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There's no real time limit on this stuff. For example I blame the mongols 800 years ago for China's current problems.

by KaoruAoiShiho 7y ago

imtringued 7y ago
I blame the big bang for starting it at all.
- trequartista 7y ago
  “The story so far: In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.” - Douglas Adams
- jasonjayr 7y ago
  If you got 20 minutes, "history of the entire world, i guess" sums it up pretty nicely https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuCn8ux2gbs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuCn8ux2gbs
jerf 7y ago
At some point, you're being insulting by implicitly stripping everyone of the agency to deal with their own lives and problems. I don't think the last people in China that have ever had agency were 800 years ago. I don't know where that line is, but ~40 generations is definitely on the other side of it. (Probably isn't a "line" anyhow.)
- chaostheory 7y ago
  Maybe he forgot to put /s. At least that’s how I read it
- kuschku 7y ago
  A person has agency. People don’t. Isaac Asimov’s concept of psychohistory isn’t as much fiction as it seems, groups of people have huge inertia. A lot of the borders, and consequently sociocultural issues in central europe today are caused by kingdoms a millenium ago.
  - milesskorpen 7y ago
    Great example in Portugal - election results predicted by the pace of the Reconquista: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1181292177130999808.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1181292177130999808.html
  - jerf 7y ago
    Your counterargument proves too much; if "people" don't have agency then you can't blame anyone for anything, including being unable to blame the Mongols for anything about modern China. The concept of blame becomes entirely pointless. This may, in fact, be true. But in this specific context, it's an argument that proves too much.
  - repolfx 7y ago
    Psychohistory is pure fiction. The closest real equivalent is economics and economic predictions are essentially always wrong. I don't remember where exactly, but I recall reading that someone had done a mass study on economic forecasts and discovered that the only time they're correct was when they were predicting a continuation of whatever the current trend line was. Forecasting never managed to predict an actual change to the status quo, making such forecasts useless. We can't even measure GDP accurately in quarters already passed, let alone predict what it will be in future, and surely predicting the movement of GDP is the most basic task a psychohistorian could possibly set themselves.
    - milesskorpen 7y ago
      Our ability to make predictions based on psychohistory is pure fiction — but that doesn't mean that the rest of the comment in false. I think it'd be a real challenge to accurately predict the weather 168 hours from now, but that doesn't mean that the weather a week from isn't theoretically knowable or that it's not based on a series of knowable actions and reactions between now and then.
      - repolfx 7y ago
        If you assume people are just molecular reactions in their brain that could, theoretically, be modelled like any physical system then sure. But otherwise there's no useful way to predict the response of whole societies to arbitrary events beyond trivialities anyone could predict.
- tormeh 7y ago
  It's like this anywhere. Just think of any big Western city's housing situation. Most people don't want to pay all their salary in rent, yet consistently we vote and act to make it so. No agency.
- KaoruAoiShiho 7y ago
  It's a deterministic viewpoint. I don't think it's insulting, or at least I prescribe no morality it. It's just stuff that happened.
Leader2light 7y ago
Honestly, that is just stupid. My mom always says you need to make your own way in life. Can't blame your parents or anyone else. At the end of the day, it won't do you any good anyway.
Mirioron 7y ago
But at that point, can't we blame European colonialism on the Mongols too?
- KaoruAoiShiho 7y ago
  I think a lot of modern history could be blamed on the mongols yeah. But you can go further back too and blame the Yamnaya too.

There's no real time limit on this stuff. For example I blame the mongols 800 years ago for China's current problems.

imtringued 7y ago

I blame the big bang for starting it at all.

trequartista 7y ago
“The story so far: In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.” - Douglas Adams
jasonjayr 7y ago
If you got 20 minutes, "history of the entire world, i guess" sums it up pretty nicely https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuCn8ux2gbs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuCn8ux2gbs

jerf 7y ago

At some point, you're being insulting by implicitly stripping everyone of the agency to deal with their own lives and problems. I don't think the last people in China that have ever had agency were 800 years ago. I don't know where that line is, but ~40 generations is definitely on the other side of it. (Probably isn't a "line" anyhow.)

chaostheory 7y ago
Maybe he forgot to put /s. At least that’s how I read it
kuschku 7y ago
A person has agency. People don’t. Isaac Asimov’s concept of psychohistory isn’t as much fiction as it seems, groups of people have huge inertia. A lot of the borders, and consequently sociocultural issues in central europe today are caused by kingdoms a millenium ago.
- milesskorpen 7y ago
  Great example in Portugal - election results predicted by the pace of the Reconquista: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1181292177130999808.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1181292177130999808.html
- jerf 7y ago
  Your counterargument proves too much; if "people" don't have agency then you can't blame anyone for anything, including being unable to blame the Mongols for anything about modern China. The concept of blame becomes entirely pointless. This may, in fact, be true. But in this specific context, it's an argument that proves too much.
- repolfx 7y ago
  Psychohistory is pure fiction. The closest real equivalent is economics and economic predictions are essentially always wrong. I don't remember where exactly, but I recall reading that someone had done a mass study on economic forecasts and discovered that the only time they're correct was when they were predicting a continuation of whatever the current trend line was. Forecasting never managed to predict an actual change to the status quo, making such forecasts useless. We can't even measure GDP accurately in quarters already passed, let alone predict what it will be in future, and surely predicting the movement of GDP is the most basic task a psychohistorian could possibly set themselves.
  - milesskorpen 7y ago
    Our ability to make predictions based on psychohistory is pure fiction — but that doesn't mean that the rest of the comment in false. I think it'd be a real challenge to accurately predict the weather 168 hours from now, but that doesn't mean that the weather a week from isn't theoretically knowable or that it's not based on a series of knowable actions and reactions between now and then.
    - repolfx 7y ago
      If you assume people are just molecular reactions in their brain that could, theoretically, be modelled like any physical system then sure. But otherwise there's no useful way to predict the response of whole societies to arbitrary events beyond trivialities anyone could predict.
tormeh 7y ago
It's like this anywhere. Just think of any big Western city's housing situation. Most people don't want to pay all their salary in rent, yet consistently we vote and act to make it so. No agency.
KaoruAoiShiho 7y ago
It's a deterministic viewpoint. I don't think it's insulting, or at least I prescribe no morality it. It's just stuff that happened.

Leader2light 7y ago

Honestly, that is just stupid. My mom always says you need to make your own way in life. Can't blame your parents or anyone else. At the end of the day, it won't do you any good anyway.

Mirioron 7y ago

But at that point, can't we blame European colonialism on the Mongols too?

KaoruAoiShiho 7y ago
I think a lot of modern history could be blamed on the mongols yeah. But you can go further back too and blame the Yamnaya too.