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It has been obvious to me for a long time that AVs will not reduce traffic. Reducing the cost of driving will cause more driving to happen. While AVs will use t

It has been obvious to me for a long time that AVs will not reduce traffic. Reducing the cost of driving will cause more driving to happen. While AVs will use the road slightly more efficiently, the increase in driving will more than make up for it. AVs will make traffic a whole lot more tolerable, though. And they will dramatically reduce parking needs, freeing up space for other uses.

jacquesm 7y ago
It's a complete nobrainer. Right now the bulk of the cars are single occupant. That's because it is the occupants going places, not the cars. As soon as self-driving cars are a reality it will be the cars going places that get added to all the other traffic already there.
- CydeWeys 7y ago
  Once AVs become commonplace it's entirely possible that the majority of the cars on the road will have zero occupants, either because they're running errands or doing the deadhead leg of an occupied trip. It's absurd to think that transit buses containing dozens of riders are going to be held up behind zero-occupancy vehicles. The roads are going to get much much worse.
  - akadruid1 7y ago
    There are some rays of sunshine hidden in there though. Transit buses are awful and expensive because they must pack the maximum riders per driver to economical and politically viable. With zero-emission self driving vehicles they will be obsolete because you can redesign buses around passenger convenience and comfort, and you can make each journey much cheaper than the privately owned vehicles can manage. Think self-driving Uber Pool / Lyft Line, but the journey cost is 1/10th of the cost of driving your own vehicle. And you can give occupied vehicles priority over unoccupied ones in software.
    - CydeWeys 7y ago
      > Transit buses are awful and expensive because they must pack the maximum riders per driver to economical and politically viable. Source? Buses actually work very well in many places (and are much more economical and efficient than cars). The simplest way to make buses work well is to give them their own lanes; there's no reason a vehicle holding dozens of people should be held up behind single-occupancy vehicles. Buses are the best blend of resource efficiency and cost efficiency in transportation, full stop. And that's today, no additional inventions necessary.
- drcross 7y ago
  This is why I keep a keen eye on single occupancy vehicles. They will be the ultimate form of transportation and we haven't decided upon a good model design yet (think Renault twizy)
  - Jamwinner 7y ago
    I own a couple 2 seaters, and even that amount of reduced functionality with similar emissions seems dumb. This would only work if you did not value proximity to your friends and family.
- jliptzin 7y ago
  And you won’t need to park cars on valuable street area. Ideally they’d only stop to load/unload passengers, or to charge. That would free up many more lanes on city streets.
  - hirsin 7y ago
    A lane, maybe, some of the time. And don't underestimate the impact of pick up/drop off. Uber was supposed to bring the same change, but not it just takes twice as long to get through Capitol Hill because it's crowded with ubers waiting on pickups.
  - Aloha 7y ago
    They need to go somewhere, no one is going to send their car home on a 40 mile one way trip.
    - jacquesm 7y ago
      Depending on the parking fees I might just take that bet.
- alasdair_ 7y ago
  There will also be a whole bunch of completely empty cars waiting close to areas where people get picked up.
- dmitriid 7y ago
  Spotify's central office in Stockholm has ~1000 employees. So, at 6pm a thousand people call up the efficient fast driverless cars to go home.... And that's just one office out of a dozen on that street.
  - akadruid1 7y ago
    Those 1000 people don't have to be served by 1000 privately owned single occupancy vehicles. When they are inputting their destination before departure, a robo taxi can deliver 6-8 people with similar destinations door-to-door for a fraction of the cost of a private vehicle, the same comfort level, but occupy hardly more road space then 70-80 seat transit buses.
    - moogly 7y ago
      That's just public transport with a different name (and less efficiency). People want to ride alone.
    - tooop 7y ago
      No ride share is the same comfort level as private vehicle and it never will be.
    - dmitriid 7y ago
      So, those 1000 people have to: - somehow find other people "with similar destinations" - somehow synchronise the time they leave work - figure out who calls and pays for the robo-taxi How is that effecient? And, once again, that's just one office on a street of a dozen or so office buildings. Across is a building that houses 10 or so different companies. So I guess those people should also somehow group themselves across companies?

jacquesm 7y ago

It's a complete nobrainer. Right now the bulk of the cars are single occupant. That's because it is the occupants going places, not the cars. As soon as self-driving cars are a reality it will be the cars going places that get added to all the other traffic already there.

