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What if some adversary wanted to create a tailor made biological weapon that only affected people with a certain genetic profile?

by djmips 7y ago

Nasrudith 7y ago
It would be an even shittier weapon than most biological warfare agents?
jonlucc 7y ago
It's an interesting idea, but for a whole bunch of biological reasons, I suspect it would be exceedingly difficult if not impossible. First, we don't actually have the ability (as far as I'm aware) to use a particular genetic sequence to activate some drug that would work systemically. Second, we don't have the ability (as far as I'm aware) to recognize an identifying sequence, then do DNA damage elsewhere in a life-sustaining gene. Lastly, it takes so long to identify the output of a gene (protein, siRNA, rRNA, or whatever) and make a drug targeting that output that even if you were able to target a coding region, it would be far faster to kill them by more traditional means.
- jamesrcole 7y ago
  I took the question to include the future. Will it become possible? How soon could it become possible?
  - logfromblammo 7y ago
    Once the cat's out of the bag, it will be an arms race between biological attack and biological defense. Rich people and politically connected people will be vaccinated against the murder-viruses. And those are the only ones worth spending more than a brick of ammo to kill. It's far easier to take an already-deadly disease that kills indiscriminately, modify it to have shorter incubation time and higher kill rate (so it burns itself out before going pandemic) and shoot it at a target on a spitball or with a Bulgarian umbrella, while they're on their way to meet with everyone else you want to kill. Either way, that's still leaving biological evidence all over the crime scene, and has the potential to kill a lot of people you weren't specifically targeting. So the preferred methods of assassination will likely continue to be poisons, firearms, and explosives for a long time to come.
    - bulgarianjourno 7y ago
      This however, does mean that genetically targeted genocides would be possible...
      - logfromblammo 7y ago
        Already possible with guns, bombs, and poison. Already accomplished with guns, bombs, and poison.
- rantwasp 7y ago
  i believe that we have those capabilities already. super expensive + high risk we don’t actually understand what we’re doing but the capabilities are there. the future is now
  - Accujack 7y ago
    You need to do some more research. This is impossible now, and likely to remain so.
a3n 7y ago
They could do that without access to a database already.
- Accujack 7y ago
  Correction... it's just as impossible with or without a data source like the GEDmatch database. IE, not possible, period.
  - Mirioron 7y ago
    Right now, sure, but 50-100 years from now?
    - Accujack 7y ago
      Almost certainly impossible. It's not a matter of newer technology, it's just that DNA doesn't work that way. You'd have to have some kind of weapon targeted to a specific person's entire genome (based on a sample of it) to not end up with an insane amount of collateral damage. Human DNA is almost identical in every human that lives, and genes are present in everyone that are not active. You'd try to target a given group of people with e.g. brown skin and short stature and you'd end up killing your neighbors plus some other random people half a world away. DNA isn't computer code, it's a random stew.
greedo 7y ago
Frank Herbert's novel, The White Plague targeted women only (and had male carriers). When I read it in high school I realized targeted assassinations would eventually be possible.
testplzignore 7y ago
This is one of my greatest fears and I think it may be the ultimate demise of humanity. Imagine a virus that has a 90% mortality rate among East Asians, but only a 10% mortality rate amount Europeans. Or vice versa. It breaks the concept of mutually assured destruction because the attacker might believe that other nations do not have the ability to strike back, or they can construct feasible defenses against a counterstrike. Release the virus then close your borders and ports. It also would of course be easier for a non-state actor to construct a world-destroying biological weapon compared to an arsenal of nuclear weapons. You can hide a biological weapons lab anywhere.
- thepinkelefant 7y ago
  Watch the awesome Brit show “Utopia” which has a similar plot line and explains how the GMO foods are the link in this
searine 7y ago
Even if you designed a pathogen to do that, once released into the wild it would almost certainly spread to other populations. Viruses and bacteria already can jump zoonotically (between distant species), it would be trivial to adapt to within-species targets.
mindcrime 7y ago
I hang out with the local DIY Bio group a bit (even though I know bugger all about this subject, really, and do not consider myself a "biohcker"), and somehow the subject of "targeted assassinations" came up. After part of that conversation, I walked away with the understanding that my interlocutor (who was an actual expert in some aspect of this overall field) was saying that - in principle - you could engineer a mosquito to both A. carry a deadly disease (Ebola, Zika, Malaria, ??) AND B. only be likely to bite somebody with a specific genetic profile. As I recall, the individual I was talking to said that the didn't think it was possible to carry out that exact scenario today, but that it was close enough to reality to not be science-fiction, and would definitely be possible eventually.
C1sc0cat 7y ago
South Africa Was into that sadly

What if some adversary wanted to create a tailor made biological weapon that only affected people with a certain genetic profile?

by djmips 7y ago

What if some adversary wanted to create a tailor made biological weapon that only affected people with a certain genetic profile?

