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Well, No one can know with certainty whether a given object or situation is going to hold up. Life isn't guaranteed. Sure, you can tell yourself "X has worked
by joe_the_user 7y ago
Well,
No one can know with certainty whether a given object or situation is going to hold up. Life isn't guaranteed.
Sure, you can tell yourself "X has worked so-far, that makes it continuing to work quite likely". But X is "driving your car without adding gas or oil", that it worked for a while hardly makes it more likely.
And, of course, you can't claim predictive power for a sequence of individual experiences. And if you apply regression to a Ponzi scheme, it will seem like a great idea.
- ivalm 7y agoYour argument would only work if cryptos performed at least as well as fiat. The fact is all major cryptos have been far more volatile than fiat. In your car example, it might be that fiat is driving a car without adding gas or oil; but by that comparison crypto is driving a car that is actively on fire.
- joe_the_user 7y agoWhy do you think my argument has anything to do with Crypto currency? I make no mention of it and I am simply replying to "black box is a fine way to understand things" arguments. My point, my only point, a point removed from crypto entirely, is that one need specifics and not mere trends, to understand anything.