3 ms·

Peter Schiff: "In many ways, it's going to be worse than the Depression."

15 points by fiaz 18y ago

tptacek 18y ago
How seriously do you take someone who advocates for the dissolution of the Federal Reserve? Pronouncements like this are kind of this guy's schtick.
- gaius 18y ago
  I'd say it depends on what his reasons are how seriously he should be taken.
- kingkongrevenge 18y ago
  Schiff is an extremely successful and wealthy investor. Considering how everyone's panties get all wet at the mention of Buffet I thought that was all it took to get props.
- tl 18y ago
  Schiff isn't alone in his belief that the federal reserve was a bad idea. The Fed is unpopular enough to make anti-central banking videos like "Money as Debt" popular and well received. Woodrow Wilson (who signed the Federal Reserve Act of 1913) regarded it as one of his poorest decisions after the fact.
- Prrometheus 18y ago
  I advocate for the dissolution of the Federal Reserve. The world had very stable interest rates and inflation rates before the institution of fiat monopoly money (monopoly as in the sense of only one legal producer, but the other connotation works as well). If you knew that the interest rate on 10-yr AAA bonds was going to be within +/- 0.5% a year from now, don't you think that would make it easier to do business? Instead, we have a system where next year is +/- ~4.0%. People point out other drawbacks of the free banking and classical gold standard eras, and I agree that the systems had their problems. However, they were also working with a much smaller and less technological economy. In addition, they were hampered with idiotic anti-banking laws (such as unitary branching), most of which have been repealed today. I don't think we need a price-setter on the short term credit markets, and I don't think we need legal monopoly money. I don't think the arguments for the market break down in the monetary sphere. Anti-Fed people might not always state their case well, but that doesn't mean there is not a good case. There are a few Nobel's among the gold bugs.
- ajross 18y ago
  This kind of thing is a standard trope of investment news. Some market somewhere moves unexpectedly, so some journalist finds an analyst who predicted it and writes a story on "how they knew". It's a giant game of confirmation bias at work. That doesn't, by the way, mean that we aren't in for a rough few years (although depression-era hunger lines seem a step or nine too far to me). It just means that this guy doesn't statistically know any better than we do. He was just lucky.
henning 18y ago
The Internet says disaster looms just over the horizon? No way!
- j2d2 18y ago
  Seriously... The Great Depression doesn't seem all that bad compared to what history says if this is worse...
xirium 18y ago
The History Of Oil by Robert Newman ( http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5267640865741878159 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5267640865741878159 ) also mentions the possibility of a US only depression.
hugh 18y ago
OK, I'm getting pretty bored of the Everybody Panic articles. Who keeps voting them up? I always pick up some books every time someone is giving them away for free. One of my favourites (which I unfortunately left in my old office) is called something like "The Great Depression of the 1990s" (publication date: 1989) and warns us all how terrible the 1990s are going to be.
- davidw 18y ago
  > Who keeps voting them up? People coming in from reddit? Those kinds of stories are tremendously popular there. "Doom! Gloom!" sells, I guess.
- kingkongrevenge 18y ago
  > Who keeps voting them up? Perhaps economically literate people who agree with the arguments? Schiff is a little on the alarmist side, but it takes a megaphone to be heard over the geyser of bull-tard propaganda that dominates popular business discussion. You get ahead in America by joining the rah-rah chorus and people just don't want to hear bad news. > Everybody Panic articles. Schiff is very positive and bullish on certain countries and certain sectors. "Everybody panic" is not his theme; it's "US citizens should panic." If you paid attention to him six years ago and panicked, and moved out of USD denominated assets you're something like 50% richer than your neighbors. So who's being irrational? > "The Great Depression of the 1990s" What's your point? Various idiots make bad predictions all the time? So what? Might as well mention "Dow 30000". Schiff isn't an idiot. His arguments are sound.
  - davidw 18y ago
    > Perhaps economically literate people who agree with the arguments ... for some odd values of "economically literate", and who haven't caught on that this site is not for the discussion of one's pet economic and political theories.
    - kingkongrevenge 18y ago
      If this post is off topic then so are almost all of pg's essays.
sabat 18y ago
Typical bullshit from a guy who can't conceive of an economy that isn't based on the production of physical goods. Stop posting this crap, please. :-)
sridharvembu 18y ago
I upvoted for this. I take Peter Schiff very seriously. He has been right on housing, right on gold/commodities, and he is coming from a very fundamental point of view. I have been a fan of the "Austrian School" of Economics (Mises/Hayek/Rothbard) also known as the libertarian school, which is where people like Schiff come from. Do yourself a favor, and read up about it before you dismiss all of that as pointless doom and gloom. Ultimately it all comes down to the mindset change that has happened in America (and many other countries) over the past 15-20 years. Debt has become very fashionable, and large segments of the population have unwittingly become debt slaves. The ultimate root cause is Federal Reserve monetary policy (find out why). Credit bubbles do not end well.
- davidw 18y ago
  Please don't. This site isn't about economics, or politics for that matter. If you want to discuss extremist economics (or any economics not strictly related to startups, for that matter), reddit would work out better, between the "Austrian" types (of which there are none here in Austria, but plenty there), and the far-left types.
- gscott 18y ago
  The problem is the people who don't see this guy is dead on right. The Fed is trying to get more money out into the economy but debt is eating it up before it can do any good. Now they are going to try raising interest rates to get more outside investment but were messed up by the EU also announcing there own interest rates may rise.
jakewolf 18y ago
Who keeps on submitting links to sites that steal original content and don't even link back to the original? http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/your-money/2008/05/30/permabear-peter-schiffs-worst-case-scenario.html?PageNr=2 http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/your-money/2008/05/3...
ConradHex 18y ago
Whenever I worry about working at a startup during an economic downturn, I remember reading about HP, which was founded during the depression.
- magus_pwnsen 18y ago
  A lot of great opportunities appear during difficult times. For smart people under 30, the coming "next Great Depression" is a boon. For as long as we've been alive, social connections have mattered a lot more than hard work and talent. That is going to change.

