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PG&E is being turned into a witch to hang on the stake. But people are seriously completely missing the real problem. California is a gigantic tinderbox of mism

PG&E is being turned into a witch to hang on the stake. But people are seriously completely missing the real problem. California is a gigantic tinderbox of mismanaged forests, tons of dead and dry material laying around and with climate change, shit is even drier. California is going to catch fire whether the power is on or not. A fucking car trailer started one of the major fires last year. There's at least a decade of completely piss poor forest management responsible without controlled burns and fire breaks to plan for the _naturally destined to occur forest fires_.

ransom1538 7y ago
Yes. And! this isn't new. The Japanese during world war ii figured it was their only shot to upset the war. The Japanese figured California was so dry that just igniting a few trees could cause a state wide fire. https://www.npr.org/sections/npr-history-dept/2015/01/20/375820191/beware-of-japanese-balloon-bombs https://www.npr.org/sections/npr-history-dept/2015/01/20/375...
- nostrademons 7y ago
  This was also the target of the only submarine-launched air strike: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lookout_Air_Raids https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lookout_Air_Raids Their premise - or at least their navigation - ended up being incorrect though: they dropped their bombs in Oregon, and the fires were extinguished by rain before they could do serious damage.
bluntfang 7y ago
>PG&E is being turned into a witch...There's at least a decade of completely piss poor forest management Uh huh, so why are you looking for a witch in forest management? The forest is managing itself just fine, it just so happens that it doesn't benefit American suburban sprawl.
- throwawayhhakdl 7y ago
  The forest is trying to manage itself but is being prevented by humans. Forests are supposed to burn occasionally. We have prevented this from happening. Now there’s far too much old dry foliage to burn, so when a fire starts, it gets crazy. Smoky the bear is the unintended enemy of the forest.
  - 1-6 7y ago
    ...and scientists and environmentalists contradict themselves when they complain that we can't let dry foliage burn because it will lead to CO2 emissions.
    - afjl 7y ago
      As a Californian, I have never heard "environmentalism" used as an excuse for preventing forest fires. I hear lots about lost homes, lost lives, lost businesses; never anything about environmentalism.
    - MertsA 7y ago
      What self respecting scientist would ever claim that dead plants not burning would sequester carbon? If it's in a position to burn then it's in a position to decay which releases that carbon back into the atmosphere anyways. If anything, charred wood is more resistant to decay than a bunch of cellulose and lignin.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
dragonwriter 7y ago
> PG&E is being turned into a witch to hang on the stake. Are you saying that they didn't neglect preventive maintenance while returning billions to shareholders in dividends? > California is going to catch fire whether the power is on or not. That California is going to—as it always has—havr fires, including major ones, with or without utility mismanagement is not the issue in dispute. PG&E isn't being blamed for that. PG&E is being blamed for the degree to which it's failure to maintain it's infrastructure while returning profits to it's investors has contributed to the amount of fire damage. And, yes, climate and other factors which increase overall for risk are a multiplier on that, but if the hadn't been deferrring maintenance for years, that would be a multiplier on zero. > There's at least a decade of completely piss poor forest management responsible That's hardly the reason for the fires that aren't forest fires.
- shortandsweet 7y ago
  How do you know it is their responsibility to trim trees? It all depends on the easement legal details. In some cases, they may be, but in others the property owner would be. The lines were fine until the vegetation got in the way! I don't know anywhere in the world where a utility is responsible for events like these as CA has made PGE to be. Really makes you think. Why the sudden change when fires have been happening since the dawn of time? Why care so much so suddenly?
  - dboreham 7y ago
    Elsewhere in the world most power lines are buried.
    - dathinab 7y ago
      Actually long distance power lines aren't buried in any country (there are some exceptions). But they either - put so hight the air that taking trees don't affect then - have trees around then cleared out, which implicitly also acts as a (slight) fire gap in case of Forest fires
    - MiroF 7y ago
v77 7y ago
I'd go even farther: a lot of people should not be living where they are living. If insurers won't cover you you should not be living in an area with {fire, flood, hurrican} risk as you have transferred the cost of your lifestyle choice to the public.
- pcwalton 7y ago
  This is important. Poor land use policies in California are possibly a bigger contributor to the problem than anything else. They impact our ability to do controlled burns, for example: the biggest obstacle to controlled burns is health effects, which happen because the number of wilderness-urban areas is way too large in this state.
