3 ms·

That's an interesting thesis. Could you explain why?

scottlocklin 7y ago
If automation were increasing producitivity, you could invest capital in it and get giant returns, making capital more rare and valuable, as it would be tied up in productive ventures. It isn't. Even freaking google is basically punting on a basket of dumb ideas, absolutely none of which has worked out, and none of which are likely to pan out, and (rationally) sitting on a huge barrel of cash from their looting of the US media system. Therefore, negative interest rates. Negative interest rates = negative productivity increases. So it is, so it has always been. That's what finance is! You loan money to people to do useful things with. If there's nothing useful to do, the money isn't worth as much. Most of it, these days, goes to dumb shit like real estate bubbles. All you need do is look at times when human power over nature was obviously increasing; capital was dear and interest rates where high because you could invest in the Bessemer Process or the Concorde or the Haber process or, like, the invention of computers and telecommunications. These days, we have ... apps for your phone. Of course we have negative interest rates; there is literally nothing to invest in.
- mistermann 7y ago
  How does the creation of trillions of dollars of new capital out of thin air fit into this theory?
  - Supermancho 7y ago
    Propping up the industries that are losses but whose failure would cause massive instability and upheaval. Those in power, have no interest in this outcome while they are in power. So Quantitative Easing part X and punt to the next election cycle.
- smaddox 7y ago
  You've got the causality backwards. Low interest rates cause speculative investment. Good investments don't cause high interest rates.
  - scottlocklin 7y ago
    I made no statement on causality. It's a simple statement on returns. You can't pay out high interest rates, or, like returns on anything, unless you're going to get improved productivity. If your productivity is declining (it probably is, considering demographics), you'll get fun times like negative interest rates. And dumbass speculative bubbles. And low interest rates DEFINITELY do not cause speculative investment in R&D projects which could increase productivity. c.f. for example, the present! Compared to the high interest rate era of Bell Labs and moon shots; we have zilch for large scale investment in R&D for future productivity improvements.
    - mistermann 7y ago
      > I made no statement on causality. Does "Negative interest rates = negative productivity increases. So it is, so it has always been." not at least hint at causality? > And low interest rates DEFINITELY do not cause speculative investment in R&D projects which could increase productivity. This seems completely inconsistent with easily observed reality.

If automation were increasing producitivity, you could invest capital in it and get giant returns, making capital more rare and valuable, as it would be tied up in productive ventures. It isn't. Even freaking google is basically punting on a basket of dumb ideas, absolutely none of which has worked out, and none of which are likely to pan out, and (rationally) sitting on a huge barrel of cash from their looting of the US media system. Therefore, negative interest rates. Negative interest rates = negative productivity increases. So it is, so it has always been. That's what finance is! You loan money to people to do useful things with. If there's nothing useful to do, the money isn't worth as much. Most of it, these days, goes to dumb shit like real estate bubbles. All you need do is look at times when human power over nature was obviously increasing; capital was dear and interest rates where high because you could invest in the Bessemer Process or the Concorde or the Haber process or, like, the invention of computers and telecommunications. These days, we have ... apps for your phone. Of course we have negative interest rates; there is literally nothing to invest in.

mistermann 7y ago
How does the creation of trillions of dollars of new capital out of thin air fit into this theory?
- Supermancho 7y ago
  Propping up the industries that are losses but whose failure would cause massive instability and upheaval. Those in power, have no interest in this outcome while they are in power. So Quantitative Easing part X and punt to the next election cycle.
smaddox 7y ago
You've got the causality backwards. Low interest rates cause speculative investment. Good investments don't cause high interest rates.
- scottlocklin 7y ago
  I made no statement on causality. It's a simple statement on returns. You can't pay out high interest rates, or, like returns on anything, unless you're going to get improved productivity. If your productivity is declining (it probably is, considering demographics), you'll get fun times like negative interest rates. And dumbass speculative bubbles. And low interest rates DEFINITELY do not cause speculative investment in R&D projects which could increase productivity. c.f. for example, the present! Compared to the high interest rate era of Bell Labs and moon shots; we have zilch for large scale investment in R&D for future productivity improvements.
  - mistermann 7y ago
    > I made no statement on causality. Does "Negative interest rates = negative productivity increases. So it is, so it has always been." not at least hint at causality? > And low interest rates DEFINITELY do not cause speculative investment in R&D projects which could increase productivity. This seems completely inconsistent with easily observed reality.