15 points by fiaz 18y ago

How seriously do you take someone who advocates for the dissolution of the Federal Reserve? Pronouncements like this are kind of this guy's schtick.

gaius 18y ago
I'd say it depends on what his reasons are how seriously he should be taken.
kingkongrevenge 18y ago
Schiff is an extremely successful and wealthy investor. Considering how everyone's panties get all wet at the mention of Buffet I thought that was all it took to get props.
tl 18y ago
Schiff isn't alone in his belief that the federal reserve was a bad idea. The Fed is unpopular enough to make anti-central banking videos like "Money as Debt" popular and well received. Woodrow Wilson (who signed the Federal Reserve Act of 1913) regarded it as one of his poorest decisions after the fact.
Prrometheus 18y ago
I advocate for the dissolution of the Federal Reserve. The world had very stable interest rates and inflation rates before the institution of fiat monopoly money (monopoly as in the sense of only one legal producer, but the other connotation works as well). If you knew that the interest rate on 10-yr AAA bonds was going to be within +/- 0.5% a year from now, don't you think that would make it easier to do business? Instead, we have a system where next year is +/- ~4.0%. People point out other drawbacks of the free banking and classical gold standard eras, and I agree that the systems had their problems. However, they were also working with a much smaller and less technological economy. In addition, they were hampered with idiotic anti-banking laws (such as unitary branching), most of which have been repealed today. I don't think we need a price-setter on the short term credit markets, and I don't think we need legal monopoly money. I don't think the arguments for the market break down in the monetary sphere. Anti-Fed people might not always state their case well, but that doesn't mean there is not a good case. There are a few Nobel's among the gold bugs.
ajross 18y ago
This kind of thing is a standard trope of investment news. Some market somewhere moves unexpectedly, so some journalist finds an analyst who predicted it and writes a story on "how they knew". It's a giant game of confirmation bias at work. That doesn't, by the way, mean that we aren't in for a rough few years (although depression-era hunger lines seem a step or nine too far to me). It just means that this guy doesn't statistically know any better than we do. He was just lucky.

