Google has secured health data access for its own machine learning systems , to the exclusion of everyone else who is working on health ML. Laws like HIPPA were meant to facilitate the anonymous sharing of health data, not to block it. Health feels like a hugely lost opportunity exactly because nobody wants to touch that data with the current legal repercusions.