- SilasX 7y ago
  I agree. Utilities should be billed in a way so that more expensive distribution costs for more remote areas are borne by those who live in such areas; if that makes living out there while connected to the grid infeasible, then people shouldn't do it. I can understand subsidized infra for rural farms as a matter of food security policy[1], maybe. But these home aren't that, they're more "cottage in the mountains" kind of deal. [1] That is, not endorsing it, but considering it credible enough to file under "reasonable people can disagree".
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- rhacker 7y ago
  I think a lot of people are going to read: "they're not going to be able to build there anymore" but the reality is - the same land will be used, but it will be massively terraformed. It won't change where we're allowed to build, it will change how many changes we need to make before the build can start.
pcwalton 7y ago
They are doing controlled burns. It's just a long process: https://e360.yale.edu/features/fighting-fire-with-fire-california-turns-to-prescribed-burning https://e360.yale.edu/features/fighting-fire-with-fire-calif... Wildfires are a complex problem—there is no one entity we can point our fingers at to blame—and most of the replies in this thread are failing to acknowledge this. Here is a Twitter thread about the issue that does a good job getting into the complexity of the problem: https://twitter.com/frkearns/status/1188912491620732929 https://twitter.com/frkearns/status/1188912491620732929
dehrmann 7y ago
I'm not entirely sure what people want them to do. A year ago, people were calling for PG&E to be shut down (then where would you get your power from?), and there was strong pressure to hold them liable. They got the message, and they're doing the one thing thing can do with only a ~year of notice: cutting off power when and where it's risky. Until more lines are buried, there's more maintenance around them in these areas, or PG&E is released of liability, this is what happens.
- jartelt 7y ago
  I imagine people would like PG&E to have a functioning website that shows where power is going to be turned off, to have a more predictable warning system so people can have more than a few hours notice of impending blackouts, to have better managed community centers so people can access essential resources during blackouts, etc. This is relatively basic stuff that a large corporation should be able to figure out with a ~year of notice. Instead there first few blackouts have been very poorly managed despite the fact that PG&E knew this was coming.
  - dehrmann 7y ago
    > more than a few hours notice of impending blackouts I'm not sure if weather is predicable enough to do this in the micro sense. Obviously, warning that Sept-Nov might have blackouts is easy.
    - trentlott 7y ago
      Hmm, but we know weather like two weeks in advance We understand it isn't an exact and perfect prediction for the state of things half a month from now, but it's better than nothing. "your area is at risk of blackouts next week - 60%" is better than nothin'
- dave5104 7y ago
  Having the state (or even local municipalities) buy them out and turning the utility into a publicly-owned utility is one popular opinion I keep hearing. They might have more money to start burying lines if they didn't need to answer to investors.
bndw 7y ago
Regarding forest [mis]management-- If you're interested in learning more about this subject, the 7 episode Wildfire[0] podcast digs into forest habitats and chronicles our historical and present day management of them. [0] https://www.rei.com/blog/podcasts/wildfire-episode-one-trapped-by-fire https://www.rei.com/blog/podcasts/wildfire-episode-one-trapp...
rhacker 7y ago
lol, I keep seeing this excuse in every HN thread about this. The fatal flaw is that with all the tinder, the ONLY thing starting the fires IS the transmission lines. So even if we had some wack job going around with a gas can and a match, he's not doing as well as PG&E is doing. Beyond just that - I think it's kinda crazy with all the technology we have - no one has suggested adding a FLIR and non-FLIR camera to both directions on each transmission tower - and then add some machine learning (to push reports up).
justapassenger 7y ago
If you want to have stable system, just don’t have bugs in it, simple! /s It’s same situation - people focus on PGE, which is current big source of bugs. But fixing those bugs won’t make system stable, as new issues will always show up in such a complex system. You need to have well understood failure domains, and design a system to avoid cascading failures.
gnarlysasquatch 7y ago
I’d love to see studies: - comparing maintenance and faults to utilities in other areas - comparing likelihood of ignition and resulting damages given an ignition event There are lots of factors that combine into these events. Most of the discussion I’ve seen pick on one or two without considering the others. I guess it’s great if generating outrage is the goal, but it seems unlikely that will actually fix much.
not_a_cop75 7y ago
It seems like the liability should be much more shared than it currently is being, although the execs of PG&E can start improving things by not being such complete douchebags.

