5 ms·

I'm not sure it's climate regulations or economics that lead to this so much as it is fracking. While fracking has brought down natural gas prices in the US, as

by makomk 7y ago

I'm not sure it's climate regulations or economics that lead to this so much as it is fracking. While fracking has brought down natural gas prices in the US, as I understand it the big problem with switching from coal to gas absent fracking and horizontal drilling isn't just the price but the fact that there just wouldn't be enough of it.

adventured 7y ago
That's essentially correct, regarding the necessity of fracking to make natural gas able to have the impact that it has for the US. US natural gas production had not net moved higher from 1976 to 2006. Here's the boom from 2000 to 2013: https://i.imgur.com/S8Ky983.png https://i.imgur.com/S8Ky983.png You can see that it doesn't really move until 2007, when the fracking lift-off begins. Primarily Texas and Marcellus. From mid 2000 to 2009, natural gas prices in the US averaged around 100% to 150% higher than they are now. From 2003 to 2009, prices were essentially a minimum of 100% higher the entire time than they are right now. There simply wasn't enough supply to tame the demand impact, so prices got really crazy during the commodity bubble years in there. The long-term global NG demand chart is remarkable: https://i.imgur.com/0KLGshU.jpg https://i.imgur.com/0KLGshU.jpg Russian natural gas production is now well over twice what it was in the mid 1970s. And Middle East natural gas production is something like seven times higher than it was just 25 years ago.
- pfdietz 7y ago
  The efficiency of natural gas fired power plants gas also increased greatly since 1976: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EUfITI3EGIE/UU-FK6Ise0I/AAAAAAAAAWY/56do3BPzQt0/s1600/MIT_Gas_Turbine_Efficiency.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EUfITI3EGIE/UU-FK6Ise0I/AAAAAAAAAW...
- graycat 7y ago
  Okay, looked at the graph: Copied it to my system clipboard, read it into an old copy of Microsoft Photodraw, magnified it by 400% and THEN could read the axis annotation!!! The horizontal axis is time and goes from 1965 to 2017. The vertical axis is "global" natural gas volume demand in units of a billion cubic feet per day (at standard temperature and pressure, likely, hopefully). In 1965 the volume was about 60. In 2017 the volume was about 370. Between these two points, the graph went "up and to the right"! So, since 1965, the volume is up by a factor of about 6. Not wildly surprising. I grew up in west Tennessee, and the winter heat was from natural gas. Recently I returned to Tennessee, east Tennessee, and again the winter heat is from natural gas. Cozy!!! Between the two, I was long in NY with winter heat from fuel oil: Messy, had to have the furnace cleaned, and the oil was from a delivery truck -- botheration. Tennessee seems to do well on energy: There's the natural gas -- I have no idea where it comes from. There's TVA with hydropower from the Tennessee River. When demand for electric power grew, IIRC they used nuclear fission and coal. Maybe now they are using natural gas. Of course, in east Tennessee is Oak Ridge with a long history in energy generation and now supercomputers. I like Tennessee!
kortilla 7y ago
What you just described is economics. Fracking is leading to a huge supply at a lower cost. Supply and demand curves are economics. Plants changing to gas to compete are economics.

by makomk 7y ago

adventured 7y ago

That's essentially correct, regarding the necessity of fracking to make natural gas able to have the impact that it has for the US. US natural gas production had not net moved higher from 1976 to 2006. Here's the boom from 2000 to 2013: https://i.imgur.com/S8Ky983.png https://i.imgur.com/S8Ky983.png You can see that it doesn't really move until 2007, when the fracking lift-off begins. Primarily Texas and Marcellus. From mid 2000 to 2009, natural gas prices in the US averaged around 100% to 150% higher than they are now. From 2003 to 2009, prices were essentially a minimum of 100% higher the entire time than they are right now. There simply wasn't enough supply to tame the demand impact, so prices got really crazy during the commodity bubble years in there. The long-term global NG demand chart is remarkable: https://i.imgur.com/0KLGshU.jpg https://i.imgur.com/0KLGshU.jpg Russian natural gas production is now well over twice what it was in the mid 1970s. And Middle East natural gas production is something like seven times higher than it was just 25 years ago.

pfdietz 7y ago
The efficiency of natural gas fired power plants gas also increased greatly since 1976: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EUfITI3EGIE/UU-FK6Ise0I/AAAAAAAAAWY/56do3BPzQt0/s1600/MIT_Gas_Turbine_Efficiency.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EUfITI3EGIE/UU-FK6Ise0I/AAAAAAAAAW...
graycat 7y ago
Okay, looked at the graph: Copied it to my system clipboard, read it into an old copy of Microsoft Photodraw, magnified it by 400% and THEN could read the axis annotation!!! The horizontal axis is time and goes from 1965 to 2017. The vertical axis is "global" natural gas volume demand in units of a billion cubic feet per day (at standard temperature and pressure, likely, hopefully). In 1965 the volume was about 60. In 2017 the volume was about 370. Between these two points, the graph went "up and to the right"! So, since 1965, the volume is up by a factor of about 6. Not wildly surprising. I grew up in west Tennessee, and the winter heat was from natural gas. Recently I returned to Tennessee, east Tennessee, and again the winter heat is from natural gas. Cozy!!! Between the two, I was long in NY with winter heat from fuel oil: Messy, had to have the furnace cleaned, and the oil was from a delivery truck -- botheration. Tennessee seems to do well on energy: There's the natural gas -- I have no idea where it comes from. There's TVA with hydropower from the Tennessee River. When demand for electric power grew, IIRC they used nuclear fission and coal. Maybe now they are using natural gas. Of course, in east Tennessee is Oak Ridge with a long history in energy generation and now supercomputers. I like Tennessee!

kortilla 7y ago

What you just described is economics. Fracking is leading to a huge supply at a lower cost. Supply and demand curves are economics. Plants changing to gas to compete are economics.