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I can't see self driving cars being commonplace in 19 years time. People tend to like control.
by thomasknowles 16y ago
I can't see self driving cars being commonplace in 19 years time. People tend to like control.
- olalonde 16y agoSeconded. Most likely won't be a technical issue but more of a social issue.
- Vivtek 16y agoI am so getting one as soon as they're legal. A road trip with a book to read? Heaven!
- ido 16y agoI already get that experience by using revolutionary 19th century technology - the train.
- Vivtek 16y agoWell, congratulations for living somewhere where they have them. I guess I could catch a freight.
- ShardPhoenix 16y agoOnly if it happens to go where you want it, and at the speed you want. Roads coverage is a lot more thorough and road travel tends to be faster outside of rush hour.
- Devilboy 16y agoThe train won't drop you at your doorstep though.
- gst 16y agoThose things change fast. I remember when in the 90s most people preferred POP3 (for mail transfer), because for privacy reasons they didn't want their provider to have access to their mails. And quite a large number of people used encryption, even if they weren't technically inclined. Today almost no one cares about privacy anymore. Expectations have completly changed within a century. Today it's, e.g., common for most people to store all of their chat logs on Google's server, without regularly deleting them. Or another example: Today we have much more advanced surveillance systems used against the general population than the techniques used in the DDR. For most people back in the DDR those surveillance systems where not acceptable. Today most people accept them if it helps the government "to find terrorists and criminals". If privacy expectations can change within a century, why shouldn't the expectations on one's car change?
- joeyo 16y ago> And quite a large number of people used encryption, even > if they weren't technically inclined. I agree with your broader point that expectations and perceptions can change fast, but I don't ever remember a time when "quite a large number" of people used email encryption. Perhaps a larger group of users then than now had a desire for email encryption.
- bugmenot 16y agoThat's an interesting analogy, but I don't think it's fully applicable in this case. At least in developed nations, the demographics and characteristics of the average driver won't shift as much over the next two decades as those of the average e-mail user have over the past two decades. If the adoption rates of a given technology don't change dramatically, then any shift is like to be more reflective of general societal trends. So in nations that are currently considered third world, but won't be in twenty years, then I think it's much more ripe for the kind of shift you're talking about. Another possibility, though, is that the Boomers will start hitting that age where their ability to drive safely diminishes relatively quickly, and will desire to keep their current mobility. If mass transit doesn't improve much (and it probably won't, given the distances Americans tend to cover and the relatively low population density), that could be just the kind force needed to create an emerging market. Then again, we Americans are pretty lousy at learning to actually drive well, and seem to love anything that makes driving easier for the unskilled (see the recent rash of parallel parking assists), so I could be completely underestimating a technology that would prevent anyone from ever having to learn to do anything well, ever.
- pbourke 16y agoPeople are also willing to cede control in favour of attributes that they value more such as safety, convenience and shorter trips (in duration).
- russell 16y agoGoogle already has self driving cars that can safely navigate city traffic. I would say that 20 years is plenty of time to resolve the remaining technical and social issues.
- lwat 16y agoYou don't have to use the autodrive if you don't want to
- prodigal_erik 16y agoThat's an open question. An autodrive in traffic might be much more practical if it can either predict or communicate with the autodrives in all the other cars, rather than having to adapt to our erratic meat-oriented behavior.
- lwat 16y agoNo, it's like cruise control. If you want to use it, you hit the button. If you want to drive yourself, you don't.
- prodigal_erik 16y agoWhat I'm predicting is a ban on manual control in heavy traffic. Besides any throughput improvement, all-autodrive traffic will probably be safer, which is our priority (to an IMHO unhealthy extreme).
- lwat 16y agoHow will an eventual ban (after every vehicle has auto-drive presumably) on manual control have any impact on the initial take-up of auto-drive systems? What you're talking about (if it ever happens) will only happen many years after auto-drive becomes popular.
- prodigal_erik 16y agoGood point. There will be a period where it's optional, but if they hit the market by 2020 it will probably be mandatory by 2030.