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I've seen nothing to convince me that most C-level management "experts" care about confounders, selection bias or, generally, the quality of any data they come

I've seen nothing to convince me that most C-level management "experts" care about confounders, selection bias or, generally, the quality of any data they come up with. Nor have I seen evidence that others in a position to call them on it care to. They either do not care, or do not know, how to reasonably use data to support a point or to make a decision. To include folks from the big-3 management consultants. Though to be fair, it's not like people down the org chart are usually much better at it.

bjornsing 7y ago
I can second this. Everybody wants to be “data driven”, but hardly anybody wants to adhere to the rigorous standards necessary for sound data analysis. I think it’s a bit unfair to point the finger at “C-level management” in particular though. The same kind of thinking can be observed in government agencies, in the legal system, even in academia. Statistics is just hard, and a lot of people are simply not interested and cognitively capable enough to get it right, sadly.
- gatherhunterer 7y ago
  > a lot of people are simply not interested and cognitively capable enough to get it right, sadly. This is how executives discredit engineers. Someone who believes themself to be intellectually superior to others and is socially inept enough to say so is an easy target to discredit. This is how you become a code monkey.
  - bjornsing 7y ago
    I don’t know, is it? I used to be a “code monkey”. To be honest I think the main reason I ended up in that position was that I saw myself as socially inept and thought that there was some kind of “big picture” that the mgmt/power focused people saw and I couldn’t see. I don’t any more, and my latest title is C-level (for a 100 person startup though - so nothing fancy). People love to set social norms that limit how much use others can make of their talents and abilities. But that’s usually not in the company’s best interest, and those norms seldom have the backing of senior management. With that said, of course you should be tactful and show your coworkers respect. People deserve respect not because they are smart, but because they are people.
- zipwitch 7y ago
  One piece of data is that there's an inverse correlation between CEO pay and company performance: https://cooleypubco.com/2016/07/25/new-study-shows-inverse-correlation-between-ceo-pay-and-performance-over-the-long-term/ https://cooleypubco.com/2016/07/25/new-study-shows-inverse-c...
  - Aeolun 7y ago
    It’s still positive in both cases though.
  - barry-cotter 7y ago
    Obvious confounds that should be adjusted for (1) Long periods of success lead to raises for the incumbent CEO and then the long period of success ends (2) The company is failing and needs a turnaround. No external person is willing to take the job for normal CEO pay for the company’s size because they know they’ll likely fail and that makes getting another CEO job substantially harder.
mlthoughts2018 7y ago
A good article on this, https://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/13/robin-hanson/who-cares-about-forecast-accuracy https://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/13/robin-hanson/who-car...
closed 7y ago
It seems worth noting that Anders Ericcson's handbook on expertise has chapters studying business expertise (though I get the feeling C level management gurus aren't reading it; there's an interesting chapter on entrepreneurs though!). https://www.amazon.com/Cambridge-Expertise-Performance-Handbooks-Psychology/dp/1316502619 https://www.amazon.com/Cambridge-Expertise-Performance-Handb...

bjornsing 7y ago

I can second this. Everybody wants to be “data driven”, but hardly anybody wants to adhere to the rigorous standards necessary for sound data analysis. I think it’s a bit unfair to point the finger at “C-level management” in particular though. The same kind of thinking can be observed in government agencies, in the legal system, even in academia. Statistics is just hard, and a lot of people are simply not interested and cognitively capable enough to get it right, sadly.

gatherhunterer 7y ago
> a lot of people are simply not interested and cognitively capable enough to get it right, sadly. This is how executives discredit engineers. Someone who believes themself to be intellectually superior to others and is socially inept enough to say so is an easy target to discredit. This is how you become a code monkey.
- bjornsing 7y ago
  I don’t know, is it? I used to be a “code monkey”. To be honest I think the main reason I ended up in that position was that I saw myself as socially inept and thought that there was some kind of “big picture” that the mgmt/power focused people saw and I couldn’t see. I don’t any more, and my latest title is C-level (for a 100 person startup though - so nothing fancy). People love to set social norms that limit how much use others can make of their talents and abilities. But that’s usually not in the company’s best interest, and those norms seldom have the backing of senior management. With that said, of course you should be tactful and show your coworkers respect. People deserve respect not because they are smart, but because they are people.
zipwitch 7y ago
One piece of data is that there's an inverse correlation between CEO pay and company performance: https://cooleypubco.com/2016/07/25/new-study-shows-inverse-correlation-between-ceo-pay-and-performance-over-the-long-term/ https://cooleypubco.com/2016/07/25/new-study-shows-inverse-c...
- Aeolun 7y ago
  It’s still positive in both cases though.
- barry-cotter 7y ago
  Obvious confounds that should be adjusted for (1) Long periods of success lead to raises for the incumbent CEO and then the long period of success ends (2) The company is failing and needs a turnaround. No external person is willing to take the job for normal CEO pay for the company’s size because they know they’ll likely fail and that makes getting another CEO job substantially harder.

mlthoughts2018 7y ago

A good article on this, https://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/13/robin-hanson/who-cares-about-forecast-accuracy https://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/13/robin-hanson/who-car...

closed 7y ago

It seems worth noting that Anders Ericcson's handbook on expertise has chapters studying business expertise (though I get the feeling C level management gurus aren't reading it; there's an interesting chapter on entrepreneurs though!). https://www.amazon.com/Cambridge-Expertise-Performance-Handbooks-Psychology/dp/1316502619 https://www.amazon.com/Cambridge-Expertise-Performance-Handb...