ransom1538 7y ago

Yes. And! this isn't new. The Japanese during world war ii figured it was their only shot to upset the war. The Japanese figured California was so dry that just igniting a few trees could cause a state wide fire. https://www.npr.org/sections/npr-history-dept/2015/01/20/375820191/beware-of-japanese-balloon-bombs https://www.npr.org/sections/npr-history-dept/2015/01/20/375...

nostrademons 7y ago
This was also the target of the only submarine-launched air strike: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lookout_Air_Raids https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lookout_Air_Raids Their premise - or at least their navigation - ended up being incorrect though: they dropped their bombs in Oregon, and the fires were extinguished by rain before they could do serious damage.

bluntfang 7y ago

>PG&E is being turned into a witch...There's at least a decade of completely piss poor forest management Uh huh, so why are you looking for a witch in forest management? The forest is managing itself just fine, it just so happens that it doesn't benefit American suburban sprawl.

throwawayhhakdl 7y ago
The forest is trying to manage itself but is being prevented by humans. Forests are supposed to burn occasionally. We have prevented this from happening. Now there’s far too much old dry foliage to burn, so when a fire starts, it gets crazy. Smoky the bear is the unintended enemy of the forest.
- 1-6 7y ago
  ...and scientists and environmentalists contradict themselves when they complain that we can't let dry foliage burn because it will lead to CO2 emissions.
  - afjl 7y ago
    As a Californian, I have never heard "environmentalism" used as an excuse for preventing forest fires. I hear lots about lost homes, lost lives, lost businesses; never anything about environmentalism.
  - MertsA 7y ago
    What self respecting scientist would ever claim that dead plants not burning would sequester carbon? If it's in a position to burn then it's in a position to decay which releases that carbon back into the atmosphere anyways. If anything, charred wood is more resistant to decay than a bunch of cellulose and lignin.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

dragonwriter 7y ago

> PG&E is being turned into a witch to hang on the stake. Are you saying that they didn't neglect preventive maintenance while returning billions to shareholders in dividends? > California is going to catch fire whether the power is on or not. That California is going to—as it always has—havr fires, including major ones, with or without utility mismanagement is not the issue in dispute. PG&E isn't being blamed for that. PG&E is being blamed for the degree to which it's failure to maintain it's infrastructure while returning profits to it's investors has contributed to the amount of fire damage. And, yes, climate and other factors which increase overall for risk are a multiplier on that, but if the hadn't been deferrring maintenance for years, that would be a multiplier on zero. > There's at least a decade of completely piss poor forest management responsible That's hardly the reason for the fires that aren't forest fires.

shortandsweet 7y ago
How do you know it is their responsibility to trim trees? It all depends on the easement legal details. In some cases, they may be, but in others the property owner would be. The lines were fine until the vegetation got in the way! I don't know anywhere in the world where a utility is responsible for events like these as CA has made PGE to be. Really makes you think. Why the sudden change when fires have been happening since the dawn of time? Why care so much so suddenly?
- dboreham 7y ago
  Elsewhere in the world most power lines are buried.
  - dathinab 7y ago
    Actually long distance power lines aren't buried in any country (there are some exceptions). But they either - put so hight the air that taking trees don't affect then - have trees around then cleared out, which implicitly also acts as a (slight) fire gap in case of Forest fires
  - MiroF 7y ago

v77 7y ago

I'd go even farther: a lot of people should not be living where they are living. If insurers won't cover you you should not be living in an area with {fire, flood, hurrican} risk as you have transferred the cost of your lifestyle choice to the public.

