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The world goes through cycles of peace and violence. We are due for the next cycle of violence to rival WW2, if not even more so. We have forgotten and are una

The world goes through cycles of peace and violence. We are due for the next cycle of violence to rival WW2, if not even more so. We have forgotten and are unable to imagine when more than a hundred thousand are killed in a single day. But those days will come again and very soon. The next war will be (pretty much) the West against the Rest. The whole of the West has a smaller population and less manufacturing capacity than China alone.

sideshowb 7y ago
Unless both sides find trade more profitable. I think it's more likely the next big war will be fought over fresh water.
- arethuza 7y ago
  "The world at the beginning of the 20th century seemed for most of its inhabitants stable and relatively benign. Globalizing, booming economies married to technological breakthroughs seemed to promise a better world for most people." From the description of Niall Ferguson's The War of the World.
gumby 7y ago
> The next war will be (pretty much) the West against the Rest Because all the countries of the West think alike and because everyone who isn’t thinks alike? This sounds like those politicians who ask “but what do the minorities want?”
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
throwaway1777 7y ago
Predictions with no data or reasoning to back them up are worthless, especially when there’s no skin in the game.
Scapeghost 7y ago
If you haven't noticed by now, the world is a plutocracy/oligarchy. It hasn't been about nations for a long time, but the rich and powerful people who influence them. Many of them aren't even elected officials. See Trump and Russia, Saudi Arabia and Khashoggi, the American citizens beaten up by Erdogan's bodyguards on American soil, the UAE and Sheikha Latifa, American corporations kowtowing to China, the US ambassador's wife who got away with murdering a UK teen, Jeffrey Epstein and his private island of underage prostitution for the cream of society's crop, and the many other cases where the personal whims of the elite few override sovereign laws. Those people literally have access to everything that human civilization has to offer, and they're not going to ruin their playground.
- Mirioron 7y ago
  Hasn't it always been like this though? At least nowadays they don't claim to just be better humans (nobility).
  - Scapeghost 7y ago
    Indeed, the ruling class never stopped ruling. But this is the first time in human history, when they can go anywhere, do anything, to anyone, at anytime, without having to worry about national borders etc. Money is the universal differentiator now, and anybody of any nation or race can have it. Until you piss off someone else who also has money, then connections come into play, then the might of arms.
    - charlesism 7y ago
      This comment seems strained. A history book would neither back up the claim about unfettered travel, nor the claim about corruption. The parent comment actually seems reasonable to me. It really wouldn’t take much escalation for a trade war to turn into a shooting war between, at least China and America.
      - Scapeghost 7y ago
        > A history book would neither back up the claim about unfettered travel, nor the claim about corruption. I don't think any ruler would have been able to easily hop to another continent on a whim for an orgy with a wide selection of sex slaves and be back home by next dawn, before the advent of instantaneous communications and jet planes. The point was that the people who command nations have access to a previously unprecedented level of luxury which would be ruined if the world wasn't largely at peace.
adventured 7y ago
> The whole of the West has a smaller population and less manufacturing capacity than China alone. The US + Germany have a larger combined manufacturing capacity than China does, in a population about 30% that of China. With the population gap you can then throw in France, Britain, Italy, Spain, Mexico, Canada and far exceed the manufacturing capacity of China (which has about 20%-22% of global manufacturing output and declining as a share).
forgetfulusr 7y ago
This sounds like FUD, and the more people believe it the closer it comes to being realized. It has been increasing lately. Some great times to push for new rules/censorship for the internet in the name of safety I assume.
- Melting_Harps 7y ago
  Or maybe you guys in the Valley could stop offering your labour to FAANG, who then sell that information for profit to Intelligence agencies and go back to the cypherpunk and cryptoanarchist roots of the Valley and help create an alternative? The recent episode of Silicon Valley was so typical of my short stay there of the collective mindset (#Tethics) in the Valley, which was just a summer; my family is actually from San Jose (multi-generational), but they have since divested and left to the South (where I'm from) for good because of the BS politics and police state that emerged from what was once a really awesome culture in the late 60-80s and less so but still decent mid to late 90s. I personally moved to Boulder and rode a decent wave, but to be honest with Google coming here and a lot of its cohort following in masse with the large campus it feels about the same now.

