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> Assuming "the big one" is constantly just around the corner is a really bad investment strategy. Incidence of "black swans" is much higher than we except. No
by internet_user 7y ago
> Assuming "the big one" is constantly just around the corner is a really bad investment strategy.
Incidence of "black swans" is much higher than we except. Not only it's a valid strategy, it's how massive fortunes are made, as long as you control losses.
- pembrook 7y agoZero “massive fortunes” are made pulling your money out of the market and hiding in cash like OP suggested because you are scared. To profit off of a black swan event, you need to do 3 insanely hard things. You need to 1) predict both the exact timing of the the crash & the recovery after 2) predict the scale of the move downward and 3) actually go short and expose yourself to massive asymmetric risk. Massive fortunes are also made at the casino once in a while. That doesn’t mean it’s a repeatable strategy. Paul Tudor Jones and John Paulson know a thing or two about this.