4 ms·

AMD is worth ~40B today. FB is worth ~550B today. AMD supplies a product in growing demand while FB supplies access to demographics in growing demand. But the d

by jsf01 7y ago

AMD is worth ~40B today. FB is worth ~550B today. AMD supplies a product in growing demand while FB supplies access to demographics in growing demand. But the downside risks are not the same. It only took FB’s viral growth to end MySpace. User loyalty is far more fleeting than the market for CPUs. Within five years or your preferred investment time horizon, compare the valuations of each firm and see how your assessment stood the test of time.

mantap 7y ago
Facebook has a plan A and a plan B for dealing with competition. Plan A is to buy out competitors to acquire users and diversify their brand (Instagram, Whatsapp). Plan B is to use FB's overwhelming resource advantage to copy their product (Snapchat). It's fair to say that FB is well aware of what happened to MySpace. Any potential "Facebook killer" needs to circumvent both of these tactics. Not impossible but not easy either.
- webninja 7y ago
  Facebook’s Lasso doesn’t seem to be killing TikTok
  - adventured 7y ago
    Zuckerberg went to Washington in September & October and took care of that. While he was busy with several other topics, you can be sure he leaned on the right members of Congress about TikTok. The US has a very strong interest in every possible regard to protect Facebook's dominance and to kill or restrain TikTok by forcing it apart from Bytedance or burying it through the app stores. If it gets separated from Bytedance it's either toast or it ends up in the belly of a US giant (or maybe even Spotify depending on the valuation).
    - riffraff 7y ago
      Even if the us Congress somehow blocks tiktok, FB appears to be losing a lot of ground to it in the rest of the planet.
- fireattack 7y ago
  Not very familiar with this, what's FB's copy of Snapchat?
  - nsomaru 7y ago
    Facebook copies features into WhatsApp and Instagram like “stories” which are posts that disappear and cannot be saved, a core feature of Snapchat
KaoruAoiShiho 7y ago
What does this even mean, haha. AMD is an also ran competing on price. It has no competitive advantages, no moat, weak brand. That is has a 180 PE is an absolute joke. It's so high purely because the culture really dislikes Intel/nvidia making so much money on their pricey products and wants a viable competitor badly. This leads to them emotionally becoming invested into the alternative even though objectively it's not a fast growing nor defensive business. FB on the other hand. Incredible profit growth year after year. Powerful network effects leads them into crushing new markets all the time. Huge profits from their monopolies lets them easily take cool risks. The whole comment about MySpace/social media is exactly what I'm talking about. Males who are nerdy are extremely dismissive of products that are mostly used by women or other people from different milieus. People have a hard time pulling for companies that they don't see succeeding, it's a cognitive error leading to imagination inflation. Know your biases. Please, keep this thread in mind in 5 years!
- ric2b 7y ago
  > It has no competitive advantages, no moat, weak brand. Competitive advantage: it has more experience in GPU's than Intel, it is more flexible in terms of fab tech because it doesn't run it's own fabs, it can switch easily to a different fab. Moat: Seriously? High-end chip design is one of the hardest industries to get into, you think some startup can just enter the market? Weak brand: It's very well known in the whole world and has no negative associations, I don't even know what you mean with this.
  - dralley 7y ago
    Don't forget they have the competitive advantage of chiplets which enables higher yields, and the moat of the x86/AMD64 cross licensing agreement with Intel. Intel and AMD are effectively the only organizations that can legally produce modern x86 CPUs even if others had the technical knowledge to do so.

by jsf01 7y ago

mantap 7y ago

Facebook has a plan A and a plan B for dealing with competition. Plan A is to buy out competitors to acquire users and diversify their brand (Instagram, Whatsapp). Plan B is to use FB's overwhelming resource advantage to copy their product (Snapchat). It's fair to say that FB is well aware of what happened to MySpace. Any potential "Facebook killer" needs to circumvent both of these tactics. Not impossible but not easy either.

webninja 7y ago
Facebook’s Lasso doesn’t seem to be killing TikTok
- adventured 7y ago
  Zuckerberg went to Washington in September & October and took care of that. While he was busy with several other topics, you can be sure he leaned on the right members of Congress about TikTok. The US has a very strong interest in every possible regard to protect Facebook's dominance and to kill or restrain TikTok by forcing it apart from Bytedance or burying it through the app stores. If it gets separated from Bytedance it's either toast or it ends up in the belly of a US giant (or maybe even Spotify depending on the valuation).
  - riffraff 7y ago
    Even if the us Congress somehow blocks tiktok, FB appears to be losing a lot of ground to it in the rest of the planet.
fireattack 7y ago
Not very familiar with this, what's FB's copy of Snapchat?
- nsomaru 7y ago
  Facebook copies features into WhatsApp and Instagram like “stories” which are posts that disappear and cannot be saved, a core feature of Snapchat

KaoruAoiShiho 7y ago

What does this even mean, haha. AMD is an also ran competing on price. It has no competitive advantages, no moat, weak brand. That is has a 180 PE is an absolute joke. It's so high purely because the culture really dislikes Intel/nvidia making so much money on their pricey products and wants a viable competitor badly. This leads to them emotionally becoming invested into the alternative even though objectively it's not a fast growing nor defensive business. FB on the other hand. Incredible profit growth year after year. Powerful network effects leads them into crushing new markets all the time. Huge profits from their monopolies lets them easily take cool risks. The whole comment about MySpace/social media is exactly what I'm talking about. Males who are nerdy are extremely dismissive of products that are mostly used by women or other people from different milieus. People have a hard time pulling for companies that they don't see succeeding, it's a cognitive error leading to imagination inflation. Know your biases. Please, keep this thread in mind in 5 years!

ric2b 7y ago
> It has no competitive advantages, no moat, weak brand. Competitive advantage: it has more experience in GPU's than Intel, it is more flexible in terms of fab tech because it doesn't run it's own fabs, it can switch easily to a different fab. Moat: Seriously? High-end chip design is one of the hardest industries to get into, you think some startup can just enter the market? Weak brand: It's very well known in the whole world and has no negative associations, I don't even know what you mean with this.
- dralley 7y ago
  Don't forget they have the competitive advantage of chiplets which enables higher yields, and the moat of the x86/AMD64 cross licensing agreement with Intel. Intel and AMD are effectively the only organizations that can legally produce modern x86 CPUs even if others had the technical knowledge to do so.