Nasrudith 7y ago

It would be an even shittier weapon than most biological warfare agents?

jonlucc 7y ago

It's an interesting idea, but for a whole bunch of biological reasons, I suspect it would be exceedingly difficult if not impossible. First, we don't actually have the ability (as far as I'm aware) to use a particular genetic sequence to activate some drug that would work systemically. Second, we don't have the ability (as far as I'm aware) to recognize an identifying sequence, then do DNA damage elsewhere in a life-sustaining gene. Lastly, it takes so long to identify the output of a gene (protein, siRNA, rRNA, or whatever) and make a drug targeting that output that even if you were able to target a coding region, it would be far faster to kill them by more traditional means.

jamesrcole 7y ago
I took the question to include the future. Will it become possible? How soon could it become possible?
- logfromblammo 7y ago
  Once the cat's out of the bag, it will be an arms race between biological attack and biological defense. Rich people and politically connected people will be vaccinated against the murder-viruses. And those are the only ones worth spending more than a brick of ammo to kill. It's far easier to take an already-deadly disease that kills indiscriminately, modify it to have shorter incubation time and higher kill rate (so it burns itself out before going pandemic) and shoot it at a target on a spitball or with a Bulgarian umbrella, while they're on their way to meet with everyone else you want to kill. Either way, that's still leaving biological evidence all over the crime scene, and has the potential to kill a lot of people you weren't specifically targeting. So the preferred methods of assassination will likely continue to be poisons, firearms, and explosives for a long time to come.
  - bulgarianjourno 7y ago
    This however, does mean that genetically targeted genocides would be possible...
    - logfromblammo 7y ago
      Already possible with guns, bombs, and poison. Already accomplished with guns, bombs, and poison.
rantwasp 7y ago
i believe that we have those capabilities already. super expensive + high risk we don’t actually understand what we’re doing but the capabilities are there. the future is now
- Accujack 7y ago
  You need to do some more research. This is impossible now, and likely to remain so.

a3n 7y ago

They could do that without access to a database already.

Accujack 7y ago
Correction... it's just as impossible with or without a data source like the GEDmatch database. IE, not possible, period.
- Mirioron 7y ago
  Right now, sure, but 50-100 years from now?
  - Accujack 7y ago
    Almost certainly impossible. It's not a matter of newer technology, it's just that DNA doesn't work that way. You'd have to have some kind of weapon targeted to a specific person's entire genome (based on a sample of it) to not end up with an insane amount of collateral damage. Human DNA is almost identical in every human that lives, and genes are present in everyone that are not active. You'd try to target a given group of people with e.g. brown skin and short stature and you'd end up killing your neighbors plus some other random people half a world away. DNA isn't computer code, it's a random stew.

greedo 7y ago

Frank Herbert's novel, The White Plague targeted women only (and had male carriers). When I read it in high school I realized targeted assassinations would eventually be possible.

testplzignore 7y ago

This is one of my greatest fears and I think it may be the ultimate demise of humanity. Imagine a virus that has a 90% mortality rate among East Asians, but only a 10% mortality rate amount Europeans. Or vice versa. It breaks the concept of mutually assured destruction because the attacker might believe that other nations do not have the ability to strike back, or they can construct feasible defenses against a counterstrike. Release the virus then close your borders and ports. It also would of course be easier for a non-state actor to construct a world-destroying biological weapon compared to an arsenal of nuclear weapons. You can hide a biological weapons lab anywhere.

thepinkelefant 7y ago
Watch the awesome Brit show “Utopia” which has a similar plot line and explains how the GMO foods are the link in this

searine 7y ago

Even if you designed a pathogen to do that, once released into the wild it would almost certainly spread to other populations. Viruses and bacteria already can jump zoonotically (between distant species), it would be trivial to adapt to within-species targets.

mindcrime 7y ago

I hang out with the local DIY Bio group a bit (even though I know bugger all about this subject, really, and do not consider myself a "biohcker"), and somehow the subject of "targeted assassinations" came up. After part of that conversation, I walked away with the understanding that my interlocutor (who was an actual expert in some aspect of this overall field) was saying that - in principle - you could engineer a mosquito to both A. carry a deadly disease (Ebola, Zika, Malaria, ??) AND B. only be likely to bite somebody with a specific genetic profile. As I recall, the individual I was talking to said that the didn't think it was possible to carry out that exact scenario today, but that it was close enough to reality to not be science-fiction, and would definitely be possible eventually.

C1sc0cat 7y ago

South Africa Was into that sadly