CydeWeys 7y ago
Once AVs become commonplace it's entirely possible that the majority of the cars on the road will have zero occupants, either because they're running errands or doing the deadhead leg of an occupied trip. It's absurd to think that transit buses containing dozens of riders are going to be held up behind zero-occupancy vehicles. The roads are going to get much much worse.
- akadruid1 7y ago
  There are some rays of sunshine hidden in there though. Transit buses are awful and expensive because they must pack the maximum riders per driver to economical and politically viable. With zero-emission self driving vehicles they will be obsolete because you can redesign buses around passenger convenience and comfort, and you can make each journey much cheaper than the privately owned vehicles can manage. Think self-driving Uber Pool / Lyft Line, but the journey cost is 1/10th of the cost of driving your own vehicle. And you can give occupied vehicles priority over unoccupied ones in software.
  - CydeWeys 7y ago
    > Transit buses are awful and expensive because they must pack the maximum riders per driver to economical and politically viable. Source? Buses actually work very well in many places (and are much more economical and efficient than cars). The simplest way to make buses work well is to give them their own lanes; there's no reason a vehicle holding dozens of people should be held up behind single-occupancy vehicles. Buses are the best blend of resource efficiency and cost efficiency in transportation, full stop. And that's today, no additional inventions necessary.
drcross 7y ago
This is why I keep a keen eye on single occupancy vehicles. They will be the ultimate form of transportation and we haven't decided upon a good model design yet (think Renault twizy)
- Jamwinner 7y ago
  I own a couple 2 seaters, and even that amount of reduced functionality with similar emissions seems dumb. This would only work if you did not value proximity to your friends and family.
jliptzin 7y ago
And you won’t need to park cars on valuable street area. Ideally they’d only stop to load/unload passengers, or to charge. That would free up many more lanes on city streets.
- hirsin 7y ago
  A lane, maybe, some of the time. And don't underestimate the impact of pick up/drop off. Uber was supposed to bring the same change, but not it just takes twice as long to get through Capitol Hill because it's crowded with ubers waiting on pickups.
- Aloha 7y ago
  They need to go somewhere, no one is going to send their car home on a 40 mile one way trip.
  - jacquesm 7y ago
    Depending on the parking fees I might just take that bet.
alasdair_ 7y ago
There will also be a whole bunch of completely empty cars waiting close to areas where people get picked up.
dmitriid 7y ago
Spotify's central office in Stockholm has ~1000 employees. So, at 6pm a thousand people call up the efficient fast driverless cars to go home.... And that's just one office out of a dozen on that street.
- akadruid1 7y ago
  Those 1000 people don't have to be served by 1000 privately owned single occupancy vehicles. When they are inputting their destination before departure, a robo taxi can deliver 6-8 people with similar destinations door-to-door for a fraction of the cost of a private vehicle, the same comfort level, but occupy hardly more road space then 70-80 seat transit buses.
  - moogly 7y ago
    That's just public transport with a different name (and less efficiency). People want to ride alone.
  - tooop 7y ago
    No ride share is the same comfort level as private vehicle and it never will be.
  - dmitriid 7y ago
    So, those 1000 people have to: - somehow find other people "with similar destinations" - somehow synchronise the time they leave work - figure out who calls and pays for the robo-taxi How is that effecient? And, once again, that's just one office on a street of a dozen or so office buildings. Across is a building that houses 10 or so different companies. So I guess those people should also somehow group themselves across companies?