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I have retirement savings, yes. I'm lucky that I enjoy the work that I do, and expect to continue doing this kind of work in some capacity for as long as I'm ab

by ohazi 7y ago

I have retirement savings, yes. I'm lucky that I enjoy the work that I do, and expect to continue doing this kind of work in some capacity for as long as I'm able. I expect to have to pay for things in 2049 just like everybody else. I anticipate that dollars saved today won't go as far in 2049, and so I save more than I think I'll need. If higher than expected inflation or lack of caregiver supply is a problem, then we'll have to find a way to deal with it. If my dollars won't go as far as I think they will, well that's tough cookies for me, but that's not any different from how the world works today too. You can't anticipate everything. But suggesting that the root cause of this problem is women not having enough babies, and insinuating that things would be oh so much easier if we could just go back to how things were in the '60s where half the population was disenfranchised (as this article does) -- is utter lunacy. That's not happening. That shouldn't happen. And even if it did happen, it wouldn't actually fix the problem.

shrimp_emoji 7y ago
Modern US$ annual inflation rates are under 3%.[0] What's an average mutual fund's annual return? For mine, it's around 4-6%, I think, which agrees with the average here: "The 20-year return on mutual funds averages 4.67%."[1] So, as long as you safely invest what you're saving, aren't you statistically covered and then some? 0: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/ https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-i... 1: https://www.creditdonkey.com/average-mutual-fund-return.html https://www.creditdonkey.com/average-mutual-fund-return.html
- rotexo 7y ago
  My understanding was that the parent's parent was saying that the expectation of returns in a mutual fund is predicated on continued economic growth, predicated on there being more people in the future to enact all that growth. Society has switched from pensions to individual retirement investment. The expectation of there being more money in the future remains the same.
  - shrimp_emoji 7y ago
    Snap, I forgot. Well, BUT, if the 10 billion peak comes by 2100, we're statistically covered. :DD Tail end of carrying capacity economic growth gaaang!! xDD People reading this a century from now: hey you should've colonized the Solar System with orbital habitats neck deep in asteroid belt platinum, kids those days smh.
- bryanlarsen 7y ago
  Inflation isn't a single number, it's a basket. For a millenial who's spending most of their money on rent & tuition, the number is a lot higher on tuition. For somebody buying gadgets and high-end cars, the number is negative. In the future, the demand for eldercare is going to skyrocket, with a lot less supply. Working folks will be fine because they'll be spending their money on stuff produced by robots: food, durable goods, et cetera. The elderly are going to be @#$%ed because I doubt that robots are going to be very good at providing eldercare.
  - AstralStorm 7y ago
    Well, a lot of stock is placed on people wanting to be nice to grandgrandpa just because. Should that fail, the sick elderly will have problems, the healthy ones will sap the job market. We would see compensatory hyperspecialization at top end and also young people doing jobs formerly odious, potentially for better pay. Maybe a plenty of weird and unexpected social reactions too.

by ohazi 7y ago

shrimp_emoji 7y ago

Modern US$ annual inflation rates are under 3%.[0] What's an average mutual fund's annual return? For mine, it's around 4-6%, I think, which agrees with the average here: "The 20-year return on mutual funds averages 4.67%."[1] So, as long as you safely invest what you're saving, aren't you statistically covered and then some? 0: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/ https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-i... 1: https://www.creditdonkey.com/average-mutual-fund-return.html https://www.creditdonkey.com/average-mutual-fund-return.html

rotexo 7y ago
My understanding was that the parent's parent was saying that the expectation of returns in a mutual fund is predicated on continued economic growth, predicated on there being more people in the future to enact all that growth. Society has switched from pensions to individual retirement investment. The expectation of there being more money in the future remains the same.
- shrimp_emoji 7y ago
  Snap, I forgot. Well, BUT, if the 10 billion peak comes by 2100, we're statistically covered. :DD Tail end of carrying capacity economic growth gaaang!! xDD People reading this a century from now: hey you should've colonized the Solar System with orbital habitats neck deep in asteroid belt platinum, kids those days smh.
bryanlarsen 7y ago
Inflation isn't a single number, it's a basket. For a millenial who's spending most of their money on rent & tuition, the number is a lot higher on tuition. For somebody buying gadgets and high-end cars, the number is negative. In the future, the demand for eldercare is going to skyrocket, with a lot less supply. Working folks will be fine because they'll be spending their money on stuff produced by robots: food, durable goods, et cetera. The elderly are going to be @#$%ed because I doubt that robots are going to be very good at providing eldercare.
- AstralStorm 7y ago
  Well, a lot of stock is placed on people wanting to be nice to grandgrandpa just because. Should that fail, the sick elderly will have problems, the healthy ones will sap the job market. We would see compensatory hyperspecialization at top end and also young people doing jobs formerly odious, potentially for better pay. Maybe a plenty of weird and unexpected social reactions too.