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The assumption is that this didn't happen. Hence you must remove these cases from your sample set while calculating probability
by rohit2412 7y ago
The assumption is that this didn't happen. Hence you must remove these cases from your sample set while calculating probability
- baddox 7y agoBut that means that something knows which door was the winning one. Either Monty knew which one it was, or whatever mysterious Agent is sampling from all the possible outcomes knew (because the Agent only sampled the ones where Monty happened to open a non-winning door). Either way, you're given the choice between having the 1 door you initially chose, or both of the other doors.
- leeoniya 7y ago> Either way, you're given the choice between having the 1 door you initially chose, or both of the other doors. i initially thought this too, but in both cases you're gonna see 2/3 doors. the thing that makes the difference is when he has the car (2/3 of the time), he has to tell you where it is. so the choice becomes between your unknown door and his 2/3 selectively chosen car door.
- rohit2412 7y agoMonty, the game show host, knows.
- dekhn 7y agothis is exactly what tripped me up when I first heard the problem and it took me a long time to understand the explanation because I didn't understand that Monty always opened the door that did not have the car behind it.
- mcphage 7y agoBut it’s from a game show. Like, an actual show. 1/3 of the time they can’t just stop filming and say "whoops let’s pretend that didn’t happen." That interpretation of the problem makes no sense whatsoever.