sideshowb 7y ago

Unless both sides find trade more profitable. I think it's more likely the next big war will be fought over fresh water.

arethuza 7y ago
"The world at the beginning of the 20th century seemed for most of its inhabitants stable and relatively benign. Globalizing, booming economies married to technological breakthroughs seemed to promise a better world for most people." From the description of Niall Ferguson's The War of the World.

gumby 7y ago

> The next war will be (pretty much) the West against the Rest Because all the countries of the West think alike and because everyone who isn’t thinks alike? This sounds like those politicians who ask “but what do the minorities want?”

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

throwaway1777 7y ago

Predictions with no data or reasoning to back them up are worthless, especially when there’s no skin in the game.

Scapeghost 7y ago

If you haven't noticed by now, the world is a plutocracy/oligarchy. It hasn't been about nations for a long time, but the rich and powerful people who influence them. Many of them aren't even elected officials. See Trump and Russia, Saudi Arabia and Khashoggi, the American citizens beaten up by Erdogan's bodyguards on American soil, the UAE and Sheikha Latifa, American corporations kowtowing to China, the US ambassador's wife who got away with murdering a UK teen, Jeffrey Epstein and his private island of underage prostitution for the cream of society's crop, and the many other cases where the personal whims of the elite few override sovereign laws. Those people literally have access to everything that human civilization has to offer, and they're not going to ruin their playground.

Mirioron 7y ago
Hasn't it always been like this though? At least nowadays they don't claim to just be better humans (nobility).
- Scapeghost 7y ago
  Indeed, the ruling class never stopped ruling. But this is the first time in human history, when they can go anywhere, do anything, to anyone, at anytime, without having to worry about national borders etc. Money is the universal differentiator now, and anybody of any nation or race can have it. Until you piss off someone else who also has money, then connections come into play, then the might of arms.
  - charlesism 7y ago
    This comment seems strained. A history book would neither back up the claim about unfettered travel, nor the claim about corruption. The parent comment actually seems reasonable to me. It really wouldn’t take much escalation for a trade war to turn into a shooting war between, at least China and America.
    - Scapeghost 7y ago
      > A history book would neither back up the claim about unfettered travel, nor the claim about corruption. I don't think any ruler would have been able to easily hop to another continent on a whim for an orgy with a wide selection of sex slaves and be back home by next dawn, before the advent of instantaneous communications and jet planes. The point was that the people who command nations have access to a previously unprecedented level of luxury which would be ruined if the world wasn't largely at peace.

adventured 7y ago

> The whole of the West has a smaller population and less manufacturing capacity than China alone. The US + Germany have a larger combined manufacturing capacity than China does, in a population about 30% that of China. With the population gap you can then throw in France, Britain, Italy, Spain, Mexico, Canada and far exceed the manufacturing capacity of China (which has about 20%-22% of global manufacturing output and declining as a share).

forgetfulusr 7y ago

This sounds like FUD, and the more people believe it the closer it comes to being realized. It has been increasing lately. Some great times to push for new rules/censorship for the internet in the name of safety I assume.

Melting_Harps 7y ago
Or maybe you guys in the Valley could stop offering your labour to FAANG, who then sell that information for profit to Intelligence agencies and go back to the cypherpunk and cryptoanarchist roots of the Valley and help create an alternative? The recent episode of Silicon Valley was so typical of my short stay there of the collective mindset (#Tethics) in the Valley, which was just a summer; my family is actually from San Jose (multi-generational), but they have since divested and left to the South (where I'm from) for good because of the BS politics and police state that emerged from what was once a really awesome culture in the late 60-80s and less so but still decent mid to late 90s. I personally moved to Boulder and rode a decent wave, but to be honest with Google coming here and a lot of its cohort following in masse with the large campus it feels about the same now.