henning 18y ago

The Internet says disaster looms just over the horizon? No way!

j2d2 18y ago
Seriously... The Great Depression doesn't seem all that bad compared to what history says if this is worse...

xirium 18y ago

The History Of Oil by Robert Newman ( http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5267640865741878159 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5267640865741878159 ) also mentions the possibility of a US only depression.

hugh 18y ago

OK, I'm getting pretty bored of the Everybody Panic articles. Who keeps voting them up? I always pick up some books every time someone is giving them away for free. One of my favourites (which I unfortunately left in my old office) is called something like "The Great Depression of the 1990s" (publication date: 1989) and warns us all how terrible the 1990s are going to be.

davidw 18y ago
> Who keeps voting them up? People coming in from reddit? Those kinds of stories are tremendously popular there. "Doom! Gloom!" sells, I guess.
kingkongrevenge 18y ago
> Who keeps voting them up? Perhaps economically literate people who agree with the arguments? Schiff is a little on the alarmist side, but it takes a megaphone to be heard over the geyser of bull-tard propaganda that dominates popular business discussion. You get ahead in America by joining the rah-rah chorus and people just don't want to hear bad news. > Everybody Panic articles. Schiff is very positive and bullish on certain countries and certain sectors. "Everybody panic" is not his theme; it's "US citizens should panic." If you paid attention to him six years ago and panicked, and moved out of USD denominated assets you're something like 50% richer than your neighbors. So who's being irrational? > "The Great Depression of the 1990s" What's your point? Various idiots make bad predictions all the time? So what? Might as well mention "Dow 30000". Schiff isn't an idiot. His arguments are sound.
- davidw 18y ago
  > Perhaps economically literate people who agree with the arguments ... for some odd values of "economically literate", and who haven't caught on that this site is not for the discussion of one's pet economic and political theories.
  - kingkongrevenge 18y ago
    If this post is off topic then so are almost all of pg's essays.

sabat 18y ago

Typical bullshit from a guy who can't conceive of an economy that isn't based on the production of physical goods. Stop posting this crap, please. :-)

sridharvembu 18y ago

I upvoted for this. I take Peter Schiff very seriously. He has been right on housing, right on gold/commodities, and he is coming from a very fundamental point of view. I have been a fan of the "Austrian School" of Economics (Mises/Hayek/Rothbard) also known as the libertarian school, which is where people like Schiff come from. Do yourself a favor, and read up about it before you dismiss all of that as pointless doom and gloom. Ultimately it all comes down to the mindset change that has happened in America (and many other countries) over the past 15-20 years. Debt has become very fashionable, and large segments of the population have unwittingly become debt slaves. The ultimate root cause is Federal Reserve monetary policy (find out why). Credit bubbles do not end well.

davidw 18y ago
Please don't. This site isn't about economics, or politics for that matter. If you want to discuss extremist economics (or any economics not strictly related to startups, for that matter), reddit would work out better, between the "Austrian" types (of which there are none here in Austria, but plenty there), and the far-left types.
gscott 18y ago
The problem is the people who don't see this guy is dead on right. The Fed is trying to get more money out into the economy but debt is eating it up before it can do any good. Now they are going to try raising interest rates to get more outside investment but were messed up by the EU also announcing there own interest rates may rise.

jakewolf 18y ago

Who keeps on submitting links to sites that steal original content and don't even link back to the original? http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/your-money/2008/05/30/permabear-peter-schiffs-worst-case-scenario.html?PageNr=2 http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/your-money/2008/05/3...

ConradHex 18y ago

Whenever I worry about working at a startup during an economic downturn, I remember reading about HP, which was founded during the depression.

magus_pwnsen 18y ago
A lot of great opportunities appear during difficult times. For smart people under 30, the coming "next Great Depression" is a boon. For as long as we've been alive, social connections have mattered a lot more than hard work and talent. That is going to change.