pcwalton 7y ago
This is important. Poor land use policies in California are possibly a bigger contributor to the problem than anything else. They impact our ability to do controlled burns, for example: the biggest obstacle to controlled burns is health effects, which happen because the number of wilderness-urban areas is way too large in this state.
SilasX 7y ago
I agree. Utilities should be billed in a way so that more expensive distribution costs for more remote areas are borne by those who live in such areas; if that makes living out there while connected to the grid infeasible, then people shouldn't do it. I can understand subsidized infra for rural farms as a matter of food security policy[1], maybe. But these home aren't that, they're more "cottage in the mountains" kind of deal. [1] That is, not endorsing it, but considering it credible enough to file under "reasonable people can disagree".
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
rhacker 7y ago
I think a lot of people are going to read: "they're not going to be able to build there anymore" but the reality is - the same land will be used, but it will be massively terraformed. It won't change where we're allowed to build, it will change how many changes we need to make before the build can start.

pcwalton 7y ago

They are doing controlled burns. It's just a long process: https://e360.yale.edu/features/fighting-fire-with-fire-california-turns-to-prescribed-burning https://e360.yale.edu/features/fighting-fire-with-fire-calif... Wildfires are a complex problem—there is no one entity we can point our fingers at to blame—and most of the replies in this thread are failing to acknowledge this. Here is a Twitter thread about the issue that does a good job getting into the complexity of the problem: https://twitter.com/frkearns/status/1188912491620732929 https://twitter.com/frkearns/status/1188912491620732929

dehrmann 7y ago

I'm not entirely sure what people want them to do. A year ago, people were calling for PG&E to be shut down (then where would you get your power from?), and there was strong pressure to hold them liable. They got the message, and they're doing the one thing thing can do with only a ~year of notice: cutting off power when and where it's risky. Until more lines are buried, there's more maintenance around them in these areas, or PG&E is released of liability, this is what happens.

jartelt 7y ago
I imagine people would like PG&E to have a functioning website that shows where power is going to be turned off, to have a more predictable warning system so people can have more than a few hours notice of impending blackouts, to have better managed community centers so people can access essential resources during blackouts, etc. This is relatively basic stuff that a large corporation should be able to figure out with a ~year of notice. Instead there first few blackouts have been very poorly managed despite the fact that PG&E knew this was coming.
- dehrmann 7y ago
  > more than a few hours notice of impending blackouts I'm not sure if weather is predicable enough to do this in the micro sense. Obviously, warning that Sept-Nov might have blackouts is easy.
  - trentlott 7y ago
    Hmm, but we know weather like two weeks in advance We understand it isn't an exact and perfect prediction for the state of things half a month from now, but it's better than nothing. "your area is at risk of blackouts next week - 60%" is better than nothin'
dave5104 7y ago
Having the state (or even local municipalities) buy them out and turning the utility into a publicly-owned utility is one popular opinion I keep hearing. They might have more money to start burying lines if they didn't need to answer to investors.

bndw 7y ago

Regarding forest [mis]management-- If you're interested in learning more about this subject, the 7 episode Wildfire[0] podcast digs into forest habitats and chronicles our historical and present day management of them. [0] https://www.rei.com/blog/podcasts/wildfire-episode-one-trapped-by-fire https://www.rei.com/blog/podcasts/wildfire-episode-one-trapp...

rhacker 7y ago

lol, I keep seeing this excuse in every HN thread about this. The fatal flaw is that with all the tinder, the ONLY thing starting the fires IS the transmission lines. So even if we had some wack job going around with a gas can and a match, he's not doing as well as PG&E is doing. Beyond just that - I think it's kinda crazy with all the technology we have - no one has suggested adding a FLIR and non-FLIR camera to both directions on each transmission tower - and then add some machine learning (to push reports up).

justapassenger 7y ago

If you want to have stable system, just don’t have bugs in it, simple! /s It’s same situation - people focus on PGE, which is current big source of bugs. But fixing those bugs won’t make system stable, as new issues will always show up in such a complex system. You need to have well understood failure domains, and design a system to avoid cascading failures.

gnarlysasquatch 7y ago

I’d love to see studies: - comparing maintenance and faults to utilities in other areas - comparing likelihood of ignition and resulting damages given an ignition event There are lots of factors that combine into these events. Most of the discussion I’ve seen pick on one or two without considering the others. I guess it’s great if generating outrage is the goal, but it seems unlikely that will actually fix much.

not_a_cop75 7y ago

It seems like the liability should be much more shared than it currently is being, although the execs of PG&E can start improving things by not being such complete douchebags.