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Total especutlation mode about the origin of this disaster: Venezuela is suffering oil export sanctions. When that kind of sanction happens it's not uncommon to

by soneca 7y ago

Total especutlation mode about the origin of this disaster: Venezuela is suffering oil export sanctions. When that kind of sanction happens it's not uncommon to transport oil in ships with "rented" flags or no flags to ports of close countries, so the oil is incorporated to that country's production and can be sold. It is a tiny quantity, but generate some money to some people. As everything clandestine, this transportation doesn't care much about safety and environmental precautions. It is tough investigation to make, so maybe we will end only with those especutlations

jiofih 7y ago
You’re right on. Chemical analysis has already confirmed that the oil comes from Venezuelan fields, and the quantity is smaller than you’d expect, they are currently investigating a handful of suspect ships, but most likely the responsible one would have had its comm equipment turned off and hence not recorded by radar.
- CompleteWalker 7y ago
  Do you have source for the chemical analysis? Curious to read...
  - rodolphoarruda 7y ago
    I'm not sure if data from the analysis will be made available to the large public anytime soon, but in the links below you can find more information about the protocol in use, measures taken so far and a statement from Petrobrás about the type of oil found in the region. https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2019/10/25/petrobras-diz-que-e-praticamente-impossivel-impedir-que-oleo-chegue-as-praias.ghtml https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2019/10/25/petrobras-d... https://www.marinha.mil.br/manchasdeoleo/informacoes-sobre-o-oleo https://www.marinha.mil.br/manchasdeoleo/informacoes-sobre-o... http://www.petrobras.com.br/fatos-e-dados/recolhemos-mais-de-200-toneladas-de-residuos-de-oleo-nas-praias-do-nordeste.htm http://www.petrobras.com.br/fatos-e-dados/recolhemos-mais-de...
    - jiofih 7y ago
      English tl;dr: Gas Chromatography and “Positive Ion Electron Impact Low Resolution Mass Spectrometry” allow them to compare the samples with known samples from other oil fields. Since petroleum has organic origins, it’s footprint is pretty much specific to the environment it comes from.
- inetknght 7y ago
  Turning communications equipment off is all that's necessary to disappear from radar?
  - schoen 7y ago
    Radar can detect ships that don't cooperate with it, but not identify them. Ships are supposed to actively cooperate with a system called AIS (which is like aviation's ADS-B). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_identification_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_identification_syste... If they use AIS as required, they will be identified by receivers that they pass nearby.
    - specialist 7y ago
      Surely there's a short list of usual suspects. Process of elimination. List of all known ships (tankers). Rule out ships accounted for (alibis). Investigate the handful of rouges.
  - zentiggr 7y ago
    Not exactly... turning off radios would prevent inadvertent/automatic transmissions disabling transponders would reduce footprint on more modernized port control radars not using radar from ownship reduces the chance of being seen all these together would render the ship's ELINT footprint down to an old school blob on whatever radar plot that's about as anonymous as you can get without active countermeasures and those are VERY obvious
    - malandrew 7y ago
      Can you tell us more about the active countermeasures? How do they work and what makes them very obvious?
      - bdamm 7y ago
        That is “stealth”. It’s obvious because it is expensive and secret tech. But also because if you look at the ship you see a ship, whereas the radar shows an albatross or something small. Transitions are also notable for radar operators that are really paying attention. A ship that turns into a goose and then back into a ship, for example.
- seminatl 7y ago
  Why doesn't the huge, expensive, sophisticated, and quite useless US Navy interdict these mystery ships? You only need the permission of a ship's registered country to interdict it if that ships is flying a true flag. Otherwise it's just pirates. This would give the USN a worthwhile mission for the first time in decades.
mrwebmaster 7y ago
A common hypothesis in South America is that Maduro did that on purpose. Maduro and Bolsonaro are on the opposite side of the political spectrum and I don't find that hard to believe.
- aylons 7y ago
  This is not common at all, except in a few fringe groups. Also, if you don't find that hard to believe, maybe you should check out your information sources.
hedvig 7y ago
Lift the sanctions.

by soneca 7y ago

jiofih 7y ago

You’re right on. Chemical analysis has already confirmed that the oil comes from Venezuelan fields, and the quantity is smaller than you’d expect, they are currently investigating a handful of suspect ships, but most likely the responsible one would have had its comm equipment turned off and hence not recorded by radar.

CompleteWalker 7y ago
Do you have source for the chemical analysis? Curious to read...
- rodolphoarruda 7y ago
  I'm not sure if data from the analysis will be made available to the large public anytime soon, but in the links below you can find more information about the protocol in use, measures taken so far and a statement from Petrobrás about the type of oil found in the region. https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2019/10/25/petrobras-diz-que-e-praticamente-impossivel-impedir-que-oleo-chegue-as-praias.ghtml https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2019/10/25/petrobras-d... https://www.marinha.mil.br/manchasdeoleo/informacoes-sobre-o-oleo https://www.marinha.mil.br/manchasdeoleo/informacoes-sobre-o... http://www.petrobras.com.br/fatos-e-dados/recolhemos-mais-de-200-toneladas-de-residuos-de-oleo-nas-praias-do-nordeste.htm http://www.petrobras.com.br/fatos-e-dados/recolhemos-mais-de...
  - jiofih 7y ago
    English tl;dr: Gas Chromatography and “Positive Ion Electron Impact Low Resolution Mass Spectrometry” allow them to compare the samples with known samples from other oil fields. Since petroleum has organic origins, it’s footprint is pretty much specific to the environment it comes from.
inetknght 7y ago
Turning communications equipment off is all that's necessary to disappear from radar?
- schoen 7y ago
  Radar can detect ships that don't cooperate with it, but not identify them. Ships are supposed to actively cooperate with a system called AIS (which is like aviation's ADS-B). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_identification_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_identification_syste... If they use AIS as required, they will be identified by receivers that they pass nearby.
  - specialist 7y ago
    Surely there's a short list of usual suspects. Process of elimination. List of all known ships (tankers). Rule out ships accounted for (alibis). Investigate the handful of rouges.
- zentiggr 7y ago
  Not exactly... turning off radios would prevent inadvertent/automatic transmissions disabling transponders would reduce footprint on more modernized port control radars not using radar from ownship reduces the chance of being seen all these together would render the ship's ELINT footprint down to an old school blob on whatever radar plot that's about as anonymous as you can get without active countermeasures and those are VERY obvious
  - malandrew 7y ago
    Can you tell us more about the active countermeasures? How do they work and what makes them very obvious?
    - bdamm 7y ago
      That is “stealth”. It’s obvious because it is expensive and secret tech. But also because if you look at the ship you see a ship, whereas the radar shows an albatross or something small. Transitions are also notable for radar operators that are really paying attention. A ship that turns into a goose and then back into a ship, for example.
seminatl 7y ago
Why doesn't the huge, expensive, sophisticated, and quite useless US Navy interdict these mystery ships? You only need the permission of a ship's registered country to interdict it if that ships is flying a true flag. Otherwise it's just pirates. This would give the USN a worthwhile mission for the first time in decades.

mrwebmaster 7y ago

A common hypothesis in South America is that Maduro did that on purpose. Maduro and Bolsonaro are on the opposite side of the political spectrum and I don't find that hard to believe.

aylons 7y ago
This is not common at all, except in a few fringe groups. Also, if you don't find that hard to believe, maybe you should check out your information sources.

hedvig 7y ago

Lift the sanctions.