4 ms·

It's an economic time bomb that the USA is happy to prop up. So the bomb will be defused for way longer than you think to maintain the status quo.

by anonu 7y ago

Robotbeat 7y ago
It’s rapidly becoming in the interests of US fossil fuel companies to let the oil price spike so they can reap massive profits. The status quo is massively changing due to fracking. EDIT: Look at this graph of US net imports of oil (etc). The bottom of the graph is zero. We are perhaps months away from being a net exporter. There are caveats, like the fact that the new oil (light) the US produces is not the oil (ie Heavy) that US refineries are optimized for, but this is temporary. Refineries can and will be retooled. Saudi Arabia cannot take the position of the US as primarily a customer (vs competitor) of oil for granted. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=m https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=m...
- mtgx 7y ago
  Also they probably figured out (finally) that the future of cars is electric vehicles, so they have a relatively short time to maximize profits. It's just that them maximizing profits for oil will also lead to an accelerated switch to EVs.
- sword_smith 7y ago
  That's an amazing graph. The other side of the same story is the US production of oil: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W...
  - dmurray 7y ago
    It's up about 40% since 1985? That seems really low. Population is up 33% since then.
    - sword_smith 7y ago
      Yes. US oil production fell from around 1971 until the fracking boom took off in 2008. Remember when everybody talked about Peak Oil? That's where it came from. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37416 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37416
- sambroner 7y ago
  Check this additional article out... really shows the growth in exports and its global impact. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=35352 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=35352
  - adventured 7y ago
    That's a poorly representative chart of the current situation. That data is from 2017, showing that exports hit 1.1 million barrels per day. Here is what it looks like now (hit 3.1 million barrles per day in June): https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCREXUS2&f=M https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M... And this: Sept 12: "Booming shale production helped the United States briefly overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world's top oil exporter for the first time earlier this year. US exports of crude topped 3 million barrels per day in June, according to the International Energy Agency, pushing its total oil exports to nearly 9 million barrels per day." https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/12/investing/us-oil-exports-saudi-arabia/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/12/investing/us-oil-exports-saud...
thiago_fm 7y ago
US is also running a similar deficit, 2 time bombs.
- adventured 7y ago
  Saudi Arabia has no economy except for fossil fuels. They've been trying for decades to build an alternate economy and every initiative has failed. The situations aren't remotely similar. The US controls the global reserve currency, is the world's largest economy, has a $65k GDP per capita, is a massive manufacturing economy (#2 behind China), is by far the world's leading technology economy, and has 2x the wealth of the next closest nation (China). That reserve currency is presently under zero threat from other currencies in terms of being replaced. Why does that matter? It gives the US the ultimate financial weapon for dealing with its federal debt. It's a special position no other nation has. Currently the US is paying about the same rate for its new debt as Greece and Italy. The Fed can continue to gradually press that lower until the point where the US is issuing zero yield debt as in the case of Japan. That means the US can - fortunately or unfortunately - afford to take on a lot more debt yet. Most likely 2x GDP or more, before there is a serious problem. If more aggressive debasement becomes necessary, the US owns about 35-38% of all the world's wealth, and has 40% of all the world's millionaires. The US is adding wealth faster than any other nation, and was responsible for adding ~55% of all the world's new millionaires in the prior year. That wealth, along with the massive US income base, represents the Fed's room for debasement to deal with the debt (inflating it away in one form or another). US output per capita is about 2.5x higher than Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has none of those advantages.

It's an economic time bomb that the USA is happy to prop up. So the bomb will be defused for way longer than you think to maintain the status quo.

by anonu 7y ago

It's an economic time bomb that the USA is happy to prop up. So the bomb will be defused for way longer than you think to maintain the status quo.

Robotbeat 7y ago

It’s rapidly becoming in the interests of US fossil fuel companies to let the oil price spike so they can reap massive profits. The status quo is massively changing due to fracking. EDIT: Look at this graph of US net imports of oil (etc). The bottom of the graph is zero. We are perhaps months away from being a net exporter. There are caveats, like the fact that the new oil (light) the US produces is not the oil (ie Heavy) that US refineries are optimized for, but this is temporary. Refineries can and will be retooled. Saudi Arabia cannot take the position of the US as primarily a customer (vs competitor) of oil for granted. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=m https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=m...

mtgx 7y ago
Also they probably figured out (finally) that the future of cars is electric vehicles, so they have a relatively short time to maximize profits. It's just that them maximizing profits for oil will also lead to an accelerated switch to EVs.
sword_smith 7y ago
That's an amazing graph. The other side of the same story is the US production of oil: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W...
- dmurray 7y ago
  It's up about 40% since 1985? That seems really low. Population is up 33% since then.
  - sword_smith 7y ago
    Yes. US oil production fell from around 1971 until the fracking boom took off in 2008. Remember when everybody talked about Peak Oil? That's where it came from. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37416 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37416
sambroner 7y ago
Check this additional article out... really shows the growth in exports and its global impact. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=35352 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=35352
- adventured 7y ago
  That's a poorly representative chart of the current situation. That data is from 2017, showing that exports hit 1.1 million barrels per day. Here is what it looks like now (hit 3.1 million barrles per day in June): https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCREXUS2&f=M https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M... And this: Sept 12: "Booming shale production helped the United States briefly overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world's top oil exporter for the first time earlier this year. US exports of crude topped 3 million barrels per day in June, according to the International Energy Agency, pushing its total oil exports to nearly 9 million barrels per day." https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/12/investing/us-oil-exports-saudi-arabia/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/12/investing/us-oil-exports-saud...

thiago_fm 7y ago

US is also running a similar deficit, 2 time bombs.

adventured 7y ago
Saudi Arabia has no economy except for fossil fuels. They've been trying for decades to build an alternate economy and every initiative has failed. The situations aren't remotely similar. The US controls the global reserve currency, is the world's largest economy, has a $65k GDP per capita, is a massive manufacturing economy (#2 behind China), is by far the world's leading technology economy, and has 2x the wealth of the next closest nation (China). That reserve currency is presently under zero threat from other currencies in terms of being replaced. Why does that matter? It gives the US the ultimate financial weapon for dealing with its federal debt. It's a special position no other nation has. Currently the US is paying about the same rate for its new debt as Greece and Italy. The Fed can continue to gradually press that lower until the point where the US is issuing zero yield debt as in the case of Japan. That means the US can - fortunately or unfortunately - afford to take on a lot more debt yet. Most likely 2x GDP or more, before there is a serious problem. If more aggressive debasement becomes necessary, the US owns about 35-38% of all the world's wealth, and has 40% of all the world's millionaires. The US is adding wealth faster than any other nation, and was responsible for adding ~55% of all the world's new millionaires in the prior year. That wealth, along with the massive US income base, represents the Fed's room for debasement to deal with the debt (inflating it away in one form or another). US output per capita is about 2.5x higher than Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has none of those advantages.